İhracat Çeşitlendirmesinin Belirleyicileri: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

İhracat çeşitlendirmesi ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişki üzerine iki görüş bulunmaktadır. İlki; ülkelerin önce uzmanlaşıp daha sonra çeşitlendirmeye yöneldiklerini iddia ederken, diğeri; gelişmenin sonraki aşamalarında uzmanlaşmanın yeniden ortaya çıkacağını ve U şekilli bir yapı izleyeceğini savunan görüştür. İki görüşün ortak noktası ise özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin kalkınmanın bir aşamasında çeşitlendirme politikasını benimseyeceklerini kabul etmeleridir. Bir ülkenin ihracat sepetini çeşitlendirebilmesi son derece zor ve uzun bir süreçtir. Bu nedenle ihracat sepeti çeşitlendirmesinde uygun politikalar oluşturulabilmesi için çeşitlendirmeyi etkileyen faktörlerin iyi belirlenmesi gerekir. Bu amaçla bu çalışmada ülkelerin ihracat mal çeşitlendirmesini etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çeşitlendirme indeksinin zaman içindeki kalıcılığını açıklamak amacıyla Sistem GMM Yöntemi kullanılmıştır. 2005-2019 dönemi için 55 ülkeden elde edilen bulgular şöyle özetlenebilir: i) İhracat mal çeşitlendirmesinin geçmiş değeri ihracat çeşitlendirmesini açıklamada önemlidir. ii) Ar-ge harcamaları, işe başlama kolaylığı puanı, esğitim, nüfus ve DYY ihracat çeşitlendirmesini arttırmaktadır. iii) Kişi başına düşen GSYİH, doğal kaynak rantı, marka başvuruları, reel efektif döviz kuru ve ithalat konsantrasyon endeksindeki artışların ise ihracat sepeti yoğunlaşmasına neden olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat çeşitlendirmesi
• dinamik panel veri analizi
• sistem GMM

Determinants of Export Diversification: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis For Selected Countries

Öz

There are two views on the relationship between export diversification and economic development. While the first view claims that countries specialize before they tend to diversify, other view suggests that specialization will reappear in the later stages of development and will follow a U-shaped structure. These two views share the common point that especially developing countries will adopt a diversification policy at some stage of their development. It is a rather lengthy and challenging process for a country to diversify its export basket. Therefore, in order to develop appropriate policies in export basket diversification, the factors affecting diversification should be determined well. To this end, in this study, it is aimed to determine the factors affecting the diversification of countries in export goods. The System GMM Method was used to explain the persistence of export merchandise diversification over time. Findings from 55 countries for the period 2005-2019 can be summarized as follows: i) The historical value of export goods diversification is essential in explaining export diversification. ii) R&D expenditures, ease of starting business score, education, population and FDI increase export diversification. iii) Increases in per capita GDP, natural resource surplus, trademark applications, real effective exchange rate and import concentration index led to a concentration in the export basket.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Export diversification
• dynamic panel data analysis
• System GMM

Kaynakça

1. Acaravcı, A., & Kargı, G. (2015). Türkiye’de ihracatın çeşitlendirilmesi ve ekonomik büyüme. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 1(1), 1-16.
2. Agosin, M. R., Alvarez, R., & Bravo‐Ortega, C. (2012). Determinants of export diversification around the world: 1962–2000. The World Economy, 35(3), 295-315.
3. Amin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, S., & Ferrantino, M. (1997). Export diversification and structural dynamics in the growth process: The case of Chile. Journal of Development Economics, 52(2), 375-391.
4. Amurgo-Pacheco, A., & Pierola, M. D. (2008). Patterns of export diversification in developing countries: intensive and extensive margins: The World Bank.
5. Arawomo, D. F., Oyelade, A. O., & Tella, A. T. (2014). Determinants of Export Diversification in Nigeria: Any Special Role for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)? Journal of Economics and Business Research, 20(2), 21-33.
6. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297.
7. Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.
8. Bas, M., & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2014). Does importing more inputs raise exports? Firm-level evidence from France. Review of World Economics, 150(2), 241-275.

9. Basile, R., Parteka, A., & Pittiglio, R. (2018). Export diversification and economic development: a dynamic spatial data analysis. Review of International Economics, 26(3), 634-650.
10. Baum, C. F. (2006). An introduction to modern econometrics using Stata: Stata press.
11. Baum, C. F., Caglayan, M., & Talavera, O. (2016). R&D expenditures and geographical sales diversification. The Manchester School, 84(2), 197-221.
12. Baum, C. F., Schaffer, M. E., & Stillman, S. (2003). Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing. The Stata Journal, 3(1), 1-31.
13. Bebczuk, R. N., & Berrettoni, D. (2006). Explaining export diversification: an empirical analysis. Documentos de Trabajo.
14. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
15. Bonaglia, F., & Fukasaku, K. (2003). Export Diversification in Low-Income Countries: An International Challenge After Doha. OECD Development Centre Working Papers 209, OECD Publishing.
16. Bond, S. (2002). Dynamic panel models: A guide to micro data methods and practice (Working Paper No. CWPO9/02). London, UK: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Department of Economics, UCL, CEMMAP (Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice).
17. Brenton, P., Newfarmer, R., & Walkenhorst, P. (2009). Avenues for export diversification: Issues for low-income countries. MPRA Paper 22758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
18. Cabral, M. H., & Veiga, P. (2010). Determinants of export diversification and sophistication in Sub-Saharan Africa. FEUNL Working Paper Series No. 550.
19. Can, M., & Doğan, B (2015). İthalat ve ihracat ürün çeşitlendirme ilişkisi: Türkiye örnekleminde nedensellik analizi.Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(3), 191-199.
20. Canare, T. (2018). The Effect of Ease of Doing Business on Firm Creation. Annals of Economics & Finance, 19(2).
21. Caselli, F., Esquivel, G., & Lefort, F. (1996). Reopening the convergence debate: a new look at cross-country growth empirics. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3), 363-389.
22. Djankov, S., La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2002). The regulation of entry. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(1), 1-37.
23. Elhiraika, A. B., & Mbate, M. M. (2014). Assessing the determinants of export diversification in Africa. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 14(1), 147-160.
24. Ferdous, F. B. (2011). Pattern and determinants of export diversification in East Asian economies. International Proceedings of Economics Development and Research, 5, 156-160.
25. Fonchamnyo, D. C., & Akame, A. R. (2017). Determinants of export diversification in Sub-Sahara African region: a fractionalized logit estimation model. Journal of Economics and Finance, 41(2), 330-342.
26. Giri, R., Quayyum, M. S. N., & Yin, R. (2019). Understanding export diversification: Key drivers and policy implications: International Monetary Fund.
27. Goldberg, P. K., Khandelwal, A. K., Pavcnik, N., & Topalova, P. (2010). Imported intermediate inputs and domestic product growth: Evidence from India. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4), 1727-1767.
28. Hounsou, R., & Ayivodji, F. G. (2020). Original Paper Analysis of the Determinants of Export Diversification in the Franc Zone: A Comparative Study in WAEMU and CAEMU Countries. Journal of Economics and Public Finance, 6(1).
29. Imbs, J., & Wacziarg, R. (2003). Stages of diversification. American Economic Review, 93(1), 63-86. Iyoboyi, M. (2019). Macroeconomic Analysis of Export Diversification in Nigeria. Empirical Economic Review, 2(1), 83-116.
30. Jetter, M., & Ramírez Hassan, A. (2015). Want export diversification? Educate the kids first. Economic Inquiry, 53(4), 1765-1782.
31. Kamuganga, D. N. (2012). What drives Africas export diversification? (No. 15/2012). Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper.
32. Kasahara, H., & Lapham, B. (2006). Import protection as export destruction. Queen’s Economics Department Working Paper No. 1064.
33. Kotabe, M. (1990). The relationship between offshore sourcing and innovativeness of US multinational firms: An empirical investigation. Journal of International Business Studies, 21(4), 623-638.
34. Labra, R., & Torrecillas, C. (2018). Estimating dynamic Panel data. A practical approach to perform long panels. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 41(1), 31-52.
35. Melitz, M. J. (2003). The impact of trade on intra‐industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71(6), 1695-1725.
36. Mubeen, N., & Ahmad, N. (2016). Towards measurement and determinants of export diversification: An empirical analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS), 10(3), 588-605.
37. Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1417-1426.
38. Osakwe, P., & Kilolo, J. (2018). What drives export diversification? New evidence from a panel of developing countries. UNCTAD Research Paper No. 3. UNCTAD/SER.
39. Osakwe, P. N., Santos-Paulino, A. U., & Dogan, B. (2018). Trade dependence, liberalization, and exports diversification in developing countries. Journal of African Trade, 5(1-2), 19-34.
40. Parteka, A., & Tamberi, M. (2008). Determinants of export diversification: An empirical investigation. Universita Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia Quaderno di Ricerca(327).
41. Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86-136.
42. Yaşar, E. (2019). Dış Ticarette Uluslararası Mal ve Piyasa Çeşitlendirmesi: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Kümeleme Analizi. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 7(2), 85-106.