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Kapılı Tekrarlayan Hücreler Tabanlı Bulanık Zaman Serileri Tahminleme Modeli

Year 2023, Volume: 23 Issue: 3, 677 - 692, 28.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.1175297

Abstract

Zaman serisi tahminleme hava durumu, iş dünyası, satış verileri ve enerji tüketimi tahminleme gibi bir çok alanda uygulama alanına sahiptir. Bu alanlarda tahminleme yaparken kesin sonuçlar elde etmek çok önemlidir ama aynı zamanda zaman serilerinin karmaşık ve de belirsizlik içeren veriler olması nedeniyle çok zordur. Günümüzde, derin öğrenme metotları bu alanda klasik metotlara göre daha iyi sonuçlar vermektedir. Fakat literatürde bulanık zaman serileri tahminleme konusunda çok az çalışma vardır. Bu çalışmada, zaman serilerindeki karmaşıklığın ve belirsizliğin doğurduğu problemleri yok etmek için Yinelemeli sinir Ağları ile bulanık time serilerini bir arada kullanan bir model ortaya konmuştur. Bu çalışmada, Kapılı Tekrarlayan Hücreler kullanarak geçmiş veriler ile bulanık verilerin üyelik değerleri birleştirilerek tahminleme değeri hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca, bu çalışmadaki model ilk seviye bulanık ilişkileri ele alabildiği gibi, çoklu seviye bulanık ilişkileri de kapsamaktadır. Testlerde literatürde var olan çalışmalar ilgili model ile iki açık veri seti ile karşılaştırılmış olup bahsi geçen modelin daha iyi veya benzer sonuçlar verdiği gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca model Covid-19 verileri kullanılarak da test edilmiş ve Uzun-Kısa Süreli Bellek modellerinden daha iyi sonuç vermiştir.

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Gated recurrent unit network-based fuzzy time series forecasting model

Year 2023, Volume: 23 Issue: 3, 677 - 692, 28.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.1175297

Abstract

Time series forecasting has lots of applications in various industries such as weather, business, retail and energy consumption forecasting. Accurate prediction in these applications is very important and also difficult task because of complexity and uncertainty of time series. Nowadays, using deep learning methods is a popular approach in time series forecasting and shows better performance than classical methods. However, in the literature, there are few studies which use deep learning methods in fuzzy time series (FTS) forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel FTS forecasting model which is based upon hybridization of Recurrent Neural Networks with FTS to deal with complexity and also uncertanity of these series. The proposed model utilizes Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to make prediction by using combination of membership values and also past value from original time series data as model input and produce real forecast value. Moreover, the proposed model can handle first order fuzzy relations as well as high order ones. In experiments, we have compared our model results with those of state-of-art methods by using two real world datasets; The Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and Nikkei Stock Average. The results indicate that our model outperforms or performs similar to other methods. The proposed model is also validated by using Covid-19 active case dataset and shows better performance than Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) networks.

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  • Aladag, Cagdas Hakan, Yolcu, U., & Egrioglu, E. (2010a). A high order fuzzy time series forecasting model based on adaptive expectation and artificial neural networks. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 81(4), 875–882. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2010.09.011
  • Aladag, Cagdas Hakan, Yolcu, U., & Egrioglu, E. (2010b). A high order fuzzy time series forecasting model based on adaptive expectation and artificial neural networks. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 81(4), 875–882. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2010.09.011
  • Aladag, Cagdas Hakan, Yolcu, U., Egrioglu, E., & Dalar, A. Z. (2012). A new time invariant fuzzy time series forecasting method based on particle swarm optimization. Applied Soft Computing, 12(10), 3291–3299. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2012.05.002
  • Bahrepour, M., Akbarzadeh-T., M. R., Yaghoobi, M., & Naghibi-S., M. B. (2011). An adaptive ordered fuzzy time series with application to FOREX. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(1), 475–485. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2010.06.087
  • Bas, E., Egrioglu, E., Aladag, C. H., & Yolcu, U. (2015). Fuzzy-time-series network used to forecast linear and nonlinear time series. Applied Intelligence, 43(2), 343–355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-015-0647-0
  • Bas, E., Grosan, C., Egrioglu, E., & Yolcu, U. (2018). High order fuzzy time series method based on pi-sigma neural network. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 72, 350–356. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2018.04.017
  • Becerra-Rico, J., Aceves-Fernández, M. A., Esquivel-Escalante, K., & Pedraza-Ortega, J. C. (2020). Airborne particle pollution predictive model using Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) deep neural networks. Earth Science Informatics, 13(3), 821–834. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-020-00462-9
  • Bose, M., & Mali, K. (2019). Designing fuzzy time series forecasting models: A survey. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 111, 78–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2019.05.002
  • Bulut, E. (2014). Modeling seasonality using the fuzzy integrated logical forecasting (FILF) approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 41(4, Part 2), 1806–1812. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.079
  • Cagcag Yolcu, O., & Lam, H. K. (2017). A combined robust fuzzy time series method for prediction of time series. Neurocomputing, 247, 87–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2017.03.037
  • Cai, Q., Zhang, D., Zheng, W., & Leung, S. C. H. (2015). A new fuzzy time series forecasting model combined with ant colony optimization and auto-regression. Knowledge-Based Systems, 74, 61–68. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2014.11.003
  • Castillo, O., Alanis, A., Garcia, M., & Arias, H. (2007). An intuitionistic fuzzy system for time series analysis in plant monitoring and diagnosis. Applied Soft Computing, 7(4), 1227–1233. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2006.01.010
  • Chang, J.-R., Wei, L.-Y., & Cheng, C.-H. (2011). A hybrid ANFIS model based on AR and volatility for TAIEX forecasting. Applied Soft Computing, 11(1), 1388–1395. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2010.04.010
  • Chen, M.-Y., & Chen, B.-T. (2014). Online fuzzy time series analysis based on entropy discretization and a Fast Fourier Transform. Applied Soft Computing, 14, 156–166. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2013.07.024
  • Chen, S.-M., & Kao, P.-Y. (2013). TAIEX forecasting based on fuzzy time series, particle swarm optimization techniques and support vector machines. Information Sciences, 247, 62–71. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2013.06.005
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There are 66 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Artificial Intelligence
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Serdar Arslan 0000-0003-3115-0741

Early Pub Date June 22, 2023
Publication Date June 28, 2023
Submission Date September 14, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 23 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Arslan, S. (2023). Gated recurrent unit network-based fuzzy time series forecasting model. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 23(3), 677-692. https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.1175297
AMA Arslan S. Gated recurrent unit network-based fuzzy time series forecasting model. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi. June 2023;23(3):677-692. doi:10.35414/akufemubid.1175297
Chicago Arslan, Serdar. “Gated Recurrent Unit Network-Based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model”. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 23, no. 3 (June 2023): 677-92. https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.1175297.
EndNote Arslan S (June 1, 2023) Gated recurrent unit network-based fuzzy time series forecasting model. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 23 3 677–692.
IEEE S. Arslan, “Gated recurrent unit network-based fuzzy time series forecasting model”, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 677–692, 2023, doi: 10.35414/akufemubid.1175297.
ISNAD Arslan, Serdar. “Gated Recurrent Unit Network-Based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model”. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 23/3 (June 2023), 677-692. https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.1175297.
JAMA Arslan S. Gated recurrent unit network-based fuzzy time series forecasting model. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi. 2023;23:677–692.
MLA Arslan, Serdar. “Gated Recurrent Unit Network-Based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model”. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 23, no. 3, 2023, pp. 677-92, doi:10.35414/akufemubid.1175297.
Vancouver Arslan S. Gated recurrent unit network-based fuzzy time series forecasting model. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi. 2023;23(3):677-92.