YÜKSELEN SANAYİ EKONOMİLERİNDE BALASSA-SAMUELSON HİPOTEZİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Verimlilik farklarına göre uzun dönem reel döviz kuru hareketlerini açıklayan Balassa-Samuelson Etkisi ampirik literatürde hala önemini korumaktadır. İlgili çalışmalarda, ülkelerin ekonomik gelişmişlik düzeyine bağlı olarak farklı sonuçlar elde edilebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada panel veri analizi ile 27 Yükselen Sanayi Ekonomisi için 1992-2019 yılları arasında Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hipotezinin geçerliliği test edilmiştir. Çalışmada, ülkelere özgü yapılan analizlerde ilk olarak yatay kesit birimleri arasındaki bağımlılık incelenmiş ve ardından birim kök testi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara bağlı olarak uygulanan Westerlund (2007) ECM bootstrap eşbütünleşme testi ile göreli verimlilik ve reel efektif döviz kuru değişkenleri arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı kanıtlanmıştır. Son olarak panel AMG yöntemiyle yapılan katsayı tahmini sonuçları, bazıları dışında ülkelerin büyük çoğunluğunda BS hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca Arjantin, Endonezya ve Bulgaristan’da BS etkisinin diğer ülkelere göre çok daha yüksek olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Balassa-Samuelson Etkisi
• Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru
• Verimlilik
• Panel Veri Analizi

BALASSA-SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS IN EMERGİNG INDUSTRIAL ECONOMİES: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract

Balassa-Samuelson Effect, which explains real exchange rate movements according to productivity differences, still maintains its importance in empirical literature. In related studies, different results can be obtained depending on the economic development level of the countries. In this study, the validity of Balassa-Samuelson Effect was tested between 1992 and 2019 for 27 emerging industrialized countries with panel data analysis. In the study, in country-specific analyzes, firstly, the dependency between cross-section units was examined and then unit root test was performed. The Westerlund (2007) ECM bootstrap cointegration test, which is applied depending on the results obtained, proved the existence of a long-term relationship between relative productivity and real effective exchange rate variables. Finally, the results of the coefficient estimation made by the panel AMG method revealed that the BS hypothesis is valid in most of the countries except some. In addition, it has been observed that the BS impact in Argentina, Indonesia and Bulgaria is much higher than in other countries.

Keywords

• Balassa-Samuelson Effect
• Real Effective Exchange Rate
• Productivity
• Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

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