DÖVİZ KURU BELİRSİZLİKLERİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN TEKNOLOJİ İÇERİĞİNE GÖRE SINIFLANDIRILAN ÜRÜNLERİN İHRACAT AKIMLARINA ETKİLERİ: PANEL ARDL ANALİZİ

Year 2022, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 90 - 108, 22.03.2022

Çağlayan Aslan , Ferdi Akpiliç

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin teknoloji sınıflamasına göre gruplandırılan ihracatı ile reel ve nominal döviz kuru belirsizliği arasındaki
ilişkileri araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada, Türkiye’nin ihracat yaptığı 55 ülkeye ilişkin 2013:Ç1-2021:Ç2 dönemini kapsayan panel veri
seti Havuzlanmış Panel ARDL modeli ile tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar döviz kuru belirsizliklerinin uzun dönemde ihracatı
negatif etkilediğini işaret etmektedir. Kısa dönemde, döviz kuru belirsizliklerinin yüksek ve orta yüksek teknoloji ihracat akımlarına
etki etmediği, orta düşük ve düşük teknoloji ihracatını olumlu yönde etkilediği gözlenmektedir. Uzun dönemde, ihracatın döviz kuru
belirsizliği esnekliğinin düşük teknolojiden yükseğe doğru gidildikçe azaldığı gözlenmiş olup bu durumun kar marjının görece yüksek
olduğu yüksek teknolojili ürünlerin döviz kuru değişimlerine daha az duyarlı olmasından kaynaklandığı düşünülmektedir. Kısa
dönemde artan döviz kuru belirsizliklerinin orta düşük ve düşük teknoloji ihracatına artırıcı yönde etki etmesi, pazar olanakları çok
geniş olmayan ve düşük kar marjı ile çalışan aktörlerin piyasaların daha da bozulmadan ihracat yapma taleplerini artırmalarından
kaynaklandığı şeklinde yorumlanmıştır. Makale bulguları yönüyle önemli politika önerileri sunmaktadır.

Keywords

Döviz Kuru Belirsizliği, Teknoloji Yoğunluğuna Göre İhracat, Panel ARDL

THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTIES ON EXPORT FLOWS OF TURKEY'S PRODUCTS CLASSIFIED BY TECHNOLOGY CONTENT: PANEL ARDL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This paper examines the relationships between Turkey's exports, grouped with respect to technology classification, and real and
nominal exchange rate uncertainties. In the paper, the panel data set of Turkey's exports to 55 countries covering the period of 2013:
Q1-2021: Q2 is estimated by the Pooled Panel ARDL model. The obtained results point out that exchange rate uncertainties affect
exports negatively in the long run. In the short term, it is observed that exchange rate uncertainties do not affect high and medium
high technology export flows whereas they affect medium-low and low technology exports positively. In the long run, it has been
established that the elasticity of exchange rate uncertainty of exports gets lower as one moves from low technology to high. It would
be due to the fact that high-tech products with relatively high-profit margins are less sensitive to exchange rate changes. The expanding
of medium-low and low-technology export volumes facing increasing exchange rate uncertainties may be the result of that the actors
whose market opportunities are not very wide and working with low-profit margins increase their export demands before further
deterioration of the markets.

Keywords

Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Tech-Intensity Exporting, Panel ARDL

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