Ruh Halimizi Etkileyen Hava Durumu Parametreleri Borsa Verilerini De Etkiler Mi?

Abstract

1970'li yıllarda genel kabul, yatırımcıların rasyonel davrandığı iken, yatırım kararlarının sadece rasyonel bir yaklaşımla açıklanamayacağı gerçeği 1980'lerin başında gündeme gelmeye başlamıştır. Bu kapsamda yapılan çalışmalar, bireylerin yatırım konusunda karar verme süreçlerindeki iç ve dış faktörleri incelemeye yönelik olarak çeşitlenmiştir. Psikoloji, pazarlama, sosyoloji gibi sosyal bilimlerden beslenen yatırımcı davranışlarına ilişkin görüşler, karar verme sürecinde birçok faktörün etkili olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu bağlamda karar verme literatüründe en fazla ağırlık verilen unsurlardan biri duygulardır. Farklı çevre koşulları ile doğrudan ilişkili olan duygular, bu şekilde yatırımcı kararlarında da etkili olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu araştırma, hava koşullarının yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkisini incelemek amacıyla yapılmıştır. Çok boyutlu yatırım unsurlarına ilişkin veriler geniş bir zaman diliminde toplanmış ve farklı hava koşulları ile ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, yatırımların en önemli parametreleri olan işlem hacmi ve işlem tutarının havanın basıncı, sıcaklığı ve nemi ile ilgili olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Benzer şekilde, işlem getirilerinin de hava sıcaklığı ile ilişkili olduğu bulundu.

Keywords

• Karar Verme
• Yatırım
• Yatırımcı Davranışı
• Davranışsal Finans

Do Weather Parameters That Affect Our Mood Also Affect Stock Market Data?

Abstract

While the general acceptance in the 1970s was that investors acted rationally, the fact that investment decisions could not be explained only with a rational approach began to come to the fore in the early 1980s. Studies conducted in this context have diversified to examine the internal and external factors on the decision-making processes of individuals on investment. Opinions on investor behavior, which are fed by social sciences such as psychology, marketing, and sociology, have revealed that many factors are effective in the decision-making process. In this context, one of the most weighted elements in the decision-making literature is emotions. Emotions, which are directly related to different environmental conditions, have shown that they are also effective in investor decisions this way. This research was conducted to examine the effect of weather conditions on investment decisions. Data on multidimensional investment elements have been collected over a wide period and their relationships with different weather conditions have been examined. As a result, it has been concluded that the most important parameters of the investments, the transaction volume, and the transaction amount, are related to the pressure, temperature, and humidity of the weather. Similarly, transaction returns were also found to be related to air temperature.

Keywords

• Decision Making
• Investment
• Investor Behavior
• Behavioral Finance

References

1. Aaker JL, Williams P. (1998). Empathy versus pride: The influence of emotional appeals across cultures. Journal of Consumer Research 25: 241-61.
2. Allen, A. M. and Fisher, G. J. (1978). Ambient Temperature Effects on Paired Associate Learning, Ergonomics 21, 2, pp. 95-101.
3. Andreoni J. (1990). Impure altruism and donations to public goods: A theory of warm-glow giving? Economic Journal 100: 464-77.
4. Auliciems, A. (1978). Mood dependency on low-intensity atmospheric variability. International Journal of Biometeorology, 22(1), 20–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01553137
5. Baker, H. K., & Ricciardi, V. (2014). Investor behavior: The psychology of financial planning and investing. John Wiley & Sons.
6. Barnston, A. G. (1988). The effect of weather on mood, productivity, and frequency of emotional crisis in a temperate continental climate. International Journal of Biometeorology, 32(2), 134–143. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01044907
7. Bell, P. A. (1981). Physiological Comfort, Performance And Social Effects Oh Heat Stress, Journal of Social Issues, 37, pp. 71-94.
8. Bell, P. A. and Baron, R. A. (1976). Aggression And Heat: The Mediating Role of Negative Affect, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 6, pp. 18-30.

9. Cao, M. and Wei, J. (2005). Stock Market Returns: A Note on Temperature Anomaly, Journal of Banking and Finance, 29, pp. 1559-73.
10. Chang, S. C., Chen, S. S., Chou, R. K. & Lin, Y. H. (2008). Weather and Intraday Patterns in Stock Returns and Trading Activity, Journal of Banking and Finance, 32, pp. 1754-1766.
11. Chang, T., Nieh, C.C., Yang, M. J. & Yang, T. (2006). Are Stock Market Returns Related to the Weather Effects? Empirical Evidence From Taiwan, Physica A, 364, pp. 343-354.
12. Cialdini RB, Darby BL, Vincent JE. (1973). Transgression and altruism: A case for hedonism. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 9: 502-16
13. Connolly T, Ordóñez LD, Coughlan R. (1997). Regret and responsibility in the evaluation of decision outcomes. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 70: 73-85
14. Denissen, J. J. A., Butalid, L., Penke, L., & van Aken, M. A. G. (2008). The effects of weather on daily mood: A multilevel approach. Emotion, 8(5), 662–667. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0013497
15. Doswell III, C. A. (2004). Weather forecasting by humans—Heuristics and decision making. Weather and Forecasting, 19(6), 1115-1126.
16. Dowling, M. and Lucey, B. M. (2005). Weather, Biorhythms, Beliefs and Stock Returns: Some Preliminary Irish Evidence, International Review of Financial Analysis, 14, pp. 337-355.
17. Driscoll, D., & Stillman, D. (2002). Weather and emotional state: a search for associations between weather and calls to telephone counseling services. International Journal of Biometeorology, 47(1), 21–34. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-002-0136-0
18. Dunn EW, Norton M. (2013). Happy money: The science of smarter spending. New York, NY: Simon and Schuster
19. Ekman P. (2007). Emotions revealed: Recognizing faces and feelings to improve communication and emotional life. New York, NY: Holt
20. Erber R, Wang Erber M. (2000). The self-regulation of moods: Second thoughts on the importance of happiness in everyday life. Psychological Inquiry 11: 142-48
21. Findikyan, N. and Sells, S. (1964). Some relations of meteorological variables to day-to-day fluctuations in subjective feeling, in: Dimensions of stimulus situations which account for behavior variance, Contract Nour-3436(00), Group Psychology Bronch, Office of Naval Research, Research Note No. 1.
22. Fletcher, R. J. (1988). ?Föhn illness? and human biometeorology in the Chinook area of Canada. International Journal of Biometeorology, 32(3), 168–175. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01045275
23. Frijda NH. (1994). Varieties of affect: Emotions and episodes, moods, and sentiments. In The nature of emotions: Fundamental questions, ed. P Ekman, RJ Davidson, pp. 59-67. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press
24. Gilbert DT. (2006). Stumbling on happiness. New York, NY: Knopf
25. Gilovich TD, Griffin DW. (2010). Judgment and decision making. In Handbook of social psychology, ed. DT Gilbert, ST Fiske, G Lindzey, pp. 542-88. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
26. Goetzmann, W. N., & Zhu, N. (2005). Rain or shine: where is the weather effect?. European Financial Management, 11(5), 559-578.
27. Harley, T. (2018). The psychology of weather. Routledge.
28. Hirshleifer, D. and Shumway, T. (2003). Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and The Weather, Journal of Finance, 58, pp. 1009-32.
29. Howarth, E. and Hoffman, M. S. (1984). A Multidimensional Approach to the Relationship Between Mood and Weather, British Journal of Psychology, 75, pp. 15-23.
30. Howarth, E., & Hoffman, M. S. (1984). A multidimensional approach to the relationship between mood and weather. British Journal of Psychology, 75(1), 15–23. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8295.1984.tb02785.x
31. Hribersek, E., van de Voorde, H., Poppe, H., & Casselman, J. (1987). Influence of the Day of the Week and the Weather on People Using a Telephone Support System. British Journal of Psychiatry, 150(2), 189–192. https://doi.org/10.1192/bjp.150.2.189
32. Ifcher J, Zarghamee H. (2011). Happiness and time preference: The effect of positive affect in a random-assignment experiment. The American Economic Review 101: 3109-29
33. Jang, K. L., Lam, R. W., Livesley, W. J., & Vernon, P. A. (1997). The relationship between seasonal mood change and personality: more apparent than real? Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 95(6), 539–543. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0447.1997.tb10143.x
34. Kamstra, M. J., Kramer, L. A. & Levi, M. D. (2003). Winter Blues: A Sad Stock Market Cycle, American Economic Review, 93, pp. 324-343.
35. Kathiravan, C., Selvam, M., Venkateswar, S., & Balakrishnan, S. (2021). Investor behavior and weather factors: evidences from Asian region. Annals of Operations Research, 299(1), 349-373.
36. Keef, P. and Roush, M. L. (2007). Daily Weather Effects on the Returns of Australian Stock Indices, Applied Financial Economics, 17, pp. 173-184.
37. Keller, M. C., Fredrickson, B. L., Ybarra, O., Cote, S., Johnson, K., Mikels, J., Conway, A., & Wager, T. (2005). A Warm Heart and a Clear Head: The Contingent Effects of Weather on Mood and Cognition. Psychological Science, 16(9), 724–731. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2005.01602.x
38. Keller, M. C., Fredrickson, B. L., Ybarra, O., Côté, S., Johnson, K., Mikels, J., ... & Wager, T. (2005). A warm heart and a clear head: The contingent effects of weather on mood and cognition. Psychological science, 16(9), 724-731.
39. Keltner D, Lerner JS. (2010). Emotion. In The handbook of social psychology, ed. DT Gilbert, ST Fiske, G Lindzey, pp. 317-52. New York, NY: Wiley
40. Keltner D, Oatley K, Jenkins JM. (2014). Understanding emotions. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. 1 online resource (1 v.) pp.
41. Lerner, J. S. (2014). Emotion and Decision Making. Harvard University Thesis.
42. Li, J., Wang, X., & Hovy, E. (2014, November). What a nasty day: Exploring mood-weather relationship from twitter. In proceedings of the 23rd ACM International Conference on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (pp. 1309-1318).
43. Liu, V., Banea, C., & Mihalcea, R. (2017, October). Grounded emotions. In 2017 Seventh International Conference on Affective Computing and Intelligent Interaction (ACII) (pp. 477-483). IEEE.
44. Loewenstein G, Weber EU, Hsee CK, Welch N. (2001). Risk as feelings. Psychological Bulletin 127: 267-86
45. Loewenstein G. (1996). Out of control: Visceral influences on behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65: 272-92
46. Loewenstein, G. (2000). Emotions in Economic Theory and Economic Behavior, American Economic Review, 65, pp. 426-432.
47. Loewenstein, G., Weber, E. U., Hsee, C. K., & Welch, N. (2001). Risk As Feelings, Psychological Bulletin, 127, pp. 267-286.
48. Mellers BA, Schwartz A, Ritov I. (1999). Emotion-based choice. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 128: 332-45
49. Michael, R. and Zumpe. (1983). Sexual violence in the United States and the role of season. American Journal of Psychiatry, 140(7), 883–886. https://doi.org/10.1176/ajp.140.7.883
50. Murray, G., Hay, D., & Armstrong, S. (1995). Personality factors in Seasonal Affective Disorder: Is seasonality an aspect of neuroticism? Personality and Individual Differences, 19(5), 613–617. https://doi.org/10.1016/0191-8869(95)00105-f
51. Otto, F. E. (2017). Attribution of weather and climate events. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 42, 627-646.
52. Palinkas, L. A. (2001). Mental and Cognitive Performance in the Cold. International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 60(3), 430–439. https://doi.org/10.1080/22423982.2001.12113048
53. Pardo, A., & Valor, E. (2003). Spanish Stock Returns: Where is the Weather Effect? European Financial Management, 9(1), 117–126. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-036x.00210
54. Persinger, M. A. (1975). Lag responses in mood reports to changes in the weather matrix. International Journal of Biometeorology, 19(2), 108–114. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01463866
55. Rick S, Loewenstein G. (2008). Intangibility in intertemporal choice. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 363: 3813-24
56. Sami, J. (2021). Weather, investor psychology and stock returns: evidence from Fiji's stock market. Review of Behavioral Finance.
57. Saunders, E. M. (1993). Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather, American Economic Review, 83, pp. 1337-45.
58. Schoemaker, P. J. H., & Russo, J. E. (2018). Decision-Making. The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137294678.0160
59. Schwarz, N. (1990). Feelings as information. Informational and motivational functions of affective states, in R. Sorentino, and E. T. Higgins, eds.: Handbook of Motivation and Cognition (Guilford Press, New York).
60. Simon, H. A. (1967). Motivational and emotional controls of cognition. Psychological Review, 74(1), 29–39.
61. Simon, H. A. (1983). Search and Reasoning in problem solving. Artificial Intelligence, 21(1–2), 7–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0004-3702(83)80003-4
62. Thomson, W. (1979). A change of air, Charles Scribner, New York.
63. Tracy JL, Robins RW. (2007). The psychological structure of pride: A tale of two facets. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 92: 506-25
64. Tromp, S. (1979). Studies on the origin and biological effects of the Chinook in western Canada, in: Biometeorological survey, vol. 1, part A: Human Biometeorology, edited by: Tromp, S. and Bouma, J., Heyden, London, 191–194.
65. Tufan, E. and Hamarat, B. (2004). Do Cloudy Days Affect Stock Exchange Returns: Evidence From The Istanbul Stock Exchange, Journal of Naval Science and Engineering, 2, pp. 117-126.
66. Watson, D. (200). Situational and environmental influence on mood. In: Mood and Temperament. (Guilford Press, New York).
67. Watson, D. (2000). Mood and Temperament (1st ed.). The Guilford Press.
68. Williams LA, DeSteno D. (2008). Pride and perseverance: The motivational role of pride. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 94: 1007-17
69. Wyndham, H. C. (1969). Adaptation to Heat And Cold, Environmental Research, 2, pp. 442-469.
70. Yoon, M. S. and Kang, S. H. (2009). Weather Effects On Returns: Evidence From The Korean Stock Market., Physica A, 388, pp. 682-690.
71. Zhang, X., Wang, S., Meng, Q., & Wu, W. (2019). The warning of haze: weather and corporate investment. Accounting & Finance, 59(5), 3029-3052.