POVERTY TRENDS IN CRISIS PERIODS: STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS ON TURKEY

Abstract

This study aims to examine the causal relationships between income poverty and material deprivation in Türkiye between 2006 and 2024, in the context of structural breaks and economic crises. Using data from the TurkStat Income and Living Conditions Survey, the Lee-Strazicich structural break test, Granger causality analysis, and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model were applied. The analysis period was structured to include the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the 2018 Foreign Exchange Crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis results reveal a unidirectional causal relationship running from income poverty to material deprivation. Over the 18-year period, the income poverty rate decreased by 11.6%, while the material deprivation rate fell by 55.1%; however, material deprivation increased dramatically by 44.7% in 2024. Structural break tests indicate that the 2008 and 2018 crises led to permanent changes in poverty dynamics, while the COVID-19 pandemic had temporary effects. VAR analysis reveals that income poverty shocks affect material deprivation for three to four quarters. Anti-poverty policies in Türkiye should include structural measures to reduce material deprivation, along with income support, particularly during crisis periods. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening social safety nets and developing resilience mechanisms.

Keywords

• Poverty
• Material Deprivation
• Structural Break
• Causality Analysis
• Economic Crisis
• Türkiye

KRİZ DÖNEMLERİNDE YOKSULLUK EĞİLİMLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE YAPISAL KIRILMA ve NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de 2006-2024 döneminde gelir yoksulluğu ile maddi yoksunluk arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini yapısal kırılmalar ve ekonomik krizler bağlamında incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. TÜİK Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması verilerinden yararlanılarak, Lee-Strazicich yapısal kırılma testi, Granger nedensellik analizi ve Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) modeli uygulanmıştır. Analiz dönemi, 2008 Küresel Finans Krizi, 2018 Döviz Krizi ve 2020 COVID-19 pandemisini kapsayacak şekilde yapılandırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, gelir yoksulluğundan maddi yoksunluğa doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. 18 yıllık dönemde gelir yoksulluğu oranı %11,6 azalırken, maddi yoksunluk oranı %55,1 düşmüş; ancak 2024 yılında maddi yoksunluk %44,7 oranında dramatik bir artış göstermiştir. Yapısal kırılma testleri, 2008 ve 2018 krizlerinin yoksulluk dinamiklerinde kalıcı değişimlere yol açtığını, COVID-19 pandemisinin ise geçici etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. VAR analizi, gelir yoksulluğu şoklarının maddi yoksunluğu 3-4 çeyrek boyunca etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Türkiye'de yoksullukla mücadele politikalarının, özellikle kriz dönemlerinde gelir desteği ile birlikte maddi yoksunluğun azaltılmasına yönelik yapısal tedbirleri içermesi gerekmektedir. Bulgular, sosyal güvenlik ağlarının güçlendirilmesi ve dayanıklılık mekanizmalarının geliştirilmesinin önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Yoksulluk
• Maddi Yoksunluk
• Yapısal Kırılma
• Nedensellik Analizi
• Ekonomik Krizler
• Türkiye

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