POLİTİK DALGALANMALAR YAKLAŞIMI ÇERÇEVESİNDE TÜRKİYE'DEKİ SEÇİMLERİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2005, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 1, 55 - 66, 27.11.2010

İbrahim Bakırtaş Cüneyt Koyuncu

Öz

Bu çalışmada , beş makroekonomik değişken için seçimsel politik
dalgalanmalar (EPBC) hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerliliği test edilmektedir.
Potansiyel içsellik problemi araç değişken (AD) yöntemiyle giderilmektedir.
EKK yöntemi tahminlemesi, EPBC hipotezinin gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılat ve kamu
harcamaları için varolduğunu; ancak M1, bankalararası faiz oranları ve
enflasyon değişkenleri için ise varolmadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Seçimsel-politik dalgalanmalar, fırsatçı seçim zamanlaması, politik parti, oylama davranışı, makroekonomik performans

Kaynakça

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• , TCMB, www.tcmb.gov.tr