The nexus between maize importation, local production and local prices: Empirical analysis from Nigeria

Abstract

The study examined the relationship between maize importation, local prices and local production. Secondary data from 1970 to 2016 were employed. Unit root, co-integration and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) assumption tests were checked. Least Square estimation model, Pearson Coefficient and Generalized Least Model (GLM) were employed. The results show that strong linear relationship (-0.466) exist between local maize production and maize importation, though in opposite direction. The results from GLM shows that quantities of maize imported (-0.0324), sorghum production (-0.967) and population growth (-0.779) are statistically significant but negatively influences local maize production. Local price of maize (0.471) on the other hand is positive and significantly influences local maize production. There should be effective government policy to reduce maize importation.

Keywords

• Agricultural development,Import substitution,Generalized Least Square

References

1. Acosta, A. (2012). Measuring Spacial Transmission of White Maize Prices between South Africa and Mozambique: An Asymetric Error Correlation Model Approach. African Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics, 7(1): 1-13, ISSN 19930-3738. Adewale, A.R. (2017). Import substitution industrialisation and economic growth –Evidence from the group of BRICS countries. Future Business Journal, 3(2): 138-158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.06.001 Adewale, A. R (2012). Does Import Substitution Industrialisation Strategy Hurt Growth? New Evidence from Brazil and South Africa. African and Asian Studies, 11 (6): 288-314, DOI: 10.1163/15692108-12341235; ISSN: 1569-2094
2. Akande, T. (2001). An overview of the Nigeria rice economy. Monograph of the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER), Ibadan , Nigeria. Akanni, K. A & Okeowo, T. A. (2011). Analysis of aggregate output supply response of selected food grains in Nigeria, Journal of Stored Products and Postharvest Research 2(14): 266 – 278, ISSI 2141-6567 Alabi, O.F. & Alabi, R.A. (2009).“Effect of economic and liberalization on chicken meat production in Nigeria”, European Journal of Social Sciences. 7,4. Ayeni, A.O. (2011). ‘’Maize production in Nigeria: problems and prospects’’. Journal of food and agriculture, 2, 123-129 Ayinde, O. E., Ilori, T. E., Ayinde, K. & Babatunde, R. O. (2015). “Analysis of the Behaviour of Prices of Major Staple Foods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria”, AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, 7(4): 3 - 17. ISSN 1804-1930. Baer, Werner (1972). "Import Substitution and Industrialization in Latin America: Experiences and Interpretations", Latin American Research Review 7,1 (Spring): 95–122, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2502457 Cameron, A.C & Trivedi, P.K. (2005). Microeconometrics, Methods and Applications, Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York., pp345. Chang, Ha-Joon (2002). Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in HistoricalPerspective. London: Anthem Press. CIA world fact book (2012).http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworldfactobook/geos/ni.html. (Accessed 27th March, 2018). Colistete, R. P. (2010). Revisiting Import-Substituting Industrialisation in Post-War Brazil. Munich Personal ReP Ec Archiv, 5-8, Paper No. 24665
3. Dev, A. E. (2003). Import Substitution Industrialization: Looking Inward for theSource of Economic Growth, Puzzle of Latin America 3: 51-59
4. Fakorede, M.A. (2001). Revolutionizing Nigerian Agriculture With The Golden Seed Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (1974). Report of the World Food Conference, Rome. Development Bibliography 8, Brighton: Institute of Development. FAO global report on food crises, (2017).www.fao.org. Garnett, T. & Godfray, C. (2012). Sustainable intensification in agriculture. Navigating a course through competing food system priorities. Food Climate Research Network and the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, University of Oxford, UK. Goldar, B. (1986). Import substitution, industrial concentration and productivity growth in indian manufacturing. Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, 48 (2): 143–164.
5. Guimarães, A.Q.(2004). State Capacity and Economic Development: The advances and limits of import substitution industrialisation in Brazil.
6. Hunt, M. (2014). The World Transformed. New York: Oxford University Press. pp. 227– 228. ISBN 978-0-19-937102-0.
7. International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA, 2017).“Sustainable food production in sub-Saharan African”.IITA’s contribution. IITA, Ibadan. Irwin, A. D. 2002. Did Import Substitution Promote Growth in the Late Nineteen Century? National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, NBER Working Paper 8751.
8. Ismaila, U, Gana, A.S, Twanya, N.M, & Dogara, D. (2010). Cereal production in Nigeria problems, constraints and opportunities for betterment. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 5(12): 1341-1350, ISSN 1991-637, DOI: 10.5897/AJAR09.407 Kuan, C.-M. (2004). Statistics: Concepts and Methods, 2nd edition Taipei: Hua-Tai, 495 pages. Madibela O. R. & Lekgari, L. A. (2002). Enhancing the commercial value of sorghum in Botswana. Botswana Notes and Records, 34, 107 – 112, nhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/40980326 Mendes, A. P. F., Bertella, M. A. & Teixeira, R.F.A. (2014). Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa and import substitution policy. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 34(1): 120-138,

9. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Quarterly report, (2017). National bureau of statistics foreign trade report. National Population Commission Nigeria (NPC), (2010). Nigerian Demographic Survey, Federal Republic of Nigeria, Abuja.
10. Nienke, M., Beintdma, & Gert-Jan Stads. (2011). African agricultural R&D in the new millennium, International Food Policy Research Institute, Food Policy Report.
11. Nkwocha, A. 2012. Import Substitution: The new paradigm shift, Vanguard
12. Olaniyi, O.A. & Adewale, J.G. (2012). "Information on Maize Production among Rural Youth: A Solution for Sustainable Food Security In Nigeria" (2012). Library Philosophy and Practice (e-journal). 724. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/libphilprac/724
13. Onuk E. G ., Ogara I. M , Yahaya H & Nannim N (2010). Economic analysis of maize production in Mangu local government area of Plateau state, Nigeria. Journal of Production, Agriculture and Technology 6(1): 1-11, ISSN: 0794-5213 Panagariya, A. (2002). A Case for Import Substitution? Publisher: Oxford University Press, pp 544.
14. Pouget-Abadie, T. (2016). How successful was the policy of import substituting industrialisation in Latin America? London School of Economics and Political Sciences.
15. Shuman, M. H. (2006). The small-mart revolution: how local businesses are beating the global competition. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler, ISBN-13: 978-1576753866
16. Uma, K. E. (2007). "Population, agriculture, food and poverty in Nigeria: An over view," Journal of Management Sciences, 3, 23-43 Oladimeji, Y. (2017). trend of rice production and importation parameters in Nigeria from 1960-2015. Nigerian Journal of Agriculture, Food and Environment. 13(1): 126-132 Zhu, T. (2006). Rethinking ISI: Development Strategies and Institutions in Taiwan and China, ISSN 1810-2611 ISBN 92-9190-854-1