Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Çevresel Etkileri: Kirlilik Sığınağı-Kirlilik Halesi İkilemi

Abstract

Sermaye hareketlerinin serbestleşmeye başladığı 1980’li yıllardan itibaren doğrudan yabancı yatırımların (DYY) ekonomik etkilerinin yanında sosyoekonomik etkilerinin de tartışılmaya başlandığı görülmektedir. NAFTA sonrası Kuzey-Güney eşitsizliği tartışmaları çevresel kalite bağlamında genişlemektedir. Kuzeyden güneye doğru DYY’lerin kuzeyde istihdam güneyde ise çevre kirliliği problemlerine yol açacağı yönündeki eleştiriler ilgili literatürü kirlilik sığınakları hipotezi ile zenginleştirmiştir. Sermaye serbestisi yanlısı görüştekiler ise gelişmiş ülkelerdeki verimlilik odaklı ve yeşil teknolojik üretiminin yayılımının çevresel kaliteyi arttıracağı iddiası ile kirlilik halesi hipotezini savunmaktadır. DYY’lerin çevresel etkilerine odaklanan literatürde her iki görüşe dair kanıtların tartışmalı ve bulguların örnek ekonomi ve örneklem dönemine bağlı olarak değiştiği görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada kirlilik sığınağı hipotezinin sınanması amacıyla DYY’lerin karbon salınımı üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri modellenerek 99 ülke için 1992 ile 2021 yıllarını kapsayan örneklemde panel ARDL model tahminleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bulgular gelişmemiş ülkelerde kirlilik sığınağı hipotezinin geçerliliği yönündeyken orta düzeyde gelişmiş ülkelerde yatırım çıkışlarının çevresel kaliteyi artırdığı yönündedir. Gelişmiş ülkeler için ise kirlilik hale hipotezini destekleyen bulgular elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

• Kirlilik Sığınakları Hipotezi
• Kirlilik Halesi Hipotezi
• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar (DYY)
• Çevre Kirliliği
• Asimetrik Panel ARDL

Environmental Impacts of Foreign Direct Investments: Pollution Haven or Pollution Halo?

Abstract

Since the liberalization of capital movements in the 1980s, discussions have emerged regarding the economic and socioeconomic impacts of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI). Post-NAFTA debates on North-South inequality have expanded in the context of environmental quality. Critiques suggest that FDI from the north to the south may lead to unemployment in the north while causing environmental pollution in the south, enriching the literature with the pollution haven hypothesis. Conversely, proponents argue that spreading efficiency-oriented and green technologies in developed countries will enhance environmental quality, supporting the pollution halo hypothesis. The literature focusing on the environmental impacts of FDI shows that evidence for both perspectives is contentious, with findings varying based on the economy and sample period examined. This study tests the pollution haven hypothesis by modeling the asymmetric effects of FDI on carbon emissions, using panel ARDL estimations for 99 countries from 1992 to 2021. The results support the pollution haven hypothesis in underdeveloped countries, while investment outflows in moderately developed countries improve environmental quality. For developed countries, findings support the pollution halo hypothesis.

Keywords

• Pollution Haven Hypothesis
• Pollution Halo Hypothesis
• Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)
• Environmental Pollution
• Asymmetric Panel ARDL

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