TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ AÇIĞIN NEDENLERİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZ

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3, 221 - 237, 12.08.2010

Osman Peker Hakan Hotunluoğlu

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının
nedenlerini, vektör otoregresif (vector autoregression: VAR) yöntemi
yardımıyla, 1992:01-2007-12 dönemi aylık verileriyle analiz etmektir.
Çalışmanın ampirik kanıtlarına göre, reel döviz kuru, reel faiz oranı ve imkb
Türkiye’de cari açığın belirleyicilerini açıklayan en önemli değişkenlerdir.
Bunun yanı sıra, ulusal gelirin cari açık üzerindeki etkisi düşük kalmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cari işlemler açığı, VAR, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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