THE IMPORTANCE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES IN FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 53 - 62, 11.05.2018

Çağla Melisa Kaya

https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.417652

Cited By: 4

Öz

Flood management planning in general primarily focuses
on physical damage and structural measures accordingly. While such an approach
is necessary, there is a great need for more knowledge to take sufficient
precautions. Flood risk maps ensures key information in terms of flood
management plans. Therefore, the boundary of inundation area, assets in the
region and risk promoting features of population in the flood zone should be
evaluated together to estimate flood risk is the closest to truth.

‘‘Nothing
cannot sustain its existence which has not a sustainable structure in the
nature’’ that the fact in mind, in order to maintain the presence of assets and
activities in a floodplain, it is necessary to implement planning decisions
that are compatible with the structure of population living in the region.

In
this study, we discuss the importance of detailed interpretation of the
socio-economic and demographic profiles (age, education level, gender, income
etc.) of the population living in the basin in terms of evaluating flood risk.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Flood, Disaster, Risk and Risk Perception, Social Vulnerability

TAŞKIN RİSKİNİN BELİRLENMESİNDE SOSYO-DEMOGROFİK VE SOSYO-EKONOMİK ÖZELLİKLERİN ÖNEMİ

Öz

Taşkın yönetimi planlamaları genel olarak öncelikli
fiziksel zarar görebilirliğin ve buna bağlı olarak yapısal önlemlerin üzerinde
yoğunlaşmaktadır. Böyle bir yaklaşım gerekli olmakla beraber yetkin önlem ve
planlama kararlarının alınması/uygulanması için birçok bilgiye daha ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır.
Özellikle taşkın yönetim planları açısından anahtar bilgi niteliği taşıyan
taşkın risk haritalarının üretilmesinde, sel havzasının su altında kalması
muhtemel alan sınırları içerisinde kalan varlıkların fiziksel zarar
görebilirlikleri ile nüfusun sosyo-demografik ve sosyo-ekonomik durumunun risk
arttırıcı yönünün değerlendirilmesi, taşkın riskinin gerçeğe en yakın
doğrulukta tahmin edilmesini sağlayacaktır.

“Doğada sürdürebilir yapıda olmayan
hiçbir şey varlığını devam ettiremez” gerçeğinden hareketle bir havza
sisteminde var olan varlıkların ve faaliyetlerin mevcudiyetini koruyabilmesi ve
devamlılığının en güvenli koşullarda sağlanabilmesi için bölgede yaşayan nüfusun
yapısıyla uyumlu planlama kararlarının uygulanması gerekmektedir.

Bu gereklilikten
hareketle, bu çalışma da taşkın riskinin tespit edilmesinde sel havzasında
yaşayan nüfusun sosyal şartlarının bilinmesinin ve taşkın zararlarının meydana
gelmesinde nüfusun özelliklerinin muhtemel etkisinin dikkate alınmasının önemi
tartışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Taşkın, Afet, Risk ve Risk Algısı, Sosyal Kırılganlık

Kaynakça

• Abrahams, M.J., J. Price, F.A. Whitlock and G. Williams (1976). The Brisbane floods, January 1974: Their impact on health. Medical Journal of Australia. 2, 936–939.
• Adams, J. (1995). Risk. University College London Press, Lonra, 228.
• Aksoy, Y. (2010). Tarihteki Önemli Doğal Afetler. Karma Kitaplar, İstanbul, 311.
• Ariyabandu, M. M. ve Wickramasinghe. M. (2004). Gender Dimensions in Disaster Management: A Guide for South Asia, p. 176. Colombo: ITDG South Asia.
• Arnell, N. W., ve Gosling, S. N. (2016). The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change, 134(3), 387-401.
• Baxter, P.J., I. Möller, T. Spencer, R.J. Spence and S. Tapsell (2001). ‘Flooding and Climate Change’. Health Effects of Climate Change. Section 4.6. UK Department of Health Document 22452.2P.1K.APR 01 (WOR), Crown Copyright, London.
• Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I. ve Wisner, B. (1994). At Risk: Natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters. New York, Routledge.
• Bennet, G. (1970). ‘Bristol Floods 1968—Controlled Survey of Effects on Health of Local Community Disaster’. British Medical Journal. 3, 454–458.
• Bradford, R. A., O'Sullivan, J. J., Van der Craats, I. M., Krywkow, J., Rotko, P., Aaltonen, J., ... ve Schelfaut, K. (2012). Risk perception–issues for flood management in Europe. Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 12(7), 2299-2309.
• Browne, M. J., ve Hoyt, R. E. (2000). The demand for flood insurance: empirical evidence. Journal of risk and uncertainty, 20(3), 291-306.
• Burningham, K. , Fielding, J. and Thrush, D. (2008). ‘It'll never happen to me’: understanding public awareness of local flood risk. Disasters, 32: 216-238.
• Coates, L. (1999). ‘Flood Fatalities in Australia, 1788–1996’. Australian Geographer. 30(3), 391–408.
• Crichton, D. (1999). The Risk Triangle, A New Way to Think about Risk from an Insurance Perspective, The Hazards Forum Newsletter, Londra, No:36, 12-13.
• Downing, T.E., Butterfield, R., Cohen, S., Huq, S., Moss, R., Rahman, A., Sokona, Y., ve Stephen, L. (2001). Climate Change Vulnerability: Linking Impacts and Adaptation. Report to the Governing Council of the United Nations Programme. United Nations Environmental Programme, Environmental Change Enstitüsü, Nairobi, Kenya.
• Duclos, P., O. Vidonne, P. Beuf, P. Perray and A. Stoebner (1991). Flash Flood Disaster—Nîmes, France,1988. European Journal of Epidemiology. 7(4), 365–371.
• Edwards, M. L. (1993). Social location and self-protective behavior: Implications for earthquake preparedness. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. 11, 305–322.
• EM-DAT: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Université Catholique de Louvain, Bruksel. http://www.em-dat.net. (Son erisim: 27/04/2018)
• Flood Directive (2007). Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks, European Parliament, Council, 2007
• French, J., R. Ing, S. Von Allmen and R. Wood (1983). Mortality from Flash Floods: A Review of National Weather Service Reports, 1969–81. Public Health Reports. 98(6), 584–588.
• French J. G. ve Holt K. W., Floods. In MD Gregg (ed), The public health consequences of disasters, (1989). Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta GA.
• Enarson, E., ve Chakrabarti, P. D. (Eds.). (2009). Women, gender and disaster: global issues and initiatives. SAGE Publications India.
• El Nino lenkt Fısche' (1997). Wıssen-Good news. Ume Walz, Facts Nachrichtenmagazin,, İspanya.
• Etkin, D. (1999). Risk transference and related trends: driving forces towards more mega-disasters. Environmental Hazards 1, 69-75.
• Eisenman, D. P., Cordasco, K. M., Asch, S., Golden, J. F., & Glik, D. (2007). Disaster planning and risk communication with vulnerable communities: lessons from Hurricane Katrina. American journal of public health, 97(Supplement_1), S109-S115.
• Ferrier, N. and Haque, C.E. (2003). Hazards risk assessment methodology for Emergency managers: A standardized framework for application. Natural Hazards 28, 271-290.
• Forster, S., Kuhlmann, B., Lindenschmidt, K.-E., and Bronstert, A. (2008). Assessing flood risk for a rural detention area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 311–322.
• Green, B. L., Korol, M., Grace, M. C., Vary, M. G., Leonard, A. C., Gleser, G. C., & Smitson-Cohen, S. (1991). Children and disaster: Age, gender, and parental effects on PTSD symptoms. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 30(6), 945-951.
• Han, D., T. Kwong, ve S. Li (2007). Uncertainties in real‐time flood forecasting with neural networks, Hydrol. Processes, 21(2), 223–228.
• Hansen, W. L. (1970). Income distribution effects of higher education, American Economic Rev., 60, 335–340, 1970.
• Heller, K., Alexander, D. B., Gatz, M., Knight, B. G., ve Rose, T. (2005). Social and personal factors as predictors of earthquake preparation: The role of support provision, network discussion, negative affect, age, and education. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 35, 399–422.
• Huerta, F., ve Horton, R. (1978). Coping behavior of elderly flood victims. Gerontologist, 18, 541-546.
• Jackson, E. L. (1981). Response to earthquake hazard: The west coast of North America. Environment and Behavior, 13, 387–416.
• Jones, R. ve Boer, R. (2013). Assessing current climate risks Adaptation Policy Framework: A Guide for Policies to Facilitate Adaptation to Climate Change, UNDP http://www.undp.org/cc/apf-outline.html
• Jonkman, S. N., ve Kelman, I. (2005). An analysis of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. Disasters, 29(1), 75-97.
• Kaya C.M. (2017). Akım Gözlem İstasyonu Bulunmayan Taşkın Havzalarındaki Değişimlerin Taşkın Riskine Etkisinin Belirlenmesi: Rize, Güneysu Örneği, Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi, Trabzon.
• Kaya, C. M., Tayfur, G., ve Gungor, O. (2017). Predicting flood plain inundation for natural channels having no upstream gauged stations. Journal of Water and Climate Change, jwc2017307.
• Koks, E. E., Jongman, B., Husby, T. G. ve Botzen, W. J. (2015). Combining Hazard, Exposure and Social Vulnerability to Provide Lessons for Flood Risk Management, Environmental Science and Policy, 4, 7, 42-52.
• Kundzewicz, Z. W., Kanae, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Handmer, J., Nicholls, N., Peduzzi, P., ... ve Muir-Wood, R. (2014). Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(1), 1-28.
• Loster, T. (1999). Flood trends and global change. In Proceedings IIASA Conf on Global Change and Catastrophe Management: Flood Risks in Europe.
• Masek, J.G., Lindsay, F.E. ve Goward, S.N. (2000). Dynamics of urban growth in the Washington DC metropolitan area, 1973-1996, from Landsat observations. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 21, 3473–3486.
• Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., ve Thieken, A. (2010). Review article" Assessment of economic flood damage". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10(8), 1697.
• Mooney, L.E. (1983). Applications and Implications of Fatality Statistics to the Flash Flood Problems. In Proceedings of the 5th Conference on Hydrometeorology (Tulsa, US, 17–19 October 1983). 127–129.
• Mileti, D. S., ve Fitzpatrick, C. (1992). The causal sequence of risk communication in the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment. Risk Analysis, 12(3), 393-400.
• Mulilis, J.-P., ve Duval, T. S. (1997). The PrE model of coping and tornado preparedness: Moderating effects of responsibility. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 27, 1750–1766.
• Mulilis, J.-P., Duval, T. S., ve Bovalino, K. (2000). Tornado preparedness of students, nonstudent renters, and nonstudent owners: Issues of PrE theory. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 30, 1310–1329.
• Miceli, R., Sotgiu, I., ve Settanni, M. (2008). Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy. Journal of environmental psychology, 28(2), 164-173.
• Norris, F. H., ve Murrell, S. A. (1988). Prior experience as a moderator of disaster impact on anxiety symptoms in older adults. American Journal of Community. Psychology, 16,665483.
• Nsorfon, I. F. (2015). Exploring Social Vulnerability to Natural Disasters in Urban Informal Settlements-Perspectives from Flooding in the Slums of Lagos, Nigeria (Doctoral dissertation, Universität zu Köln).
• Ohl, C.A. ve S. Tapsell (2000). Flooding and Human Health: The Dangers Posed are not Always bvious. British Medical Journal. 321, 1167–1168.
• Random House (1966). The Random House Dictionary of the English Language, Stein, J. (ed.), Random House, New York.
• Ranger, N., Hallegatte, S., Bhattacharya, S., Bachu, M., Priya, S., Dhore, K., ... ve Herweijer, C. (2011). An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai. Climatic change, 104(1), 139-167.
• Reimer, N. (2002). Als der Regen kam, ein Fotolesebuch zur flut in Sachsen. (When the rain came—a book about the floods in Sachsen). Michel Sandstein Verlag, Dresden.
• Renn, O. (1991). Risikowahrnehmung und Risikobewertung: Soziale Perzeption und gesellschaftliche Konflikte. In: S. Chakraberty and G. Yadigarolu eds. (1991). Ganzheitliche Risikobetrachtung. Köln: TÜV Rheinland, pp. 06-10 - 6-62.
• Renn, O. (1998). Three decades of risk research: accomplishments and new challenges. Journal of Risk Research, 1(1), pp. 49-71.
• Russell, L. A., Goltz, J. D., ve Bourque, L. B. (1995). Preparedness and hazard mitigation actions before and after two earthquakes. Environment and Behavior, 27, 744–770.
• Sattler, D. N., Kaiser, C. F., ve Hittner, J. B. (2000). Disaster preparedness: Relationships among prior experience, personal characteristics, and distress. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 30(7), 1396-1420.
• Sjoberg, L.: Worry and risk perception, Risk Anal., 18, 85–93, 1998.
• Smemoe, C. M., Nelson, E. J., Zundel, A. K., ve Miller, A. W. (2007). Demonstrating floodplain uncertainty using flood probability maps. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 43(2), 359-371.
• Smith, K. (1996). Environmental Hazards. Routeledge, London, 389.
• Stewart, R. M. (2007). Community perspectives of flood risk and social vulnerability reduction: the case of the Red River Basin.
• Trenberth, K. E. (2011). Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research, 47(1/2), 123-138.
• White, G. (1945). Human adjustments to floods. Research Paper 29. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
• Whyte, A. V. (1982). Probabilities, consequences, and values in the perception of risk. Risk Assessment and Perception Symposium (Toronto: The Royal Society of Canada).
• Wilby, R. L., ve Keenan, R. (2012). Adapting to flood risk under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography, 36(3), 348-378.
• Wilson, C. (1990). Education and risk, in: Hazards and the communication of risk, edited by: Handmer, J. and Penning-Rowsell, E., Gower, England.
• Young, E. (1998). Dealing with Hazards and disasters: risk perception and community participation in management. The Australian Journal of Emergency Management 13(2), 14-16.
• Zaleskiewicz, T., Piskorz, Z., ve Borkowska, A. (2002). Fear or money? Decisions on insuring oneself against flood. Risk Decision and Policy, 7, 221–233.
• Zhang, H., Ma, W. C., ve Wang, X. R. (2008). Rapid urbanization and implications for flood risk management in hinterland of the Pearl River Delta, China: The Foshan study. Sensors, 8(4), 2223-2239.