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Konut Fiyatlarının Hedonik Fiyat Modeli Çerçevesinde Semiparametrik Tahmin Kullanılarak Belirlenmesi: İstanbul Konut Piyasası Örneği Durum Çalışması

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 3, 561 - 575, 31.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.747705

Öz

Konutların sahip oldukları birbirinden farklı özellikler, konut piyasalarına heterojen yapı kazandırmıştır. Dolayısıyla konut piyasası hedonik fiyat modeli ile analiz edilebilir. Bu doğrultuda çalışma, heterojen yapıya sahip olan konut piyasasındaki fiyat değişimlerini takip edebilmek amacıyla, konutların sahip olduğu farklı karakteristik özelliklerin konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerinin ortaya çıkarılması bakımından önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada amaçlanan ise İstanbul ili için apartman dairesi türündeki konut özelliklerinin fiyat üzerindeki etkisinin hedonik fiyat modeli kapsamında incelenmesidir. Bu amaçla 974 daire, konut fiyatları ve fiyatları etkileyen faktörler için semiparametrik regresyon modelleri ile tahmin yapılmıştır. Çünkü semiparametrik tahmin, veri setini belirli varsayımlara zorlamaması ve bağımlı değişken üzerinde doğrusal olmayan etkiye sahip değişken yapısı söz konusu olduğu durumda bu yapıyı dikkate alması bakımından parametrik tahmine göre daha üstündür. Elde edilen bulgulara göre satılık konut fiyatlarını (apartman dairesi) en çok etkileyen özellikler olarak sırayla otopark değişkeni, krediye uygunluk değişkeni ve asansör değişkeni olarak belirlenmiştir. Nonparametrik olarak ele alınan değişkenlerden ise metrekare değişkeninin 400 m2 den sonra ev fiyatları üzerinde azaltıcı bir etki yarattığı, bina yaşının ise 15 yıldan sonra fiyatlar üzerinde pozitif etki yarattığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Alkay, E. (2008). Housing submarkets in Istanbul. International Real Estate Review, 11(1), 113-127. Retrieved from https://econpapers.repec.org
  • Arıkan, F. E. (2008). Ev kiralarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik fiyat yöntemi ile belirlenmesi (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü,İstanbul.
  • Ayvaz, Ö. (2002). Emlak fiyatlarının hedonik model ile araştırılması: İzmir örneği (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstütüsü, İzmir.
  • Baldemir, E. K., Kesbiç, C.Y. ve İnci, M. (2007, Mayıs). Emlak piyasasında hedonik talep parametrelerinin tahminlenmesi : Muğla örneği [Estimating hedonic demand parameters in real estate market: The caseof Muğla]. 8. Türkiye Ekonometri ve İstatistik Kongresi'nde sunulan bildiri. Malatya. Retrieved from https://docplayer.biz.tr/7196332-Emlak-piyasasinda-hedoniktalep-parametlerinin-tahminlenmesi-mugla-ornegi.html
  • Chau, K. W. and Chin, T. L. (2003). A critical rewiev of literature on the hedonic price model. International Journal for Housing and its Applications, 27(2), 145-165. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com
  • Çağlayan, E. and Arikan, E. (2011). Determinants of house prices in Istanbul: a quantile regression approach. Qual Quant 45, 305–317. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-009-9296-x
  • Çağlayan Akay, E. ve Kangallı Uyar, S.G. (2017). Semiparametrik tahmin yöntemi. R Uygulamalı Ekonometri içinde. İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
  • Demir, D. and Yayar, R. (2014). Hedonic estimation of housing market prices in Turkey. Erciyes Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, (43), 67-82. https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.42448
  • Filho, C. M. and Bin, O. (2003). Estimation of hedonic price function via additive nonparametric regression. Empirical Economics, 30(1),93-114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-004-0224-6
  • Goodman, A. C. (1978). Hedonic prices, price indices and housing markets. Journal of Urban Economics, 5(4), 471-484. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(78)90004-9
  • Halvorsen, R. and Palmquist, R. (1980, June). The interpretation of dummy variables in semilogrithmic regressions. American Economic Review, 70(3), 474-475. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Horowitz, J. L. (2009). Semiparametric and nonparametric methods in econometrics. New York: Springer
  • Kain, J. F. and Quigley, J. M. (1970). Measuring the value of housing quality. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 65(33), 532-548. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Kangallı Uyar, S.G. ve Yayla, N. (2016). Konut fiyatlarının hedonik fiyat yaklaşımına göre mekansal ekonometrik modeller ile tahmini : İstanbul konut piyasası örneği [The estimation of housing prices within the frame of hedonic pricing approach by spatial econometric models: the case of Istanbul housing market]. Social Sciences, 11(4), 326-342. http://dx.doi.org/10.12739/NWSA.2016.11.4.3C0153
  • Kaya, A. (2012). Türkiye'de konut fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik fiyat modeli ile belirlenmesi. (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Lancester, K. J. (1966). A new approach to consumer theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74(2),132- 157. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Maslow, A. H. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review, 50(4), 370-396. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0054346
  • Macedo, R. (1996). Hedonic price models with spatial effects: an application to the housing market of Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Revista Brasiliera de Economia, 29(3), 343-365. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org
  • Neyman, J. (1937). On the two different aspects of the representative method: The method of stratified sampling and the method of purposive selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 97(4), 558-625. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Ogwang, T. and Wang, B, (2002). A hedonic price function for a northhern BC community. Social Indicators Research , 61(3), 285- 296. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Ozturk, O. and Kavlak, K. B. (2019). Statistical inference using stratified ranked set samples from finite populations. In C. N. Bouza-Herrera and A.I.F Al-Omari (Eds.), Ranked Set Sampling (pp. 157- 168). New York: Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815044-3.00012-5
  • Ozus, E., Dokmeci, V., Kiroglu, G. and Egdemir, G. (2007). Spatial analysis of residential prices in Istanbul. European Planning Studies, 15(5), 707-721. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654310701214085
  • Neyman, J. (1937). Outline of a theory of statistical estimation based on the classical theory of probability. Reader in Statistics, 236(767), 333-380. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1937.0005
  • Parmeter, C. H. (2007). Nonparametric estimation of a hedonic price function. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(3), 695-699. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Pearson, K. (1902a). On the systematic fitting of curves to observations an measurements I. Biometrika, 1(3), 265-303. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Pearson, K. (1902b). On the systematic fitting of curves to observations an measurements II. Biometrika, 2(1), 1-23. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Powel, J. L. (1994). Estimation of semiparametric models. In R. F. Engle and D. L. McFadden (Eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, (pp. 2443-2521). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4412(05)80010-8
  • Rao, T. J. and Rao, C. R. (2016). Review of certain recent advances in randomized response techniques. In A. Chaudhuri, C. T. Christofides and C.R. Rao (Eds.), Handbook of Statistics (pp. 1-11). https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.host.2016.01.001
  • Ridker, R. K. and Henning, J. A. (1974). The determinants of residential property values with special reference to air pollution. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 49(2), 246-257. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Robinson, P. (1988). Semiparametric econometrics: a survey. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 3(1), 35- 51. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 82(1), 34-55. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Salinas, V. I., Sedory, S. A. and Singh, S. (2019). Calibrated estimator of population mean using twostage ranked set sampling. In C. N. Bouza-Herrera and A.I.F Al-Omari (Eds.), Ranked Set Sampling (pp. 219-327). United Kingdom: Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12- 815044-3.00016-2
  • Selim, S. (2008). Derterminants of house prices in Turkey: a hedonic regression model. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 9(1), 65-76. https://doi.org/10.31671/dogus.2019.223
  • Selim, H. (2009). Derterminants of house prices in Turkey: Hedonic regression versus artificial neural network, Expert Systems with Applications, 36(2), 2843-2852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2008.01.044
  • Stadelmann, D. (2010). Which factors capitalize into house prices? A bayesian averaging approach. Journal of Housing Economics, 19(3),180-204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2010.07.002
  • Straszheim, M. R. (1973). Estimation of the demand for urban housing services from household interview data. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(1), 1-8. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Straszheim, M. R. (1974). Hedonic estimation of housing market prices: a further comment. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 56(3), 404-406. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Wegman, E. J. (1972). Nonparametric probability density estimation: I. A summary of available methods. Technometrics, 14(3), 533.546. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Wittowsky, D., Hoekveld, J., Welsch, J. and Steier, M. (2020). Residential housing prices: impact of housing characteristics, accessibility and neighboring apartments: A case study of Dortmund, Germany. Urban Planning and Transport Research, 8(1),44-70. https://doi.org/10.1080/21650020.2019.1704429

Determining Housing Prices Using The Semiparametric Estimation Within The Hedonic Price Model Framework: Case Study of Istanbul Housing Market Example

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 3, 561 - 575, 31.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.747705

Öz

Different properties of the houses have given heterogeneous structure to the housing markets. Therefore, the housing market can be analyzed with the hedonic price model In this direction, this study is important in terms of revealing the effects of different characteristics of houses on housing prices to follow the price changes in the housing market. The study aims to examine the effect of flat-type residential properties in İstanbul on the price within the scope of hedonic price model. For this purpose, estimation was made with semiparametric regression models for 974 flat-house, housing prices and factors affecting prices. In as much as the semiparametric estimation is superior to parametric estimation in that it doesn’t force the data set to certain assumptions and takes into account the variable structure that has a nonlinear effect on the dependent variable. According to the findings, the properties that affect the housing prices (apartment) for sale are determined as the parking variable, credit eligibility variable, and elevator variable respectively. As for the nonparametric variables, it was concluded that the square meter variable had a reducing effect on house prices after 400 m2, and the age of housing had a positive effect on prices after 15 years.

Kaynakça

  • Alkay, E. (2008). Housing submarkets in Istanbul. International Real Estate Review, 11(1), 113-127. Retrieved from https://econpapers.repec.org
  • Arıkan, F. E. (2008). Ev kiralarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik fiyat yöntemi ile belirlenmesi (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü,İstanbul.
  • Ayvaz, Ö. (2002). Emlak fiyatlarının hedonik model ile araştırılması: İzmir örneği (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstütüsü, İzmir.
  • Baldemir, E. K., Kesbiç, C.Y. ve İnci, M. (2007, Mayıs). Emlak piyasasında hedonik talep parametrelerinin tahminlenmesi : Muğla örneği [Estimating hedonic demand parameters in real estate market: The caseof Muğla]. 8. Türkiye Ekonometri ve İstatistik Kongresi'nde sunulan bildiri. Malatya. Retrieved from https://docplayer.biz.tr/7196332-Emlak-piyasasinda-hedoniktalep-parametlerinin-tahminlenmesi-mugla-ornegi.html
  • Chau, K. W. and Chin, T. L. (2003). A critical rewiev of literature on the hedonic price model. International Journal for Housing and its Applications, 27(2), 145-165. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com
  • Çağlayan, E. and Arikan, E. (2011). Determinants of house prices in Istanbul: a quantile regression approach. Qual Quant 45, 305–317. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-009-9296-x
  • Çağlayan Akay, E. ve Kangallı Uyar, S.G. (2017). Semiparametrik tahmin yöntemi. R Uygulamalı Ekonometri içinde. İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
  • Demir, D. and Yayar, R. (2014). Hedonic estimation of housing market prices in Turkey. Erciyes Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, (43), 67-82. https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.42448
  • Filho, C. M. and Bin, O. (2003). Estimation of hedonic price function via additive nonparametric regression. Empirical Economics, 30(1),93-114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-004-0224-6
  • Goodman, A. C. (1978). Hedonic prices, price indices and housing markets. Journal of Urban Economics, 5(4), 471-484. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(78)90004-9
  • Halvorsen, R. and Palmquist, R. (1980, June). The interpretation of dummy variables in semilogrithmic regressions. American Economic Review, 70(3), 474-475. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Horowitz, J. L. (2009). Semiparametric and nonparametric methods in econometrics. New York: Springer
  • Kain, J. F. and Quigley, J. M. (1970). Measuring the value of housing quality. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 65(33), 532-548. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Kangallı Uyar, S.G. ve Yayla, N. (2016). Konut fiyatlarının hedonik fiyat yaklaşımına göre mekansal ekonometrik modeller ile tahmini : İstanbul konut piyasası örneği [The estimation of housing prices within the frame of hedonic pricing approach by spatial econometric models: the case of Istanbul housing market]. Social Sciences, 11(4), 326-342. http://dx.doi.org/10.12739/NWSA.2016.11.4.3C0153
  • Kaya, A. (2012). Türkiye'de konut fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik fiyat modeli ile belirlenmesi. (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Lancester, K. J. (1966). A new approach to consumer theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74(2),132- 157. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Maslow, A. H. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review, 50(4), 370-396. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0054346
  • Macedo, R. (1996). Hedonic price models with spatial effects: an application to the housing market of Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Revista Brasiliera de Economia, 29(3), 343-365. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org
  • Neyman, J. (1937). On the two different aspects of the representative method: The method of stratified sampling and the method of purposive selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 97(4), 558-625. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Ogwang, T. and Wang, B, (2002). A hedonic price function for a northhern BC community. Social Indicators Research , 61(3), 285- 296. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Ozturk, O. and Kavlak, K. B. (2019). Statistical inference using stratified ranked set samples from finite populations. In C. N. Bouza-Herrera and A.I.F Al-Omari (Eds.), Ranked Set Sampling (pp. 157- 168). New York: Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815044-3.00012-5
  • Ozus, E., Dokmeci, V., Kiroglu, G. and Egdemir, G. (2007). Spatial analysis of residential prices in Istanbul. European Planning Studies, 15(5), 707-721. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654310701214085
  • Neyman, J. (1937). Outline of a theory of statistical estimation based on the classical theory of probability. Reader in Statistics, 236(767), 333-380. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1937.0005
  • Parmeter, C. H. (2007). Nonparametric estimation of a hedonic price function. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(3), 695-699. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Pearson, K. (1902a). On the systematic fitting of curves to observations an measurements I. Biometrika, 1(3), 265-303. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Pearson, K. (1902b). On the systematic fitting of curves to observations an measurements II. Biometrika, 2(1), 1-23. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Powel, J. L. (1994). Estimation of semiparametric models. In R. F. Engle and D. L. McFadden (Eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, (pp. 2443-2521). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4412(05)80010-8
  • Rao, T. J. and Rao, C. R. (2016). Review of certain recent advances in randomized response techniques. In A. Chaudhuri, C. T. Christofides and C.R. Rao (Eds.), Handbook of Statistics (pp. 1-11). https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.host.2016.01.001
  • Ridker, R. K. and Henning, J. A. (1974). The determinants of residential property values with special reference to air pollution. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 49(2), 246-257. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Robinson, P. (1988). Semiparametric econometrics: a survey. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 3(1), 35- 51. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 82(1), 34-55. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Salinas, V. I., Sedory, S. A. and Singh, S. (2019). Calibrated estimator of population mean using twostage ranked set sampling. In C. N. Bouza-Herrera and A.I.F Al-Omari (Eds.), Ranked Set Sampling (pp. 219-327). United Kingdom: Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12- 815044-3.00016-2
  • Selim, S. (2008). Derterminants of house prices in Turkey: a hedonic regression model. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 9(1), 65-76. https://doi.org/10.31671/dogus.2019.223
  • Selim, H. (2009). Derterminants of house prices in Turkey: Hedonic regression versus artificial neural network, Expert Systems with Applications, 36(2), 2843-2852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2008.01.044
  • Stadelmann, D. (2010). Which factors capitalize into house prices? A bayesian averaging approach. Journal of Housing Economics, 19(3),180-204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2010.07.002
  • Straszheim, M. R. (1973). Estimation of the demand for urban housing services from household interview data. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(1), 1-8. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Straszheim, M. R. (1974). Hedonic estimation of housing market prices: a further comment. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 56(3), 404-406. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Wegman, E. J. (1972). Nonparametric probability density estimation: I. A summary of available methods. Technometrics, 14(3), 533.546. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
  • Wittowsky, D., Hoekveld, J., Welsch, J. and Steier, M. (2020). Residential housing prices: impact of housing characteristics, accessibility and neighboring apartments: A case study of Dortmund, Germany. Urban Planning and Transport Research, 8(1),44-70. https://doi.org/10.1080/21650020.2019.1704429
Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Tuğçe Acar 0000-0001-9223-0089

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2020
Kabul Tarihi 20 Aralık 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Acar, T. (2020). Determining Housing Prices Using The Semiparametric Estimation Within The Hedonic Price Model Framework: Case Study of Istanbul Housing Market Example. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 561-575. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.747705