KREDİ HACMİ OTOMOBİL TALEBİ ETKİLEŞİMİ: NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİNDE KÜMÜLATİF TOPLAMLAR YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2018, , 47 - 69, 25.10.2018

Oğuzhan Özçelebi , Furkan Şafak

https://doi.org/10.31463/aicusbed.421590

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) ve Hatemi-J (2012) testleri
kullanılarak ticari ve bireysel kredi hacmi ile kayıtlı otomobil sayısı
arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Hatemi-J ve Mustafa (2016)’e
uygun olarak pozitif ve negatif kümülatif toplamlar yardımıyla da kredi hacmi
ve otomobil talebi arasında mevcut olabilecek asimetrik etkiler her iki test
ile değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları ticari ve bireysel kredi
hacmindeki artışların otomobil talebinin yükselmesine neden olduğu yönünde
olup, ilgili kredi büyüklüğündeki düşüşlerin otomobil talebini düşürmeyeceğini
ortaya koymaktadır. Söz konusu bulgular otomobil sektörünün arz dinamiklerini
ve tüketicilerin alışkanlıklarını talebi canlı tutmaya yetecek kadar güçlü
olduğunun altını çizmektedir. Otomobil sektörünün gelişimini tetiklemek
amacıyla kullanılabilecek kredi genişlemesi politikasının hangi sınırdan
itibaren hane halkını aşırı borçlu hale getireceğinin saptanması önem arz
etmektedir. Her iki nedensellik analizi sonuçları ayrıca, otomobil talebindeki
artışların/azalışların ticari ve bireysel kredi hacmini yükselttiği/düşürdüğü
bulgusuna ulaşmıştır. Otomobil talebindeki değişiklerin ticari ve bireysel
krediler üzerinden bankaların aktif-pasif yapısı üzerindeki sonuçlarının
değerlendirilmesi ise bankacılık sektörünün finansal sağlığı ve finansal
istikrar açılarından önemli bir husus olarak saptanmıştır. Yurt içi otomobil
üretimi ve otomobil talep dinamikleri ile uyumlu olmayan bir kredi genişlemesi
cari açık sorunu büyüteceğinden, kredi hacminin büyüme hızının sınırlandırması
bir makro ihtiyati politika önlemi olarak kullanılabilecektir. 

Keywords

Otomobil talebi, kredi hacmi, otomobil arzı, nedensellik analizi, kümülatif toplamlar

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