SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH, GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE UU ECONOMY

Abstract

Environmental disasters in recent years, global warming, and political tensions between countries have made our world uninhabitable and caused concerns. This situation occupies the agenda of both national and international organizations and forces them to produce preventive policies. Efforts to improve the conditions of countries with unsustainable policies may adversely affect future generations' living spaces and situations. For this reason, the necessity of governments to design their sustainable economic growth policies by considering their environmental performance is becoming increasingly important daily. This indicates the need to identify the factors that impact environmental performance and to design sustainable economic policies that improve environmental performance. For this reason, in this study, the relationship between sustainable economic growth and geopolitical risk with environmental performance for the period 1970-2021 for the USA was examined with the ARDL Bounds Test approach. According to the long-term coefficients obtained from the ARDL Bounds Test approach, it has been determined that economic growth and non-renewable energy consumption negatively affect environmental performance. In contrast, renewable energy consumption positively affects environmental performance in the USA. In addition, it was concluded that there is no statistically significant relationship between geopolitical risk and trade openness on environmental performance in the USA. These findings indicate that promoting renewable energy consumption is an important policy component for environmental performance. It is thought that meeting the energy needs of the US economy from renewable sources can contribute to increasing biocapacity and reducing the ecological footprint.

Keywords

• Sustainable Economic Growth
• Geopolitical Risk
• Load Capacity Factor
• Environmental Performance

SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR EKONOMİK BÜYÜME, JEOPOLİTİK RİSK VE ÇEVRE PERFORMANSI: ABD EKONOMİSİNDEN KANITLAR

Abstract

Son yıllarda yaşanan çevresel felaketler, küresel ısınma ve ülkeler arasındaki siyasi gerilimler dünyamızı yaşanamaz hale getirmekte ve endişelere neden olmaktadır. Bu durum hem ulusal hem de uluslararası kuruluşların gündemini meşgul etmekte ve önleyici politika üretmeye zorlamaktadır. Ülkelerin mevcut koşullarını, sürdürülemez politikalarla iyileştirme çabaları, gelecek nesillerin yaşam alanlarını ve koşullarını olumsuz etkileyebilecektir. Bu nedenle ülkelerin sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümeyi politikalarını, çevresel performansını dikkate alarak tasarlamalarının gerekliliği her geçen gün daha da önemli hale gelmektedir. Bu durum çevre performansı üzerinde etkisi olan faktörlerin belirlenmesi ve çevre performansını iyileştirici sürdürülebilir ekonomi politikaların tasarlanmasına olan ihtiyaca işaret etmektedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmada ABD için 1970-2021 dönemi yıllık verileriyle sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme ve jeopolitik riskin çevre performansı ilişkisi ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımıyla incelenmiştir. ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımından elde edilen uzun dönem katsayılarına göre ABD’de, ekonomik büyüme ve yenilenemez enerji tüketiminin çevre performansını negatif, yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin ise çevre performansını pozitif etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca ABD’de jeopolitik risk ve ticari açıklığın çevre performansı üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişkisinin olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu bulgular, yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin teşvik edilmesinin çevre performansı için önemli bir politika bileşeni olduğuna işaret etmektedir. ABD ekonomisinde enerji ihtiyacının yenilenebilir kaynaklardan sağlanmasının biyolojik kapasitenin arttırılması ve ekolojik ayak izin azaltılmasına katkı sağlayabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• Sürdürülebilir Ekonomik Büyüme
• Jeopolitik Risk
• Yük Kapasitesi Faktörü
• Çevre Performansı

References

1. Acaravci, A. & Ozturk, I. (2010). On the Relationship between Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in Europe. Energy, 35(12), 5412-5420.
2. Adams, S., Adedoyin, F., Olaniran, E. & Bekun, F. V. (2020). Energy Consumption, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Carbon Emissions; Causality Evidence from Resource Rich Economies. Economic Analysis and Policy, 0(68), 179-190.
3. Adebayo, T. S. & Acheampong, A. O. (2022). Modelling the Globalization-CO2 Emission Nexus in Australia: Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile Approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(7), 9867-9882.
4. Adebayo, T. S., Akadiri, S. S., Riti, J. S. & Tony Odu, A. (2019). Interaction among Geopolitical Risk, Trade Openness, Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions and Its Implication on Climate Change in India. Energy & Environment, 0958305X221083236.
5. Aksoy Özcan, B. (2022). Çevre Sorunlarının Küreselleşmenin Yapısal Sorunları Açısından Bir Değerlendirmesi. Beykoz Akademi Dergisi, 10(2), 408-436.
6. Alsagr, N. & van Hemmen, S. (2021). The Impact of Financial Development and Geopolitical Risk on Renewable Energy Consumption: Evidence from Emerging Markets. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 0(28), 25906-25919.
7. Anser, M. K., Syed, Q. R. & Apergis, N. (2021a). Does Geopolitical Risk Escalate CO2 Emissions? Evidence from the BRICS Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(35), 48011-48021.
8. Anser, M. K., Syed, Q. R., Lean, H. H., Alola, A. A. & Ahmad, M. (2021b). Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies. Sustainability, 13(11), 5866.

9. Arslan, C. K. (2019). Jeopolitik Riskin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(6), 435-441.
10. Aslam, B., Hu, J., Hafeez, M., Ma, D., AlGarni, T. S., Saeed, M. & Hussain, S. (2021). Applying Environmental Kuznets Curve Framework to Assess the Nexus of Industry, Globalization, and CO2 Emission. Environmental Technology & Innovation, 0(21), 101377.
11. Balcilar, M., Bonato, M., Demirer, R. & Gupta, R. (2018). Geopolitical Risks and Stock Market Dynamics of the BRICS. Economic Systems, 42(2), 295-306.
12. Balli, F., Uddin, G. S. & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2019). Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Demand in Emerging Economies. Tourism Economics, 25(6), 997-1005.
13. Bildirici, M. E. (2021). Terrorism, Environmental Pollution, Foreign Direct İnvestment (FDI), Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidences from China, India, Israel, and Turkey. Energy & Environment, 32(1), 75-95.
14. Bilgin, M. H., Gozgor, G. & Karabulut, G. (2020). How do Geopolitical Risks Affect Government İnvestment? An Empirical İnvestigation. Defence and Peace Economics, 31(5), 550-564.
15. Bouoiyour, J., Selmi, R., Hammoudeh, S. & Wohar, M. E. (2019). What are the Categories of Geopolitical Risks That Could Drive Oil Prices Higher? Acts or Threats? Energy Economics, 0(84), 104523.
16. Cai, Y. & Wu, Y. (2021). Time-Varying Interactions between Geopolitical Risks and Renewable Energy Consumption. International Review of Economics & Finance, 0(74), 116-137.
17. Caldara, D. & Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring Geopolitical Risk”, FRB International Finance Discussion. Paper, No: 1222.
18. Cengiz, O. & Manga, M. (2022). Is There Any Relationship between Geopolitical Risk and Climate Change? Ekonomski Vjesnik, 35(1), 99-112.
19. Chen, J., Wang, P., Cui, L., Huang, S. & Song, M. (2018). Decomposition and Decoupling Analysis of CO2 Emissions in OECD. Applied Energy, 0(231), 937-950.
20. Cheng, C. H. J. & Chiu, C. W. J. (2018). How Important are Global Geopolitical Risks to Emerging Countries? International Economics, 0(156), 305-325.
21. Climate Trace (2021). Global Emissions. https://climatetrace.org/ adresinden 20.07.2023 tarihinde erişildi.
22. Coşkun, H. & Eygü, H. (2020). Ar-Ge Harcamaları ve İhracat İlişkisinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 0(8), 233-242.
23. Coşkun, H. & Kandemir Kuloğlu, B. (2022). Türkiye’de Banka Kredilerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, 6(1), 44-58.
24. Cunado, J., Gupta, R., Lau, C. K. M. & Sheng, X. (2020). Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices. Defence and Peace Economics, 31(6), 692-706.
25. Dutta, A. & Dutta, P. (2022). Geopolitical Risk and Renewable Energy Asset Prices: Implications for Sustainable Development. Renewable Energy, 0(196), 518-525.
26. Dünya Bankası (2023). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators adresinden 20.07.2023 tarihinde erişildi.
27. Economic Policy Uncertainty (2023). Jeopolitk Risk Endeksi. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/gpr.html adresinden 20.07.2023 tarihinde erişildi.
28. Flouros, F., Pistikou, V. & Plakandaras, V. (2022). Geopolitical Risk as a Determinant of Renewable Energy İnvestments. Energies, 15(4), 1498.
29. Global Footprint Network, (2023). National Footprint Accounts, Ecological Footprint. https://data.footprintnetwork.org/#/ adresinden 20.07.2023 tarihinde erişildi.
30. Gozgor, G., Lau, M. C. K., Zeng, Y., Yan, C. & Lin, Z. (2022). The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Tourism Supply in Developing Economies: The Moderating Role of Social Globalization. Journal of Travel Research, 61(4), 872-886.
31. Grossman, G. M. & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic Growth and the Environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377.
32. Gupta, R., Gozgor, G., Kaya, H. & Demir, E. (2019). Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Trade Flows: Evidence from the Gravity Model. Eurasian Economic Review, 9(4), 515–530.
33. Ha, L. T. (2023). A Wavelet Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness between Geopolitical Risk and Renewable Energy Volatility during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Ukraine-Russia Conflicts. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-16.
34. Hashmi, S. M., Bhowmik, R., Inglesi-Lotz, R. & Syed, Q. R. (2022). Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis Amidst Geopolitical Risk: Global Evidence Using Bootstrap ARDL Approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(16), 24049-24062.
35. Husnain, M. I. U., Syed, Q. R., Bashir, A. & Khan, M. A. (2022). Do Geopolitical Risk and Energy Consumption Contribute to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from E7 Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(27), 41640-41652.
36. Isik, C., Ongan, S., Ozdemir, D., Ahmad, M., Irfan, M., Alvarado, R. & Ongan, A. (2021). The Increases and Decreases of the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) for 8 OECD Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 0(28), 28535-28543.
37. Kartal, M. T. (2022). The Role of Consumption of Energy, Fossil Sources, Nuclear Energy, and Renewable Energy on Environmental Degradation in Top-Five Carbon Producing Countries. Renewable Energy, 0(184), 871-880.
38. Ma, W., Nasriddinov, F., Haseeb, M., Ray, S., Kamal, M., Khalid, N. & Ur Rehman, M. (2022). Revisiting the İmpact of Energy Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment, and Geopolitical Risk on CO2 Emissions: Comparing Developed and Developing Countries. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 0(1615), 1-10.
39. Magazzino, C., Toma, P., Fusco, G., Valente, D. & Petrosillo, I. (2022). Renewable Energy Consumption, Environmental Degradation and Economic Growth: The Greener the Richer? Ecological Indicators, 0(139), 108912.
40. Munir, Q., Lean, H. H. & Smyth, R. (2020). CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the ASEAN-5 Countries: A Cross-Sectional Dependence Approach. Energy Economics, 0(85), 104571.
41. Narayan, P. K. & Narayan, S. (2006). Savings Behaviour in Fiji: An Empirical Assessment Using the ARDL Approach to Cointegration. International Journal of Social Economics, 33(7), 468-480.
42. Nguyen, T. T. T., Pham, B. T. & Sala, H. (2022). Being an Emerging Economy: To What Extent Do Geopolitical Risks Hamper Technology and FDI Inflows? Economic Analysis and Policy, 0(74), 728-746.
43. Orhan, A., Adebayo, T. S., Genç, S. Y. & Kirikkaleli, D. (2021). Investigating the Linkage between Economic Growth and Environmental Sustainability in India: Do Agriculture and Trade Openness Matter? Sustainability, 13(9), 4753.
44. Our World in Data (2023). Renewable Energy Data. https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy adresinden 20.07.2023 tarihinde erişildi.
45. Özkan, O. (2020). Jeopolitik Risklerin Döviz Piyasaları Üzerindeki Etkileri: Parametrik Olmayan Kantil Nedensellik Testi ile BRICS-T Ülkeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 22(4), 611-628.
46. Pata, U. K. & Ertugrul, H. M. (2023). Do the Kyoto Protocol, Geopolitical Risks, Human Capital and Natural Resources Affect the Sustainability Limit? A New Environmental Approach Based on the LCC Hypothesis. Resources Policy, 0(81), 103352.
47. Pata, U. K. & Isik, C. (2021). Determinants of the Load Capacity Factor in China: A Novel Dynamic ARDL Approach for Ecological Footprint Accounting. Resources Policy, 0(74), 102313.
48. Pata, U. K. & Kartal, M. T. (2023). Impact of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Sources on Environment Quality: Testing the EKC and LCC Hypotheses for South Korea. Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 55(2), 587-594.
49. Pata, U. K. & Samour, A. (2022). Do Renewable and Nuclear Energy Enhance Environmental Quality in France? A New EKC Approach with the Load Capacity Factor. Progress in Nuclear Energy, 0(149), 104249.
50. Pata, U. K. & Yilanci, V. (2020). Financial Development, Globalization and Ecological Footprint in G7: Further Evidence from Threshold Cointegration and Fractional Frequency Causality Tests. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 27(4), 803-825.
51. Pata, U. K. & Yilanci, V. (2020). Financial Development, Globalization and Ecological Footprint in G7: Further Evidence from Threshold Cointegration and Fractional Frequency Causality Tests. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 27(4), 803-825.
52. Pata, U. K. (2021). Do Renewable Energy and Health Expenditures Improve Load Capacity Factor in the USA and Japan? A New Approach to Environmental Issues. The European Journal of Health Economics, 22(9), 1427-1439.
53. Pehlivanoğlu, F., Akdağ, S. & Alola, A. A. (2021). The Causal Nexus of Geopolitical Risks, Consumer and Producer Confidence İndexes: Evidence from Selected Economies. Quality & Quantity, 0(55), 1261-1273.
54. Qi, Y., Bhunia, P., Zhang, T. C., Luo, F., Lin, P. & Chen, Y. (2020). Environmental Degradation and Sustainability. Sustainability: Fundamentals and Applications, 483-505.
55. Riti, J. S., Shu, Y. & Riti, M. K. J. (2022). Geopolitical Risk and Environmental Degradation in BRICS: Aggregation Bias and Policy İnference. Energy Policy, 0(166), 113010.
56. Saboori, B., Sulaiman, J. & Mohd, S. (2012). Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in Malaysia: A Cointegration Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Energy Policy, 0(51), 184-191.
57. Saint Akadiri, S., Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C. & Avci, T. (2020). Does Causality between Geopolitical Risk, Tourism and Economic Growth Matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 0(43), 273-277.
58. Shahbaz, M., Mutascu, M. & Azim, P. (2013). Environmental Kuznets Curve in Romania and the Role of Energy Consumption. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 0(18), 165-173.
59. Siche, R., Pereira, L., Agostinho, F. & Ortega, E. (2010). Convergence of Ecological Footprint And Emergy Analysis as a Sustainability Indicator of Countries: Peru as Case Study. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 15(10), 3182-3192.
60. Silva, S., Soares, I. & Pinho, C. (2012). The Impact of Renewable Energy Sources on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions-a SVAR Approach. European Research Studies, 15(4), 133-144.
61. Soltani, H., Triki, M. B., Ghandri, M. & Abderzag, F. T. (2021). Does Geopolitical Risk and Financial Development Matter for Economic Growth in MENA Countries? Journal of International Studies, 14(1).
62. Soybilgen, B., Kaya, H. & Dedeoglu, D. (2019). Evaluating the Effect of Geopolitical Risks on the Growth Rates of Emerging Countries. Economics Bulletin, 39(1), 717-725.
63. Uysal, Ö. (2013). Sürdürülebilir Büyüme Kavramının Çevre ve Ekonomik Boyutlarının Araştırılması. Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 5(2), 111-118.
64. Vakulchuk, R., Overland, I. & Scholten, D. (2020). Renewable Energy and Geopolitics: A Review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 0(122), 109547.
65. Wang, K. H., Kan, J. M., Jiang, C. F. & Su, C. W. (2022). Is Geopolitical Risk Powerful Enough to Affect Carbon Dioxide Emissions? Evidence from China. Sustainability, 14(13), 7867.
66. Xue, C., Shahbaz, M., Ahmed, Z., Ahmad, M. & Sinha, A. (2022). Clean Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Environmental Sustainability: What is the Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty? Renewable Energy, 0(184), 899-907.
67. Yang, C., Niu, Z. & Gao, W. (2022). The Time-Varying Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Shocks on The Commodity Market Prices: Evidence from the TVP-VAR-SV Approach. Resources Policy, 0(76), 102600.
68. Yang, K., Wei, Y., Li, S. & He, J. (2021). Geopolitical Risk and Renewable Energy Stock Markets: An İnsight from Multiscale Dynamic Risk Spillover. Journal of Cleaner Production, 0(279), 123429.
69. Yuping, L., Ramzan, M., Xincheng, L., Murshed, M., Awosusi, A. A., BAH, S. I. & Adebayo, T. S. (2021). Determinants of Carbon Emissions in Argentina: The Roles of Renewable Energy Consumption and Globalization. Energy Reports, 0(7), 4747-4760.
70. Zhao, W., Zhong, R., Sohail, S., Majeed, M. T. & Ullah, S. (2021). Geopolitical Risks, Energy Consumption, and CO 2 Emissions in BRICS: An Asymmetric Analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 0(28), 39668-39679.
71. Zhou, L., Gozgor, G., Huang, M. & Lau, M. C. K. (2020). The impact of Geopolitical Risks on Financial Development: Evidence from Emerging Markets. Journal of Competitiveness, 12(1), 93.