The AI Speciation Hypothesis: A Conceptual Framework on Algorithmic Monoculture and Systemic Fragility in the Integration Process of Turkic World Capital Markets

Abstract

This study offers a non-empirical theoretical contribution that conceptually extends the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) to account for the entry of generative and reinforcement learning based Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents into financial market ecology. AMH treats market efficiency not as a fixed equilibrium but as an evolving outcome of competition, adaptation and selection among investor species. Recent evidence, however, suggests that AI agents occupy a qualitatively distinct ecological niche: agents built on shared foundation models can reach collusive outcomes without communication or intent, generating market-wide representation homogeneity. This paper addresses that gap through the AI Speciation Hypothesis (AISH), which conceptualises AI trading agents as a new, self-contained synthetic species within market ecology. Its central proposition, the Monoculture Adaptation Paradox, holds that efficiency gains at the individual-agent level may reduce ecological diversity and thereby increase system-level fragility. The paper extends this framework specifically to the Turkic World, arguing that the accelerating financial institutionalisation under the Organization of Turkic States, the Council of Central Banks, the Turkic Investment Fund, TURANSEZ and the growing integration of Borsa Istanbul with the exchanges of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan may simultaneously generate a regional synthetic species risk through shared dependence on common AI and financial technology infrastructures. A conceptual measurement proposal, the Market Ecological Diversity Index (MEDI), is introduced for future empirical testing, though it is explicitly not tested here. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for Turkic World capital markets and their regulators.

Keywords

• Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
• artificial intelligence
• algorithmic collusion
• Turkic World
• Organization of Turkic States

YAPAY ZEKÂ TÜRLEŞMESİ HİPOTEZİ: TÜRK DÜNYASI SERMAYE PİYASALARININ BÜTÜNLEŞME SÜRECİNDE ALGORİTMİK MONOKÜLTÜR VE SİSTEMİK KIRILGANLIK ÜZERİNE KAVRAMSAL BİR ÇERÇEVE

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Adaptif Piyasalar Hipotezi (APH) çerçevesini üretken ve pekiştirmeli öğrenme tabanlı Yapay Zekâ (YZ) ajanlarının finansal piyasa ekolojisine girişini açıklayacak biçimde kavramsal olarak genişletmeyi amaçlayan ampirik olmayan teorik bir katkı sunmaktadır. APH, piyasa etkinliğini sabit bir denge değil, yatırımcı türleri arasındaki rekabet, adaptasyon ve doğal seçilim süreçlerinin evrilen bir sonucu olarak ele alır. Ancak son yıllarda biriken kanıtlar, YZ ajanlarının klasik yatırımcı türlerinden temelci, teknik analist, gürültü tüccarı, piyasa yapıcı niteliksel olarak farklı bir ekolojik konuma sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Ortak temel modellere dayanan bu ajanlar iletişim veya niyet olmaksızın kolüzyona varabilmekte ve piyasa genelinde bir temsil homojenliği üretmektedir. Bu çalışma söz konusu boşluğu, Yapay Zekâ Türleşmesi Hipotezi (YZTH) adını verdiğimiz bir çerçeveyle ele almakta; YZ ajanlarını piyasa ekolojisinin yeni ve kendine özgü bir sentetik türü olarak kavramsallaştırmaktadır. Çalışmanın merkezi önermesi, bu sentetik türün bireysel düzeydeki verimlilik kazanımlarının ekolojik çeşitliliği azaltarak sistem düzeyinde kırılganlığı artırabileceğini öne süren Monokültür Uyum Paradoksudur. Çalışma bu çerçeveyi özellikle Türk Dünyası bağlamına taşımakta; Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı (TDT) çatısı altında hızlanan mali kurumsallaşmanın (Merkez Bankaları Konseyi, Türk Yatırım Fonu, TURANSEZ) ve Borsa İstanbul, Kazakistan Borsası, Özbekistan ve Azerbaycan sermaye piyasalarının artan bütünleşme eğiliminin aynı zamanda ortak yapay zekâ finansal teknoloji altyapılarına bağımlılık yoluyla bölgesel bir sentetik tür riskini de beraberinde getirebileceğini tartışmaktadır. Gelecekteki ampirik sınamalar için kavramsal bir ölçüm önerisi olarak Piyasa Ekolojik Çeşitlilik Endeksi (PEÇE) tanıtılmakta, ancak bu endeksin bu çalışmada test edilmediği açıkça belirtilmektedir. Çalışma, Türk Dünyası sermaye piyasaları ve düzenleyici kurumları için politika önerileriyle sonuçlanmaktadır.

Keywords

• Adaptif Piyasalar Hipotezi
• Yapay Zeka
• Algoritmik kolüzyon
• Türk Dünyası
• Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı

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