BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ AÇIĞIN NEDENLERİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZ

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3, 221 - 237, 12.08.2010

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının
nedenlerini, vektör otoregresif (vector autoregression: VAR) yöntemi
yardımıyla, 1992:01-2007-12 dönemi aylık verileriyle analiz etmektir.
Çalışmanın ampirik kanıtlarına göre, reel döviz kuru, reel faiz oranı ve imkb
Türkiye’de cari açığın belirleyicilerini açıklayan en önemli değişkenlerdir.
Bunun yanı sıra, ulusal gelirin cari açık üzerindeki etkisi düşük kalmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Aleksander, A. (2006) “The Determinants and Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union", William Davidson Institute Working Paper, No 287.
  • Bussière, M., Fratzscher, M. ve Müller, G. (2004) “Current Account Dynamics in OECD and EU Acceding Countries–an Intertemporal Approach” ECB Working Paper, No 311, February
  • Calderon, C.A., Chong, A. ve Loayza, Norman V. (2002) “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries”, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 2(1), ss.1-31.
  • Cashin, P. ve McDermott, C. J. (1996) “Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?”, IMF Working Papers, No: 96/85, International Monetary Fund, Revised
  • Charezma, W. W. ve Deadman D. F. (1993), New Directions in Econometric Practic, USA: Edward Elgar.
  • Chinn, M. D. ve Lee, J. (2005) “Three Current Account Balances: A "SemiStructuralist" Interpretation”, NBER Working Papers, No: 11853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Corsetti, G., Pesenti, P. ve Roubini N. (1999) “Paper Tigers? A model of the Asian Crisis”, European Economic Review, 43 (7), ss. 1211-1236.
  • Çakman, K. ve Çakmak, U. (2007) “Cari İşllemler Açığı, Net Sermaye Hareketi, Kur Değişim Hızı, ve Reel Kur Encdeksi: Bağlamdaki İkilimlerin Bir Analizi”, Finans Politik&Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44 (511), ss. 28-37.
  • Davidson, R. ve Mackinnon J .G. (1993) Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, London: Oxford University Press. Debelle, G. ve Faruqee, H. (1996) “What Determines the Currents Account?”, IMF Working Paper , No: 96-58.
  • Dornbusch, R. ve Fischer, S. (1990) Macroeconomics, McGRAW-HILL International Editions. Edson, H. (2003) “Do Indicators of Financial Crisis Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 8 (1), ss. 11-53.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song, Inc Erkılıç, S. (2006) “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri”, Yayınlanmamış Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü, Kasım 2006, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • Frenkel, J., Razin, A. ve Yuen, C. (1996) Fiscal Policies and Growth in the World Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT. Freund, C. ve F. Warnock. (2005) “Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall?”, in R.
  • Clarida (Ed.): G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, The University of Chicago Press, forthcoming.
  • Glick, R. ve Rogoff, K. (1995) “Global versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 35, ss. 159-192.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods", Econometrica, 37, ss.553-560.
  • Greene, W. H. (1993) Econometric Analysis, Second Edition, Prentice-Hall Publication. Greenwood, J. (1983) "Expectations, the Exchange Rate and the Current Account", Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, ss.543-69.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (1995) Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill, 3 Baskı. Johansen, S. (1995) Likelihood Based Inference in Cointegrating Vector Autoregressive Models, NewYork: Oxford University Press.
  • Kandil, M and Joshua, G. (2002) “The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U.S. Balance of Payment”, IMF Working Papers, WP/02/45.
  • Kaufmann, S., Scharler, J. ve Winckler, G. (2002) “The Austrian Current Account Deficit: Driven by Twin Deficits or by Intertemporal Expentiture Allocation?”, Empirical Economics, 27,ss.529-542.
  • Leiderman, L. ve Razin, A. (1991) “Determinants of External Imbalances: The Role of Taxes, Government Spending and Productivity”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 5, ss.421-450.
  • Mansoorian, A. (1998) “Habits and Durability in Consumption, and the Dynamics of the Current Account”, Journal of International Economics, 44, ss.69-82.
  • Mendoza, E. (1991) “Capital Controls and the Gains from Trade in a Business Cycle Model of a Small Open Economy'', IMF Staff Papers, 38, ss.480-505.
  • Mundel, R. A. (1968) International Economics, New York: Macmillan.
  • Obstfeld, M. ve Rogoff, K. (1995) “The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account”. In G. Grossman and K. Rogoff (eds.), Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3. Amsterdam: North Holland.
  • Özatay, F. (2006) “Cari İşlemler Dengesine İlişkin İki Yapısal Sorun ve Mikro Reform Gereği, Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Dış Ticaret Politikaları”, 1(1), ss.38-50.
  • Özmen, E. (2004) “Cari Açık ve Ekonomi Politikaları Üzerine” İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 223, ss.5-19.
  • Radelet, S. ve J. Sachs (2000) “The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis” in Krugman, P. (eds) Currency Crises, NBER and Chicago University press.
  • Sims, C.A. (1980) “Macroeconomics and Reality,” Econometrica, 48, ss. 1-49.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (1991), Uluslararası İktisat, Güzem Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Stockman, A. (1987) "The Equilibrium Approach to Exchange Rates'', Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review, March-April, ss.12- 31.
  • Svensson, L. ve Razin, A. (1983) "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect", Journal of Political Economy, 91, ss.97-125.
  • Taylor, Alan M, (2002) “A century of current account dynamics”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, ss.725-748.
Yıl 2009, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3, 221 - 237, 12.08.2010

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Aleksander, A. (2006) “The Determinants and Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union", William Davidson Institute Working Paper, No 287.
  • Bussière, M., Fratzscher, M. ve Müller, G. (2004) “Current Account Dynamics in OECD and EU Acceding Countries–an Intertemporal Approach” ECB Working Paper, No 311, February
  • Calderon, C.A., Chong, A. ve Loayza, Norman V. (2002) “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries”, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 2(1), ss.1-31.
  • Cashin, P. ve McDermott, C. J. (1996) “Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?”, IMF Working Papers, No: 96/85, International Monetary Fund, Revised
  • Charezma, W. W. ve Deadman D. F. (1993), New Directions in Econometric Practic, USA: Edward Elgar.
  • Chinn, M. D. ve Lee, J. (2005) “Three Current Account Balances: A "SemiStructuralist" Interpretation”, NBER Working Papers, No: 11853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Corsetti, G., Pesenti, P. ve Roubini N. (1999) “Paper Tigers? A model of the Asian Crisis”, European Economic Review, 43 (7), ss. 1211-1236.
  • Çakman, K. ve Çakmak, U. (2007) “Cari İşllemler Açığı, Net Sermaye Hareketi, Kur Değişim Hızı, ve Reel Kur Encdeksi: Bağlamdaki İkilimlerin Bir Analizi”, Finans Politik&Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44 (511), ss. 28-37.
  • Davidson, R. ve Mackinnon J .G. (1993) Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, London: Oxford University Press. Debelle, G. ve Faruqee, H. (1996) “What Determines the Currents Account?”, IMF Working Paper , No: 96-58.
  • Dornbusch, R. ve Fischer, S. (1990) Macroeconomics, McGRAW-HILL International Editions. Edson, H. (2003) “Do Indicators of Financial Crisis Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 8 (1), ss. 11-53.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song, Inc Erkılıç, S. (2006) “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri”, Yayınlanmamış Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü, Kasım 2006, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • Frenkel, J., Razin, A. ve Yuen, C. (1996) Fiscal Policies and Growth in the World Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT. Freund, C. ve F. Warnock. (2005) “Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall?”, in R.
  • Clarida (Ed.): G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, The University of Chicago Press, forthcoming.
  • Glick, R. ve Rogoff, K. (1995) “Global versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 35, ss. 159-192.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods", Econometrica, 37, ss.553-560.
  • Greene, W. H. (1993) Econometric Analysis, Second Edition, Prentice-Hall Publication. Greenwood, J. (1983) "Expectations, the Exchange Rate and the Current Account", Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, ss.543-69.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (1995) Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill, 3 Baskı. Johansen, S. (1995) Likelihood Based Inference in Cointegrating Vector Autoregressive Models, NewYork: Oxford University Press.
  • Kandil, M and Joshua, G. (2002) “The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U.S. Balance of Payment”, IMF Working Papers, WP/02/45.
  • Kaufmann, S., Scharler, J. ve Winckler, G. (2002) “The Austrian Current Account Deficit: Driven by Twin Deficits or by Intertemporal Expentiture Allocation?”, Empirical Economics, 27,ss.529-542.
  • Leiderman, L. ve Razin, A. (1991) “Determinants of External Imbalances: The Role of Taxes, Government Spending and Productivity”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 5, ss.421-450.
  • Mansoorian, A. (1998) “Habits and Durability in Consumption, and the Dynamics of the Current Account”, Journal of International Economics, 44, ss.69-82.
  • Mendoza, E. (1991) “Capital Controls and the Gains from Trade in a Business Cycle Model of a Small Open Economy'', IMF Staff Papers, 38, ss.480-505.
  • Mundel, R. A. (1968) International Economics, New York: Macmillan.
  • Obstfeld, M. ve Rogoff, K. (1995) “The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account”. In G. Grossman and K. Rogoff (eds.), Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3. Amsterdam: North Holland.
  • Özatay, F. (2006) “Cari İşlemler Dengesine İlişkin İki Yapısal Sorun ve Mikro Reform Gereği, Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Dış Ticaret Politikaları”, 1(1), ss.38-50.
  • Özmen, E. (2004) “Cari Açık ve Ekonomi Politikaları Üzerine” İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 223, ss.5-19.
  • Radelet, S. ve J. Sachs (2000) “The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis” in Krugman, P. (eds) Currency Crises, NBER and Chicago University press.
  • Sims, C.A. (1980) “Macroeconomics and Reality,” Econometrica, 48, ss. 1-49.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (1991), Uluslararası İktisat, Güzem Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Stockman, A. (1987) "The Equilibrium Approach to Exchange Rates'', Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review, March-April, ss.12- 31.
  • Svensson, L. ve Razin, A. (1983) "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect", Journal of Political Economy, 91, ss.97-125.
  • Taylor, Alan M, (2002) “A century of current account dynamics”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, ss.725-748.
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil tr; en
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Osman Peker Bu kişi benim

Hakan Hotunluoğlu Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2010
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2009 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Peker, O., & Hotunluoğlu, H. (2010). TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ AÇIĞIN NEDENLERİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZ. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23(3), 221-237.

4aoDA4.pngithenticate-badge-rec-positive.png800px-Open-Access-PLoS.svg.png