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İHRACATTA ÜRÜN ÇEŞİTLİLİĞİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE DENEYİMİ (1980-2006)

Year 2010, Volume: 24 Issue: 2, 259 - 287, 06.07.2011

Abstract

Bu çalışma ihracatta ürün çeşitliliğinin Türkiye ekonomisi
açısından önemini ele almaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışmada korelasyon
katsayıları, Granger nedensellik testleri, regresyon analizleri ve Johansen eş-
bütünleşme testlerine yer verilmiştir. Korelasyon analizi sonuçları, hem imalat
sanayi ağırlıklı bir ihracat yapısının hem de ihracatın ürün çeşitliliğinin
Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyüme performansı üzerinde olumlu etkilere sahip
olduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı şekilde, Granger nedensellik testleri de benzer
sonuçlar vermiştir. Bununla birlikte regresyon analizleri, kısa dönemde ihracatta
ürün çeşitliliği ile ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiki açıdan anlamlı olmayan
katsayılarla sonuçlanmıştır. Veriler, Johansen eş-bütünleşme testleri ile analiz
edildiğinde, uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat çeşitliliği arasında
istatistiki açıdan anlamlı ilişkiler yakalanmıştır. Sonuç olarak bu bulgular,
Türkiye’nin uzun dönem ekonomik büyümesi üzerinde imalat sanayi ağırlıklı
bir ihracat yapısı ile ihracatta yüksek ürün çeşitliliğinin önemi üzerine vurgu
yapmaktadır.

References

  • Abou-Stait, Fouad, 2005. “Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An Application of Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Egypt, 1977-2003,” Economic Research Working Paper Series, No: 76, African Development Bank.
  • Ahmad, Jaleel, and Kwan, Andy C.C., 1991. “Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Africa,” Economics Letters, 37(3): 243-248.
  • Alam, M. Imam, 2003. “Manufactured Exports, Capital Good Imports, and Economic Growth: Experience of Mexico and Brazil,” International Economic Journal, 17(4): 85-105.
  • Al-Marhubi, Fahim, 2000. “Export Diversification and Growth: An Empirical Investigation,” Applied Economics Letters, 7(9): 559-562.
  • Amable, Bruno, 2000. “International Specialisation and Growth,” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11(4): 413-431.
  • Balaguer, Jacint, and Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2004a. “Structural Change in Exports and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Spain (1961-2000),” Applied Economics, 36(5): 473- 477.
  • Balaguer, Jacint, and Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2004b. “Export Composition and Spanish Economic Growth: Evidence from the 20th Century,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(2): 165-179.
  • Bilgin, Cevat ve Ahmet Şahbaz (2009), “Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri”, Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1): 177-198.
  • Cuaresma, Jesús Crespo, and Julia Wörz, 2005. “On Export Composition and Growth,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 141(1): 33-49.
  • Dawe David, 1996. “A New Look at the Effects of Export Instability on Invesment and Growth,” World Development, 24 (12): 1906-1913.
  • Değer, Mustafa Kemal, 2007. İhracatın Kompozisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Orta Gelirli Ülkeler Üzerine Panel Veri Analizleri (1982-2004), İmaj Yayınevi, Ankara.
  • De Piñeres, Sheila A. G., and Michael Ferrantino, 1997. “Export Diversification and Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Chile,” Journal of Development Economics, 52(2): 375-391.
  • De Ferranti, David, Guillermo E. Perry, Daniel Lederman, and William F. Maloney, 2002. “From Natural Resources to the Knowledge Economy: Trade and Job Quality,” Latin American and Caribbean Studies, Viewpoints, 23440, World Bank, Washington DC.
  • Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. “Openness, Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries,” Journal of Economic Literature, 31(3): 1358-1393.
  • Erdoğan, Savaş (2006), “Türkiye’nin İhracat Yapısındaki Değişme ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Koentegrasyon ve Nedensellik Testi Uygulaması”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Karaman İİBF Dergisi, 10(9): 30-39.
  • Feder, Gershon, 1982. “On Exports and Economic Growth,” Journal of Development Economics, 12 (1-2): 59-73.
  • Fosu, Augustin K., 1990. “Export Composition and the Impact of Exports on Economic Growth of Developing Economies,” Economics Letters, 34(1): 67-71.
  • Ghatak, Subrata, Chris Milner, and Utku Utkulu, 1997. “Exports, Export Composition and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Malaysia,” Applied Economics, 29(2): 213-223.
  • Ghartey, Edward E., 1993. “Causal Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan, Japan and the U.S.,” Applied Economics, 25(9): 1145-1152.
  • Giles, David E.A., Judith A. Giles, and Ewen McCann, 1992. “Causality, Unit Roots and Export-Led Growth: The New Zealand Experience,” Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 1(2): 195-218.
  • Giles, Judith A., and Cara L. Williams, 2000. “Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-Causality Results: Part 1,” Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9(3): 261-337.
  • Glezakos Constantine, 1973. “Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Statistical Verification,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 21 (4): 670-678.
  • Greenaway, David, and David Sapsford, 1994a. “What Does Liberalization Do for Exports and Growth,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130 (1): 152-174.
  • Greenaway, David, and David Sapsford, 1994b. “Exports, Growth, and Liberalization: An Evaluation,”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 16(2): 165-186.
  • Greenaway, David, Wyn Morgan, and Peter Wright, 1999. “Exports, Export Composition and Growth,” Journal of Irternational Trade and Economic Development, 8(1): 41-51.
  • Guillaumont, Patrick, 1987. “From Export Instability Effects to International Stabilization Policies,” World Development, 15 (5): 633-643.
  • Hachicha, Néjıb, 2003. “Exports, Export Composition and Growth: A Simultaneous Error-Correctıon Model for Tunisia,” International Economic Journal, 17(1): 101-120.
  • Herzer, Dierk, and Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2004. “Export Diversification, Externalities and Growth,” Discussion Papers No: 99, Goettingen: Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research
  • Herzer, Dierk, and Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2006. “What Does Export Diversification Do for Growth? An Econometric Analysis,” Applied Economics, 38(15): 1825-1838.
  • Herzer, Dierk, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., and Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. “Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth,” Developing Economies, 44(3), 306-328.
  • Hossain, Mohammad A., and Neil D. Karunaratne, 2001. “On Export-Led Growth: Is Manufacturıng Exports a New Engine of Growth For Bangladesh?,” Discussion Paper, No: 297, Brisbane: The University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  • Isham, Jonathan, Michael Woolock, Lant Pritchett, and Gwen Busby, 2003.
  • “The Varieties of Resource Experience: How Natural Resource Export Structures Affect the Political Economy of Economic Growth,” Discussion Paper No: 03-08, Vermont: Middlebury College Economics.
  • Kenen, Peter B., and Constantine S. Voivodas, 1972. “Export Instability and Economic Growth,” Kyklos, 25: 791-804.
  • Lim, David, 1976. “Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Return to Fundamentals,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 38: 311-322.
  • Love, James, 1987. “Export Instability in Less Developed Countries: Consequences and Causes,” Journal of Economic Studies, 14 (2): 3-80.
  • Love, Jim, 1994. “Engines of Growth: The Export and Government Sectors,” World Economy, 17(2): 203-218.
  • MacBean, Alasdair I., 1966. Export Instability and Economic Development, George Allen&Unwin Ltd., London.
  • Maizels, Alfred, 1987. “Commodities in Crisis: An Overview of the Main Issues,” World Development, 15 (5): 537-549.
  • Medina-Smith, Emilio J., 2001. “Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Developing Countries? A Case Study of Costa Rica,” United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities Study Series No: 7, United Nation, New York ve Geneva.
  • Peneder, Michael, 2003. “Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth,” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 14(4): 427-448.
  • Sachs, Jeffrey D., and Andrew M. Warner, 2001. “The Curse of Natural Resources,” European Economic Review, 45 (4-6): 827-838.
  • Seyidoğlu, Halil, 2007. Uluslararası İktisat: Teori, Politika ve Uygulama, Güzem Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • Siliverstovs, Boriss, and Dierk Herzer, 2005. “Manufacturing Exports, Mining Exports and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Chile (1960-2001),” Discussion Papers No: 497, Berlin: German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Subasat, Turan, 2002. “Does Export Promotion Increase Economic Growth? Some Cross-Section Evidence,” Development Policy Review, 20(3): 333-349.
  • Ukpolo, Victor, 1994. “Export Composition and Growth of Selected Low Income African Countries: Evidence from Time-Series Data,” Applied Economics, 26(5): 445-449.
  • United Nations (UN), 2004. “Export Diversification and Economic Growth: The Experience of Selected Least Developed Countries,” Development Papers No:24, New York: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
  • Wörz, Julia, 2004. “Skill Intensity in Foreign Trade and Economic Growth,” Working Paper No: 25, Vienna: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.
  • Xu, Zhenhui, 2000. “Effects of Primary Exports on Industrial Exports and GDP: Empirical Evidence,” Review of Development Economics, 4(3): 307-325.
Year 2010, Volume: 24 Issue: 2, 259 - 287, 06.07.2011

Abstract

References

  • Abou-Stait, Fouad, 2005. “Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An Application of Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Egypt, 1977-2003,” Economic Research Working Paper Series, No: 76, African Development Bank.
  • Ahmad, Jaleel, and Kwan, Andy C.C., 1991. “Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Africa,” Economics Letters, 37(3): 243-248.
  • Alam, M. Imam, 2003. “Manufactured Exports, Capital Good Imports, and Economic Growth: Experience of Mexico and Brazil,” International Economic Journal, 17(4): 85-105.
  • Al-Marhubi, Fahim, 2000. “Export Diversification and Growth: An Empirical Investigation,” Applied Economics Letters, 7(9): 559-562.
  • Amable, Bruno, 2000. “International Specialisation and Growth,” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11(4): 413-431.
  • Balaguer, Jacint, and Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2004a. “Structural Change in Exports and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Spain (1961-2000),” Applied Economics, 36(5): 473- 477.
  • Balaguer, Jacint, and Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2004b. “Export Composition and Spanish Economic Growth: Evidence from the 20th Century,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(2): 165-179.
  • Bilgin, Cevat ve Ahmet Şahbaz (2009), “Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri”, Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1): 177-198.
  • Cuaresma, Jesús Crespo, and Julia Wörz, 2005. “On Export Composition and Growth,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 141(1): 33-49.
  • Dawe David, 1996. “A New Look at the Effects of Export Instability on Invesment and Growth,” World Development, 24 (12): 1906-1913.
  • Değer, Mustafa Kemal, 2007. İhracatın Kompozisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Orta Gelirli Ülkeler Üzerine Panel Veri Analizleri (1982-2004), İmaj Yayınevi, Ankara.
  • De Piñeres, Sheila A. G., and Michael Ferrantino, 1997. “Export Diversification and Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Chile,” Journal of Development Economics, 52(2): 375-391.
  • De Ferranti, David, Guillermo E. Perry, Daniel Lederman, and William F. Maloney, 2002. “From Natural Resources to the Knowledge Economy: Trade and Job Quality,” Latin American and Caribbean Studies, Viewpoints, 23440, World Bank, Washington DC.
  • Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. “Openness, Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries,” Journal of Economic Literature, 31(3): 1358-1393.
  • Erdoğan, Savaş (2006), “Türkiye’nin İhracat Yapısındaki Değişme ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Koentegrasyon ve Nedensellik Testi Uygulaması”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Karaman İİBF Dergisi, 10(9): 30-39.
  • Feder, Gershon, 1982. “On Exports and Economic Growth,” Journal of Development Economics, 12 (1-2): 59-73.
  • Fosu, Augustin K., 1990. “Export Composition and the Impact of Exports on Economic Growth of Developing Economies,” Economics Letters, 34(1): 67-71.
  • Ghatak, Subrata, Chris Milner, and Utku Utkulu, 1997. “Exports, Export Composition and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Malaysia,” Applied Economics, 29(2): 213-223.
  • Ghartey, Edward E., 1993. “Causal Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan, Japan and the U.S.,” Applied Economics, 25(9): 1145-1152.
  • Giles, David E.A., Judith A. Giles, and Ewen McCann, 1992. “Causality, Unit Roots and Export-Led Growth: The New Zealand Experience,” Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 1(2): 195-218.
  • Giles, Judith A., and Cara L. Williams, 2000. “Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-Causality Results: Part 1,” Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9(3): 261-337.
  • Glezakos Constantine, 1973. “Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Statistical Verification,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 21 (4): 670-678.
  • Greenaway, David, and David Sapsford, 1994a. “What Does Liberalization Do for Exports and Growth,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130 (1): 152-174.
  • Greenaway, David, and David Sapsford, 1994b. “Exports, Growth, and Liberalization: An Evaluation,”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 16(2): 165-186.
  • Greenaway, David, Wyn Morgan, and Peter Wright, 1999. “Exports, Export Composition and Growth,” Journal of Irternational Trade and Economic Development, 8(1): 41-51.
  • Guillaumont, Patrick, 1987. “From Export Instability Effects to International Stabilization Policies,” World Development, 15 (5): 633-643.
  • Hachicha, Néjıb, 2003. “Exports, Export Composition and Growth: A Simultaneous Error-Correctıon Model for Tunisia,” International Economic Journal, 17(1): 101-120.
  • Herzer, Dierk, and Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2004. “Export Diversification, Externalities and Growth,” Discussion Papers No: 99, Goettingen: Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research
  • Herzer, Dierk, and Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2006. “What Does Export Diversification Do for Growth? An Econometric Analysis,” Applied Economics, 38(15): 1825-1838.
  • Herzer, Dierk, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., and Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. “Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth,” Developing Economies, 44(3), 306-328.
  • Hossain, Mohammad A., and Neil D. Karunaratne, 2001. “On Export-Led Growth: Is Manufacturıng Exports a New Engine of Growth For Bangladesh?,” Discussion Paper, No: 297, Brisbane: The University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  • Isham, Jonathan, Michael Woolock, Lant Pritchett, and Gwen Busby, 2003.
  • “The Varieties of Resource Experience: How Natural Resource Export Structures Affect the Political Economy of Economic Growth,” Discussion Paper No: 03-08, Vermont: Middlebury College Economics.
  • Kenen, Peter B., and Constantine S. Voivodas, 1972. “Export Instability and Economic Growth,” Kyklos, 25: 791-804.
  • Lim, David, 1976. “Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Return to Fundamentals,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 38: 311-322.
  • Love, James, 1987. “Export Instability in Less Developed Countries: Consequences and Causes,” Journal of Economic Studies, 14 (2): 3-80.
  • Love, Jim, 1994. “Engines of Growth: The Export and Government Sectors,” World Economy, 17(2): 203-218.
  • MacBean, Alasdair I., 1966. Export Instability and Economic Development, George Allen&Unwin Ltd., London.
  • Maizels, Alfred, 1987. “Commodities in Crisis: An Overview of the Main Issues,” World Development, 15 (5): 537-549.
  • Medina-Smith, Emilio J., 2001. “Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Developing Countries? A Case Study of Costa Rica,” United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities Study Series No: 7, United Nation, New York ve Geneva.
  • Peneder, Michael, 2003. “Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth,” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 14(4): 427-448.
  • Sachs, Jeffrey D., and Andrew M. Warner, 2001. “The Curse of Natural Resources,” European Economic Review, 45 (4-6): 827-838.
  • Seyidoğlu, Halil, 2007. Uluslararası İktisat: Teori, Politika ve Uygulama, Güzem Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • Siliverstovs, Boriss, and Dierk Herzer, 2005. “Manufacturing Exports, Mining Exports and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Chile (1960-2001),” Discussion Papers No: 497, Berlin: German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Subasat, Turan, 2002. “Does Export Promotion Increase Economic Growth? Some Cross-Section Evidence,” Development Policy Review, 20(3): 333-349.
  • Ukpolo, Victor, 1994. “Export Composition and Growth of Selected Low Income African Countries: Evidence from Time-Series Data,” Applied Economics, 26(5): 445-449.
  • United Nations (UN), 2004. “Export Diversification and Economic Growth: The Experience of Selected Least Developed Countries,” Development Papers No:24, New York: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
  • Wörz, Julia, 2004. “Skill Intensity in Foreign Trade and Economic Growth,” Working Paper No: 25, Vienna: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.
  • Xu, Zhenhui, 2000. “Effects of Primary Exports on Industrial Exports and GDP: Empirical Evidence,” Review of Development Economics, 4(3): 307-325.
There are 49 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language tr;en
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

M. Kemal Değer This is me

Publication Date July 6, 2011
Published in Issue Year 2010 Volume: 24 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Değer, M. K. (2011). İHRACATTA ÜRÜN ÇEŞİTLİLİĞİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE DENEYİMİ (1980-2006). Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 259-287.

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