Türkiye’de Sarıçam (Pinus Sylvestris L.) Uygun Yayılış Alanlarının Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Etkileri ile Olası Değişimi

Abstract

Sarıçam (Pinus sylvestris) dünyada Pinaceae ailesinin en geniş alanlarda yayılış gösteren üyesi olup, Türkiye’de 738.000 hektar alan kaplamaktadır. Geniş alanlarda yayılış göstermesi, türü küresel iklim değişikliğinin etkileri ile geniş alanlarda populasyon kaybı riskine açık hale getirmektedir. Küresel iklim değişikliği sürecinde bu kayıpları en aza indirebilmek için, türlerin uygun yayılış alanlarındaki değişikliklerin tahmin edilerek, gerekli tedbirlerin alınması önemlidir. Bu çalışmada da sarıçamın Türkiye’deki uygun yayılış alanlarının nasıl değişeceği belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında türün uygun yayılış alanları GAM (Generalized Additive Model) modeli kullanılarak SSPs 245 ve SSPs 585 senaryolarına göre değerlendirilmiş, 2060 ve 2100 yıllarına kadar olan süreçteki değişimleri tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçları, sürecin etkilerinin kısa sürede ve oldukça yıkıcı olacağını, örneğin SSPs 245 senaryosuna göre 2060 yılına kadar %19’u aşan oranda bir kayıp yaşanabileceğini göstermektedir. Bundan dolayı populasyon kayıplarını en aza indirebilmek için, olası etkilerin önceden belirlenerek gerekli planlama çalışmalarının yapılması ve türün ihtiyaç duyduğu göç mekanizmasının insan eliyle sağlanması önerilmektedir.

Keywords

• Küresel iklim değişikliği
• sarıçam
• GAM
• SSPs senaryoları

Possible Changes in Suitable Distribution Areas of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Türkiye Due to the Effects of Global Climate Change

Abstract

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), one of the most widely distributed species of the Pinaceae family globally, covers approximately 738,000 hectares in Türkiye. Its broad distribution makes it vulnerable to population losses due to the impacts of climate change. Predicting shifts in suitable habitats is essential to minimize these potential losses. This study aims to estimate future changes in the suitable distribution areas of Scots pine in Türkiye using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Projections were made under SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 climate scenarios for the years 2060 and 2100. The results indicate that climate change may cause significant habitat loss in a relatively short time. For instance, under the SSPs 245 scenario, more than 19% of suitable areas could be lost by 2060. Therefore, to minimize the population losses, it is recommended to identify the potential effects in advance in order to do the necessary planning and provide the migration mechanism required by the species through human intervention.

Keywords

• A global climate change
• scots pine
• GAM
• SSPs scenarios

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