ENFLASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞ-BÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2007, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 287 - 301, 18.02.2010

Sevda Yapraklı

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, iktisat literatürünün önemli tartışma konularından birini
oluşturan enflasyon ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, Türkiye açısından
belirlenmeye çalışılmaktadır. 1987:1-2007:1 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmada,
GSYİH büyüme oranı, tüketici fiyatları endeksi (TÜFE) ve üretici fiyatları
endeksi (ÜFE)’nden hareketle hesaplanan enflasyon oranı değişkenleri
kullanılmıştır. Enflasyon oranları ile ekonomik büyüme oranı arasındaki ilişkiler,
çok değişkenli eş-bütünleşme analizi ve hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger
nedensellik testleri kullanılarak ekonometrik açıdan analiz edilmektedir. Analiz
sonuçlarına göre, uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme enflasyondan negatif olarak
etkilenmektedir. Hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger nedensellik testleri ise,
enflasyondan ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi
olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Enflasyon, ekonomik büyüme, eş-bütünleşme analizi, zayıf dışsallık testi, hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger nedensellik testi

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