Year 2019, Volume , Issue 22, Pages 93 - 106 2019-01-01

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND
MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND

Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY [1]

48 169

Analysis of investment decisions is an important macroeconomic subject due to the role of fluctuations in investments on the economic performance. It is argued that investment models need to take this effect into account if uncertainty has an impact on investment. Therefore, the effects of uncertainty on investments have recently been analyzed in the theoretical and empirical literature. While developing economies face more uncertainty than industrial countries do, most empirical studies consider the uncertainty-investment relationship for developed counties. In this paper, we analyzed the effect of the macro economic uncertainties on private investment in a developing county: Poland. We constructed a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to measure uncertainties. Then, we employed the bound testing procedure to cointegration analysis. Since our findings indicate a long-term relationship of the variables, we adopt an error correction model to capture the dynamic relationship. Our estimates imply that the real exchange rate, inflation and growth uncertainties effect private investments negatively in Poland. Therefore, we can conclude that macroeconomic stabilization is a necessary condition for the continuity of investments in Poland.

Yatırım kararlarının analizi, yatırımlardaki dalgalanmaların ekonomik performans üzerindeki etkileri nedeniyle önemli makro ekonomik konulardan biridir. Belirsizliğin yatırım kararları üzerinde etkisi varsa, yatırım modellerinin bu etkiyi dikkate almaları gerektiği ileri sürülmektedir. Bu nedenle, son zamanlarda belirsizliğin yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi teorik ve ampirik literatürde analiz edilmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler, gelişmiş ülkelere göre daha fazla belirsizlik ile karşı karşıya olmalarına rağmen, belirsizlik ve yatırım ilişkisi üzerine mevcut literatürün çoğu gelişmiş ülkeleri ele almaktadır. Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan bir ülke olan Polonya’da makro ekonomik belirsizliklerin özel yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisini analiz ettik. Belirsizliği ölçmek için genelleştirilmiş otoregresif koşullu değişen varyans (GARCH) modeli kurduk. Sonra eşbütünleşim analizi için sınır testi yaklaşımını uyguladık. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunduğundan, dinamik ilişkiyi görmek için hata düzeltme modeli kullandık. Sonuçlarımız, Polonya’da reel döviz kuru, enflasyon ve büyüme belirsizliklerinin özel yatırımları negatif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Böylece, Polonya’da makro ekonomik istikrarın yatırımları devamlılığı için gerekli bir koşul olduğu sonucuna vardık.

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Primary Language en
Subjects Social
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Author: Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY (Primary Author)
Institution: Hacettepe Üniversitesi
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date: January 1, 2019

Bibtex @research article { ulikidince404607, journal = {Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi}, issn = {1307-9832}, eissn = {1307-9859}, address = {Kenan ÇELİK}, year = {2019}, volume = {}, pages = {93 - 106}, doi = {10.18092/ulikidince.404607}, title = {MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND}, key = {cite}, author = {ÖGE GÜNEY, Pelin} }
APA ÖGE GÜNEY, P . (2019). MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (22), 93-106. DOI: 10.18092/ulikidince.404607
MLA ÖGE GÜNEY, P . "MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2019): 93-106 <http://dergipark.org.tr/ulikidince/issue/38199/404607>
Chicago ÖGE GÜNEY, P . "MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2019): 93-106
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND AU - Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.18092/ulikidince.404607 DO - 10.18092/ulikidince.404607 T2 - Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 93 EP - 106 VL - IS - 22 SN - 1307-9832-1307-9859 M3 - doi: 10.18092/ulikidince.404607 UR - https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.404607 Y2 - 2018 ER -
EndNote %0 International Journal of Economics and Administrative Studies MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND %A Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY %T MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND %D 2019 %J Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi %P 1307-9832-1307-9859 %V %N 22 %R doi: 10.18092/ulikidince.404607 %U 10.18092/ulikidince.404607
ISNAD ÖGE GÜNEY, Pelin . "MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi / 22 (January 2019): 93-106. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.404607
AMA ÖGE GÜNEY P . MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND. IJEAS. 2019; (22): 93-106.
Vancouver ÖGE GÜNEY P . MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi. 2019; (22): 106-93.