Predicting Avocado Production in Turkey for 2016-2025 Period Using Time Series Analysis

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 2, 252 - 258, 30.06.2017

Melekşen Akın Sadiye Peral Eyduran

https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.306798

Cited By: 2

Öz

The main aim of this study
was to model avocado production in Turkey for 2016-2025 period using 1988-2015
years FAOSTAT data. Avocado production time series data for the 1988-2015
period was found non-stationary. Stationarity was obtained after taking the
first difference of the time series. Three Exponential Smoothing (Holt, Brown
and Damped) methods were compared to model avocado production. Brown
exponential smoothing model was the most appropriate forecasting model for
avocado production. We forecasted that the avocado production in Turkey will
show increase from 2004 tons to 3156 tons for the 2016-2025 period. The results
of this study could help policy makers to develop macro-level policies for food
safety and more powerful strategies for better planning avocado production in
Turkey for the future. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Avocado, Brown method, Exponential Smoothing, Production forecasting, Time Series

Zaman Serisi Analiz Yöntemlerini Kullanarak 2016-2025 Dönemi Türkiye Avokado Üretiminin Belirlenmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın başlıca
amacı, 1988-2015 yılları avokado üretim FAOSTAT verilerini kullanarak 2016-2025
dönemi için Türkiye’deki avokado üretimini modellemektir. 1988-2015 dönemi
avokado üretimine ait zaman serisi verilerinin durağan olmadıgı belirlenmiştir.
Durağanlık, zaman serilerinin ilk derece farkının alınmasıyla sağlanmıştır.
Avokado üretimini tahminlemede üç üstel düzleştirme (Holt, Brown ve Damped)
yöntemi kıyaslanmıştır. Brown üstsel düzleştirme modeli, avokado üretimini
tahminlemede en uygun yöntem olarak tanımlanmıştır. Türkiye’deki avokado
üretiminin 2016-2025 dönemi için 2004 tondan 3156 tona yükseleceği tespit
edilmiştir. Bu araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçların, Türkiye’de gıda güvenliği
için makro seviyede politikaların geliştirilmesine ve avokado üretiminin
gelecekte daha iyi bir şekilde planlanmasına yardımcı olacağı düşünülmektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Avokado, Brown yöntemi, Üstsel düzleştirme, Üretim tahminleme, Zaman serileri

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