Enerji Vergilerindeki Değişimin Belirlediği Rejimlerde Sağlık Harcamaları Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşik Regresyon Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, sağlık harcamalarındaki değişim ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin, enerji vergisi gelirlerinin GSYH içindeki payındaki değişime bağlı olarak doğrusal olmayan bir yapıya sahip olup olmadığını ampirik olarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu kapsamda, 27 Avrupa ülkesine ait 2014–2021 dönemi yıllık verileri, rejimler arasındaki yapısal farklılıkları ortaya koyabilen panel eşik regresyon yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, enerji vergisi gelirlerinin GSYH payındaki değişimin modelde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir eşik değişkeni işlevi gördüğünü ve yapının çoklu eşik özellikleri sergilediğini göstermektedir. Buna göre, sağlık harcamalarındaki değişimin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri, belirlenen eşik değerlerine bağlı olarak rejimler arasında farklılaşmaktadır. Enerji vergisi gelirlerinin GSYH payında yüksek düzeyde azalışın yaşandığı birinci rejimde, sağlık harcamalarındaki değişimin büyüme üzerindeki etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Buna karşın, enerji vergi gelirlerinin GSYH payındaki azalışın ılımlı düzeyde gerçekleştiği ikinci rejimde, sağlık harcamalarındaki değişimin büyüme üzerindeki negatif etkisi en yüksek seviyeye ulaşmaktadır. Enerji vergi gelirlerinin GSYH payında küçük azalışları, değişim olmamasını veya artışları kapsayan üçüncü rejimde ise negatif etkinin varlığı devam etmekle birlikte, etkinin büyüklüğünün zayıfladığı gözlenmektedir. Sonuç olarak çalışma, enerji vergisi gelir dinamikleri ile sağlık harcamaları arasındaki etkileşimin makroekonomik büyüme üzerindeki yansımalarının doğrusal olmadığını ve eşik değerlerine bağlı rejimsel farklılıklar içerdiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Sağlık Harcamaları
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Enerji Vergileri

Supporting Institution

Yoktur.

Ethical Statement

Çalışmada katılımcılardan anket, görüşme, gözlem ya da deney yoluyla birincil veri veya kişisel veri içeren herhangi bir içerik kullanılmamıştır. Bu nedenle etik kurul onayı gerekmemektedir

The Relationship Between Health Expenditures and Growth Under Regimes Determined by Changes in Energy Taxes: A Panel Threshold Regression Approach

Abstract

This study aims to empirically examine whether the relationship between changes in health expenditures and economic growth exhibits a non-linear structure depending on changes in the ratio of energy tax revenues to GDP. In this context, annual data for the 2014–2021 period across 27 European countries are analyzed using a panel threshold regression method capable of uncovering structural differences across regimes. The empirical findings indicate that the rate of change in the energy tax revenue-to-GDP ratio serves as a statistically significant threshold variable in the model, exhibiting multi-threshold characteristics. Accordingly, the macroeconomic impacts of shifts in health expenditures on economic growth vary across regimes depending on the identified threshold values. In the first regime, characterized by a substantial decline in the energy tax revenue-to-GDP ratio, the effect of changes in health expenditures on growth is not statistically significant. Conversely, in the second regime, where the reduction in the energy tax revenue-to-GDP ratio is moderate, the negative impact of shifts in health expenditures on growth reaches its peak intensity. In the third regime, which encompasses minor declines, zero change, or positive changes in the energy tax revenue-to-GDP ratio, the negative effect persists, albeit with a diminished coefficient magnitude. In conclusion, the study demonstrates that the macroeconomic reflections of the interaction between energy tax revenue dynamics and health expenditures are non-linear and display regime-dependent asymmetric patterns.

Keywords

• Health Expenditures
• Economic Growth
• Energy Taxes

Supporting Institution

None.

Ethical Statement

The study did not involve the collection of primary data or any content containing personal data through surveys, interviews, observations, or experiments with participants. Therefore, ethical approval was not required.

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