Predicting Avocado Production in Turkey for 2016-2025 Period Using Time Series Analysis

Abstract

The main aim of this study was to model avocado production in Turkey for 2016-2025 period using 1988-2015 years FAOSTAT data. Avocado production time series data for the 1988-2015 period was found non-stationary. Stationarity was obtained after taking the first difference of the time series. Three Exponential Smoothing (Holt, Brown and Damped) methods were compared to model avocado production. Brown exponential smoothing model was the most appropriate forecasting model for avocado production. We forecasted that the avocado production in Turkey will show increase from 2004 tons to 3156 tons for the 2016-2025 period. The results of this study could help policy makers to develop macro-level policies for food safety and more powerful strategies for better planning avocado production in Turkey for the future. 

Keywords

• Avocado,Brown method,Exponential Smoothing,Production forecasting,Time Series

Zaman Serisi Analiz Yöntemlerini Kullanarak 2016-2025 Dönemi Türkiye Avokado Üretiminin Belirlenmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın başlıca amacı, 1988-2015 yılları avokado üretim FAOSTAT verilerini kullanarak 2016-2025 dönemi için Türkiye’deki avokado üretimini modellemektir. 1988-2015 dönemi avokado üretimine ait zaman serisi verilerinin durağan olmadıgı belirlenmiştir. Durağanlık, zaman serilerinin ilk derece farkının alınmasıyla sağlanmıştır. Avokado üretimini tahminlemede üç üstel düzleştirme (Holt, Brown ve Damped) yöntemi kıyaslanmıştır. Brown üstsel düzleştirme modeli, avokado üretimini tahminlemede en uygun yöntem olarak tanımlanmıştır. Türkiye’deki avokado üretiminin 2016-2025 dönemi için 2004 tondan 3156 tona yükseleceği tespit edilmiştir. Bu araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçların, Türkiye’de gıda güvenliği için makro seviyede politikaların geliştirilmesine ve avokado üretiminin gelecekte daha iyi bir şekilde planlanmasına yardımcı olacağı düşünülmektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avokado,Brown yöntemi,Üstsel düzleştirme,Üretim tahminleme,Zaman serileri

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