İhracat Çeşitlendirmesinin Belirleyicileri: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

İhracat çeşitlendirmesi ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişki üzerine iki görüş bulunmaktadır. İlki; ülkelerin önce uzmanlaşıp daha sonra çeşitlendirmeye yöneldiklerini iddia ederken, diğeri; gelişmenin sonraki aşamalarında uzmanlaşmanın yeniden ortaya çıkacağını ve U şekilli bir yapı izleyeceğini savunan görüştür. İki görüşün ortak noktası ise özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin kalkınmanın bir aşamasında çeşitlendirme politikasını benimseyeceklerini kabul etmeleridir. Bir ülkenin ihracat sepetini çeşitlendirebilmesi son derece zor ve uzun bir süreçtir. Bu nedenle ihracat sepeti çeşitlendirmesinde uygun politikalar oluşturulabilmesi için çeşitlendirmeyi etkileyen faktörlerin iyi belirlenmesi gerekir. Bu amaçla bu çalışmada ülkelerin ihracat mal çeşitlendirmesini etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çeşitlendirme indeksinin zaman içindeki kalıcılığını açıklamak amacıyla Sistem GMM Yöntemi kullanılmıştır. 2005-2019 dönemi için 55 ülkeden elde edilen bulgular şöyle özetlenebilir: i) İhracat mal çeşitlendirmesinin geçmiş değeri ihracat çeşitlendirmesini açıklamada önemlidir. ii) Ar-ge harcamaları, işe başlama kolaylığı puanı, esğitim, nüfus ve DYY ihracat çeşitlendirmesini arttırmaktadır. iii) Kişi başına düşen GSYİH, doğal kaynak rantı, marka başvuruları, reel efektif döviz kuru ve ithalat konsantrasyon endeksindeki artışların ise ihracat sepeti yoğunlaşmasına neden olduğu görülmüştür.

Keywords

• İhracat çeşitlendirmesi
• dinamik panel veri analizi
• sistem GMM

Determinants of Export Diversification: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis For Selected Countries

Abstract

There are two views on the relationship between export diversification and economic development. While the first view claims that countries specialize before they tend to diversify, other view suggests that specialization will reappear in the later stages of development and will follow a U-shaped structure. These two views share the common point that especially developing countries will adopt a diversification policy at some stage of their development. It is a rather lengthy and challenging process for a country to diversify its export basket. Therefore, in order to develop appropriate policies in export basket diversification, the factors affecting diversification should be determined well. To this end, in this study, it is aimed to determine the factors affecting the diversification of countries in export goods. The System GMM Method was used to explain the persistence of export merchandise diversification over time. Findings from 55 countries for the period 2005-2019 can be summarized as follows: i) The historical value of export goods diversification is essential in explaining export diversification. ii) R&D expenditures, ease of starting business score, education, population and FDI increase export diversification. iii) Increases in per capita GDP, natural resource surplus, trademark applications, real effective exchange rate and import concentration index led to a concentration in the export basket.

Keywords

• Export diversification
• dynamic panel data analysis
• System GMM

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