İHRACATTA ÜRÜN ÇEŞİTLİLİĞİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE DENEYİMİ (1980-2006)

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 259 - 287, 06.07.2011

M. Kemal Değer

Öz

Bu çalışma ihracatta ürün çeşitliliğinin Türkiye ekonomisi
açısından önemini ele almaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışmada korelasyon
katsayıları, Granger nedensellik testleri, regresyon analizleri ve Johansen eş-
bütünleşme testlerine yer verilmiştir. Korelasyon analizi sonuçları, hem imalat
sanayi ağırlıklı bir ihracat yapısının hem de ihracatın ürün çeşitliliğinin
Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyüme performansı üzerinde olumlu etkilere sahip
olduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı şekilde, Granger nedensellik testleri de benzer
sonuçlar vermiştir. Bununla birlikte regresyon analizleri, kısa dönemde ihracatta
ürün çeşitliliği ile ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiki açıdan anlamlı olmayan
katsayılarla sonuçlanmıştır. Veriler, Johansen eş-bütünleşme testleri ile analiz
edildiğinde, uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat çeşitliliği arasında
istatistiki açıdan anlamlı ilişkiler yakalanmıştır. Sonuç olarak bu bulgular,
Türkiye’nin uzun dönem ekonomik büyümesi üzerinde imalat sanayi ağırlıklı
bir ihracat yapısı ile ihracatta yüksek ürün çeşitliliğinin önemi üzerine vurgu
yapmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat Çeşitliliği, Ekonomik Büyüme, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Zaman Serisi Analizleri

Kaynakça

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