China Total Energy Consumption Forecast with Optimized Continuous Conformable Fractional Grey Model

Abstract

One of the methods used for forecasting of the time series is the fractional grey modeling approach. In this paper, the OCCFGM(1,1) model is utilized to forecasting of the total energy consumption data of China. The optimal values of $\alpha$ and $r$, which are fractional parameters in the model, are calculated using the Brute Force algorithm. Data collected from official sources from 2013 to 2022 are used to build the forecasting model, while data from 2013 to 2020 are employed to evaluate the accuracy at the model. The obtained results indicate that the OCCFGM(1,1) model exhibits superior forecasting performance compared to the other models under consideration.

Keywords

• Conformable fractional calculus
• Energy consumption
• Fractional grey model
• Brute Force
• Least squares method.
• OCCFGM

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