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ENFLASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞ-BÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2007, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 287 - 301, 18.02.2010

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, iktisat literatürünün önemli tartışma konularından birini
oluşturan enflasyon ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, Türkiye açısından
belirlenmeye çalışılmaktadır. 1987:1-2007:1 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmada,
GSYİH büyüme oranı, tüketici fiyatları endeksi (TÜFE) ve üretici fiyatları
endeksi (ÜFE)’nden hareketle hesaplanan enflasyon oranı değişkenleri
kullanılmıştır. Enflasyon oranları ile ekonomik büyüme oranı arasındaki ilişkiler,
çok değişkenli eş-bütünleşme analizi ve hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger
nedensellik testleri kullanılarak ekonometrik açıdan analiz edilmektedir. Analiz
sonuçlarına göre, uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme enflasyondan negatif olarak
etkilenmektedir. Hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger nedensellik testleri ise,
enflasyondan ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi
olduğunu göstermektedir.

References

  • Alexander, W.R.J. (1997) “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence From A Growth Equation”, Applied Economics, 29, ss.233-238.
  • Apergis, N. (2005) “Inflation Uncertainty and Growth: Evidence From Panel Data”, Australian Economic Papers, 44(2), ss.186-197.
  • Artan, S. (2006) “Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Enflasyon ve Büyüme: Yatay-Kesit ve Panel Veri Analizi”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, Yıl: 21, Sayı: 239, ss.108-124.
  • Benhabib, J. ve Spiegel, M.M. (2006) “Moderate Inflation and the Deflation- Depression Link”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, No: 32, ss.1-20, http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2006/wp06-32bk.pdf (29.01.2007).
  • Berber, M. ve Artan, S. (2004) “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Teori-Literatür ve Uygulama”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18(3-4), ss.103-117.
  • Bhatia, R. (1960) “Inflation, Deflation and Economic Development”, IMF Staff Papers, 8(1), ss.101-114.
  • Black D.C., Dowd, M.R. ve Keith, K. (2001) “The Inflation/Growth Relationship: Evidence From State Panel Data”, Applied Economics Letters, 8(2), ss.771-774.
  • Bolton, D. ve Alexander, W.R.J. (2001) “The Differing Consequences of Low and High Rates of Inflation”, Applied Economics Letters, 8, ss.411-414.
  • Bruno, M. ve Easterly, W. (1998) “Inflation Crises and Long-run Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(1), ss.3-26.
  • Bullard, J. ve Keating, J.W. (1995) “The Long-run Relationship between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 36(3), ss.477-496.
  • Caporin M. ve Maria, C.D. (2002) “Inflation and Growth: Some Panel Data Evidence”, GRETA Working Papers, No: 02/09, ss.1-29.
  • Chang, G.H. ve Black, D.C. (2002) “Nonlinearity of Inflation-Growth Relationship and the Optimal Inflation Rate, University of Toledo, ss.1- 27.
  • Charemza, W.W. ve Deadman, D.F. (1993), New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Aldershot, Hanst: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Cambridge.
  • Chowdhury, A. (2002) “Does Inflation Affect Economic Growth? The Relevance of The Debate for Indonesia”, Journal of Asia Pacific Economy, 7(1), ss.20-34.
  • De Gregorio, J. (1993) “Inflation, Taxation and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 31(3), ss.271-298.
  • Ekanayake, E.M. (1999) “Export and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error Correction Models”, Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), ss.43-56.
  • Ericsson, N.R., Irons, J.S. ve Tryon, R.W. (2001) “Output and Inflation in the Long Run”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), ss.241-253.
  • Faria, J.R. ve Carneiro, F.G. (2001) “Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?”, Journal of Applied Economics, 16(1), ss.89-150.
  • Fischer, S. (1983) “Inflation and Growth, Cuadernos de Economia, 20(61), ss.267-278.
  • _______ (1993) “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), ss.485-511.
  • Ghosh, A. ve Phillips S. (1998) “Inflation, Disinflation and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, No: 98/68, ss.1-44.
  • Grier, K.B. ve Tullock, G. (1989) “An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth, 1951-1980”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(2), ss.259-276.
  • Grimes, A. (1991) “The Effects of Inflation on Growth: Some International Evidence”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127, ss.631-644.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (1999), Temel Ekonometri, (Çev. Ü. Şenesen ve G.G. Şenesen), Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Gylfason, T. ve Herbertsson, T.T. (2001) “Does Inflation Matter for Growth?”, Japan and the World Economy, 13(4), ss.405-428.
  • Hineline D.R. (2004) “Re-Examining the Robustness of Inflation and Growth”, Department of Economics Paper, Miami University, ss.1-32.
  • Hodge, D. (2006) “Inflation and Growth in South Africa”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(2), ss.163-180.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, ss.169-210.
  • Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, UK.
  • Johnson, H.G. (1967), “Is Inflation a Retarding Factor in Economic Growth?”, D. Krivine (der.), Fiscal and Monetary Problems in Developing States, Praeger, ss.121-137.
  • Judson, R. ve Orphanides, O. (1999) “Inflation, Volatility, and Growth”, International Finance, 2(1), ss.117-138.
  • Karaca, O. (2003) “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Büyüme İlişkisi: Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4(2), ss.247-255.
  • Karras, G. (1993) “Money, Inflation, and Output Growth: Does the Aggregate Supply-Aggregate Demand Model Explain The International Evidence?”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 129(4), ss.662-674.
  • Kim, S.H. ve Willet, T.D. (2000) “Is The Negative Correlation Between Inflation and Growth Real?: An Analysis of the Effects of the Oil Supply Shocks”, Applied Economics Letters, 7(3), ss.141-147.
  • Kormendi, R.C. ve Meguire, P.G. (1985) “Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(2), ss.141-163.
  • Mallik, G. ve Chowdhury, A. (2001) “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from four South Asian Countries”, Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(1), ss.123-135.
  • Motley, B. (1998) “Growth and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 1, ss.15-28.
  • Nell, K.S. (2000) “Is Low Inflation a Precondition for Faster Growth? The Case of South Africa”, Studies in Economics 0011, Department of Economics, University of Kent, ss.1-33, http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics, (29.01.2007).
  • Pyndick, R. ve Solimano, A. (1993) “Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment”, NBER Macroeoconomics Annual, ss.259-303.
  • Rapach, D. (2003) “International Evidence on the Long-Run Impact of Inflation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(1), ss.23-48.
  • Sarel, M. (1996) “Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, 43(1), ss.199-215.
  • Smyth, D.J. (1992) “Inflation and the Growth Rate in the United States Naturel Output”, Applied Economics, 24, ss.567-570.
  • Thirlwall, A.P. ve Barton, C.A. (1971) “Inflation and Growth: The International Evidence”, Banco Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 98, ss.263-275.
  • Tun Wai, U. (1959) “The Relation Between Inflation and Economic Development: A Statistical Inductive”, IMF Staff Papers, 7, ss.202-209.
  • Vaona, A. (2006) “Nonparametric and Semi-parametric Evidence on the Long- Run Effects of Inflation on Growth”, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Working Paper No. 1286, ss.1-9.
Year 2007, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 287 - 301, 18.02.2010

Abstract

References

  • Alexander, W.R.J. (1997) “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence From A Growth Equation”, Applied Economics, 29, ss.233-238.
  • Apergis, N. (2005) “Inflation Uncertainty and Growth: Evidence From Panel Data”, Australian Economic Papers, 44(2), ss.186-197.
  • Artan, S. (2006) “Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Enflasyon ve Büyüme: Yatay-Kesit ve Panel Veri Analizi”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, Yıl: 21, Sayı: 239, ss.108-124.
  • Benhabib, J. ve Spiegel, M.M. (2006) “Moderate Inflation and the Deflation- Depression Link”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, No: 32, ss.1-20, http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2006/wp06-32bk.pdf (29.01.2007).
  • Berber, M. ve Artan, S. (2004) “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Teori-Literatür ve Uygulama”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18(3-4), ss.103-117.
  • Bhatia, R. (1960) “Inflation, Deflation and Economic Development”, IMF Staff Papers, 8(1), ss.101-114.
  • Black D.C., Dowd, M.R. ve Keith, K. (2001) “The Inflation/Growth Relationship: Evidence From State Panel Data”, Applied Economics Letters, 8(2), ss.771-774.
  • Bolton, D. ve Alexander, W.R.J. (2001) “The Differing Consequences of Low and High Rates of Inflation”, Applied Economics Letters, 8, ss.411-414.
  • Bruno, M. ve Easterly, W. (1998) “Inflation Crises and Long-run Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(1), ss.3-26.
  • Bullard, J. ve Keating, J.W. (1995) “The Long-run Relationship between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 36(3), ss.477-496.
  • Caporin M. ve Maria, C.D. (2002) “Inflation and Growth: Some Panel Data Evidence”, GRETA Working Papers, No: 02/09, ss.1-29.
  • Chang, G.H. ve Black, D.C. (2002) “Nonlinearity of Inflation-Growth Relationship and the Optimal Inflation Rate, University of Toledo, ss.1- 27.
  • Charemza, W.W. ve Deadman, D.F. (1993), New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Aldershot, Hanst: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Cambridge.
  • Chowdhury, A. (2002) “Does Inflation Affect Economic Growth? The Relevance of The Debate for Indonesia”, Journal of Asia Pacific Economy, 7(1), ss.20-34.
  • De Gregorio, J. (1993) “Inflation, Taxation and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 31(3), ss.271-298.
  • Ekanayake, E.M. (1999) “Export and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error Correction Models”, Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), ss.43-56.
  • Ericsson, N.R., Irons, J.S. ve Tryon, R.W. (2001) “Output and Inflation in the Long Run”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), ss.241-253.
  • Faria, J.R. ve Carneiro, F.G. (2001) “Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?”, Journal of Applied Economics, 16(1), ss.89-150.
  • Fischer, S. (1983) “Inflation and Growth, Cuadernos de Economia, 20(61), ss.267-278.
  • _______ (1993) “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), ss.485-511.
  • Ghosh, A. ve Phillips S. (1998) “Inflation, Disinflation and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, No: 98/68, ss.1-44.
  • Grier, K.B. ve Tullock, G. (1989) “An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth, 1951-1980”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(2), ss.259-276.
  • Grimes, A. (1991) “The Effects of Inflation on Growth: Some International Evidence”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127, ss.631-644.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (1999), Temel Ekonometri, (Çev. Ü. Şenesen ve G.G. Şenesen), Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Gylfason, T. ve Herbertsson, T.T. (2001) “Does Inflation Matter for Growth?”, Japan and the World Economy, 13(4), ss.405-428.
  • Hineline D.R. (2004) “Re-Examining the Robustness of Inflation and Growth”, Department of Economics Paper, Miami University, ss.1-32.
  • Hodge, D. (2006) “Inflation and Growth in South Africa”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(2), ss.163-180.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, ss.169-210.
  • Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, UK.
  • Johnson, H.G. (1967), “Is Inflation a Retarding Factor in Economic Growth?”, D. Krivine (der.), Fiscal and Monetary Problems in Developing States, Praeger, ss.121-137.
  • Judson, R. ve Orphanides, O. (1999) “Inflation, Volatility, and Growth”, International Finance, 2(1), ss.117-138.
  • Karaca, O. (2003) “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Büyüme İlişkisi: Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4(2), ss.247-255.
  • Karras, G. (1993) “Money, Inflation, and Output Growth: Does the Aggregate Supply-Aggregate Demand Model Explain The International Evidence?”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 129(4), ss.662-674.
  • Kim, S.H. ve Willet, T.D. (2000) “Is The Negative Correlation Between Inflation and Growth Real?: An Analysis of the Effects of the Oil Supply Shocks”, Applied Economics Letters, 7(3), ss.141-147.
  • Kormendi, R.C. ve Meguire, P.G. (1985) “Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(2), ss.141-163.
  • Mallik, G. ve Chowdhury, A. (2001) “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from four South Asian Countries”, Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(1), ss.123-135.
  • Motley, B. (1998) “Growth and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 1, ss.15-28.
  • Nell, K.S. (2000) “Is Low Inflation a Precondition for Faster Growth? The Case of South Africa”, Studies in Economics 0011, Department of Economics, University of Kent, ss.1-33, http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics, (29.01.2007).
  • Pyndick, R. ve Solimano, A. (1993) “Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment”, NBER Macroeoconomics Annual, ss.259-303.
  • Rapach, D. (2003) “International Evidence on the Long-Run Impact of Inflation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(1), ss.23-48.
  • Sarel, M. (1996) “Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, 43(1), ss.199-215.
  • Smyth, D.J. (1992) “Inflation and the Growth Rate in the United States Naturel Output”, Applied Economics, 24, ss.567-570.
  • Thirlwall, A.P. ve Barton, C.A. (1971) “Inflation and Growth: The International Evidence”, Banco Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 98, ss.263-275.
  • Tun Wai, U. (1959) “The Relation Between Inflation and Economic Development: A Statistical Inductive”, IMF Staff Papers, 7, ss.202-209.
  • Vaona, A. (2006) “Nonparametric and Semi-parametric Evidence on the Long- Run Effects of Inflation on Growth”, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Working Paper No. 1286, ss.1-9.
There are 45 citations in total.

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Sevda Yapraklı This is me

Publication Date February 18, 2010
Published in Issue Year 2007 Volume: 10 Issue: 2

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APA Yapraklı, S. (2010). ENFLASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞ-BÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 10(2), 287-301.

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