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İktisadi Büyüme ile Cari İşlemler Bilançosu Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2011, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 363 - 377, 27.05.2012

Abstract

Küreselleşme süreci ile birlikte ortaya çıkan yüksek büyüme oranları, özellikle
gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ithalat hacmini artırarak cari işlem açıklarına neden olmaktadır.
Artan cari açıklar ise ülke riskini yükselterek büyüme süreci üzerinde olumsuz etkiler
yaratmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, iktisadi büyüme ile cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki
ilişkiler Türkiye ekonomisi 1980–2010 dönemi için ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılarak
analiz edilmiştir. Analizlerde, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve cari işlem dengesi olmak üzere
iki değişken yer almıştır. Değişkenlere ilişkin zaman serisi verileri ADF birim kök testi
ile sınanmış ve değişkenlerin seviye değerlerinde durağan oldukları gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca
bu değişkenlere uygulanan Johansen eşbütünleşme testi sonucunda, söz konusu değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik oldukları sonucuna varılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında nedensellik
ilişkisini belirleyebilmek için Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve gayri safi yurtiçi
hasıladan cari işlemler dengesine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur.

References

  • Aristovnik, A. (2007). “Short and Medium Term Determinants of Current Account Balances in Middle East and North Africa Countries”. MPRA, No: 1974, 1-21.
  • Bagnai, A. and Manzocchi, S. (1999). “Current Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals”, Open Economies Review, 10, 143-163.
  • Bitzis, G., Paleologos, J. M. and Papazoglou, C. (2008). “The Determinants of the Greek Current Account Deficit: The EMU Experience”. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 1(1), 105-122.
  • Calderon, C., Chong, A. and Loayza, N. (2000). “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries”. Policy Research Working Paper, No: 2398, 1-37.
  • Carbaugh, R. J. (2009). International Economics. 12th Edition. USA: Cengage Learning.
  • Charemza, W.W. and Deadman, D.F.(1993). New Directions in Econometric Practice. UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Chinn, M. D. and Prasad, E. S. (2000). “Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration”. IMF Working Paper, No: 46, 1-39.
  • Czech, B. (2000). “Economic Growth As the Limiting Factor for Wildlife Conservation”. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 28(1), 4-15.
  • Debelle, G. and Faruqee, H. (1996). “What Determines the Current Account? A CrossSectional and Panel Approach”. IMF Working Paper, No: 58, 1-35.
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Series with a Unit Root”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
  • Eken, A. (1990). “Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerine Model Çalışması”. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Araştırma Genel Müdürlüğü Tartışma Tebliği, No: 9020, 73-90.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
  • Erbaykal, E. (2007). “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Döviz Kuru Cari Açık Üzerinde Etkili Midir? Bir Nedensellik Analizi”. Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(6), 81-88.
  • Erdoğan, S. ve Bozkurt, H. (2009). “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: MGARCH Modelleri İle Bir İnceleme”. Maliye Finans Yazıları, 23(84), 135-172.
  • Freund, C. and Warnock, F. (2005). “Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall?”. NBER Working Paper, No: 11823, 1-46.
  • Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. (1974). “Spurious in Econometrics”. Journal of Economics, 2, 111-120.
  • Herrmann, S. and Jochem, A. (2005). “Determinants of Current Account Developments in the Central and East European EU Member States – Consequences for the Enlargement of the Euro Area”. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, No: 32, 1-43.
  • Herwartz, H. and Siedenburg, F. (2007). “Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective”. Review of World Economics, 143(2), 349-374.
  • Kandil, M. and Greene, J. (2002). “The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the US Balance of Payments”. IMF Working Paper, No: 45, 1-43.
  • Kennedy, P. (2006). Ekonometri Kılavuzu. (Çev: Muzaffer Sarımeşeli ve Şenay Açıkgöz). 5. Baskı. Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Khan, M. S. and Knight, M. D. (1983). “Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s: An Empirical Analysis”. IMF Staff Papers, 30(4), 819-842.
  • Krugman, P. (1990). Rethinking International Trade. USA: MIT Press.
  • Kutlar, A. (2007). Ekonometriye Giriş. 1. Baskı. Ankara: Nobel Yayınları.
  • Kuznets, S. (1973). “Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections”. The American Economic Review, 63(3), 247-258.
  • Lebe, F., Kayhan, S., Adıgüzel, U. ve Yiğit, B. (2008). “The Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Economic Growth and Exchange Rate on Current Account Deficit: Romania and Turkey Samples”. Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods, 4(1), 69-81.
  • MacKinnon, J. (1991). “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests”, R.F. Engle and C.W.J.
  • Granger (Ed.). Long-Run Economic Relationship: Readings in Cointegration., (ss. 267- 276). New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Madura, J. (2008). International Financial Management. 9th Edition. USA: Thomson Learning Publishing. Malik, S., Chaudhry, I. S., Sheikh, M. R. and Farooqi, F. S. (2010).
  • “Tourism, Economic Growth and Current Account Deficit in Pakistan: Evidence from Co-Integration and Causal Analysis”. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 22, 21-31.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. and Razin, A. (1998). “Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis”. European Economic Review, 42, 897-908.
  • Moreno-Brid, J. C. (1999). “Mexico’s Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A Cointegration Analysis”. International Review of Applied Economics, 13(2), 149-159.
  • Morsy, H. (2009). “Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting Countries”. IMF Working Paper, No: 28, 1-13.
  • Pacheco-Lopez, P. and Thirlwall, A. P. (2007). “Trade Liberalisation and the Trade-Off Between Growth and the Balance of Payments in Latin America”. Intrnational Review of Applied Economics, 21(4), 469-490.
  • Parikh, A. and Stirbu, C. (2004). “Relationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Trade Balance: An Econometric Investigation”. HWWA Discussion Paper, No: 282, 1-50.
  • Roubini, N. and Wachtel, P. (1998). “Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies”, NBER Working Paper, No: 6468, 1-68.
  • Sekmen, F. ve Çalışır, M. (2011). “Is There a Trade-Off Between Current Account Deficits and Economic Growth? The Case of Turkey”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 62, 166-172.
  • Tarı, R. (2005). Ekonometri. 3. Baskı. No: 172. İstanbul: Kocaeli Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Tarı, R. ve Kumcu, F. S. (2005). “Türkiye’de İstikrarsız Büyümenin Analizi (1983 – 2003 Dönemi)”. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(1), 156-179.
  • Telatar, O. M. ve Terzi, H. (2009). “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Cari İşlemler Dengesi İlişkisi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 23(2), 119- 134.
  • Turner, P. (2009). “Testing for Cointegration Using the JohansenApproach:Are We Using the Correct Critical Values?”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, 825-831.
  • Yamak, N. ve Küçükkale, Y. (1997). “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”. İktisat İşletme Finans, 12(131), 5-14.
Year 2011, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 363 - 377, 27.05.2012

Abstract

References

  • Aristovnik, A. (2007). “Short and Medium Term Determinants of Current Account Balances in Middle East and North Africa Countries”. MPRA, No: 1974, 1-21.
  • Bagnai, A. and Manzocchi, S. (1999). “Current Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals”, Open Economies Review, 10, 143-163.
  • Bitzis, G., Paleologos, J. M. and Papazoglou, C. (2008). “The Determinants of the Greek Current Account Deficit: The EMU Experience”. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 1(1), 105-122.
  • Calderon, C., Chong, A. and Loayza, N. (2000). “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries”. Policy Research Working Paper, No: 2398, 1-37.
  • Carbaugh, R. J. (2009). International Economics. 12th Edition. USA: Cengage Learning.
  • Charemza, W.W. and Deadman, D.F.(1993). New Directions in Econometric Practice. UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Chinn, M. D. and Prasad, E. S. (2000). “Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration”. IMF Working Paper, No: 46, 1-39.
  • Czech, B. (2000). “Economic Growth As the Limiting Factor for Wildlife Conservation”. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 28(1), 4-15.
  • Debelle, G. and Faruqee, H. (1996). “What Determines the Current Account? A CrossSectional and Panel Approach”. IMF Working Paper, No: 58, 1-35.
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Series with a Unit Root”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
  • Eken, A. (1990). “Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerine Model Çalışması”. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Araştırma Genel Müdürlüğü Tartışma Tebliği, No: 9020, 73-90.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
  • Erbaykal, E. (2007). “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Döviz Kuru Cari Açık Üzerinde Etkili Midir? Bir Nedensellik Analizi”. Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(6), 81-88.
  • Erdoğan, S. ve Bozkurt, H. (2009). “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: MGARCH Modelleri İle Bir İnceleme”. Maliye Finans Yazıları, 23(84), 135-172.
  • Freund, C. and Warnock, F. (2005). “Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall?”. NBER Working Paper, No: 11823, 1-46.
  • Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. (1974). “Spurious in Econometrics”. Journal of Economics, 2, 111-120.
  • Herrmann, S. and Jochem, A. (2005). “Determinants of Current Account Developments in the Central and East European EU Member States – Consequences for the Enlargement of the Euro Area”. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, No: 32, 1-43.
  • Herwartz, H. and Siedenburg, F. (2007). “Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective”. Review of World Economics, 143(2), 349-374.
  • Kandil, M. and Greene, J. (2002). “The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the US Balance of Payments”. IMF Working Paper, No: 45, 1-43.
  • Kennedy, P. (2006). Ekonometri Kılavuzu. (Çev: Muzaffer Sarımeşeli ve Şenay Açıkgöz). 5. Baskı. Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Khan, M. S. and Knight, M. D. (1983). “Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s: An Empirical Analysis”. IMF Staff Papers, 30(4), 819-842.
  • Krugman, P. (1990). Rethinking International Trade. USA: MIT Press.
  • Kutlar, A. (2007). Ekonometriye Giriş. 1. Baskı. Ankara: Nobel Yayınları.
  • Kuznets, S. (1973). “Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections”. The American Economic Review, 63(3), 247-258.
  • Lebe, F., Kayhan, S., Adıgüzel, U. ve Yiğit, B. (2008). “The Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Economic Growth and Exchange Rate on Current Account Deficit: Romania and Turkey Samples”. Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods, 4(1), 69-81.
  • MacKinnon, J. (1991). “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests”, R.F. Engle and C.W.J.
  • Granger (Ed.). Long-Run Economic Relationship: Readings in Cointegration., (ss. 267- 276). New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Madura, J. (2008). International Financial Management. 9th Edition. USA: Thomson Learning Publishing. Malik, S., Chaudhry, I. S., Sheikh, M. R. and Farooqi, F. S. (2010).
  • “Tourism, Economic Growth and Current Account Deficit in Pakistan: Evidence from Co-Integration and Causal Analysis”. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 22, 21-31.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. and Razin, A. (1998). “Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis”. European Economic Review, 42, 897-908.
  • Moreno-Brid, J. C. (1999). “Mexico’s Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A Cointegration Analysis”. International Review of Applied Economics, 13(2), 149-159.
  • Morsy, H. (2009). “Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting Countries”. IMF Working Paper, No: 28, 1-13.
  • Pacheco-Lopez, P. and Thirlwall, A. P. (2007). “Trade Liberalisation and the Trade-Off Between Growth and the Balance of Payments in Latin America”. Intrnational Review of Applied Economics, 21(4), 469-490.
  • Parikh, A. and Stirbu, C. (2004). “Relationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Trade Balance: An Econometric Investigation”. HWWA Discussion Paper, No: 282, 1-50.
  • Roubini, N. and Wachtel, P. (1998). “Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies”, NBER Working Paper, No: 6468, 1-68.
  • Sekmen, F. ve Çalışır, M. (2011). “Is There a Trade-Off Between Current Account Deficits and Economic Growth? The Case of Turkey”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 62, 166-172.
  • Tarı, R. (2005). Ekonometri. 3. Baskı. No: 172. İstanbul: Kocaeli Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Tarı, R. ve Kumcu, F. S. (2005). “Türkiye’de İstikrarsız Büyümenin Analizi (1983 – 2003 Dönemi)”. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(1), 156-179.
  • Telatar, O. M. ve Terzi, H. (2009). “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Cari İşlemler Dengesi İlişkisi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 23(2), 119- 134.
  • Turner, P. (2009). “Testing for Cointegration Using the JohansenApproach:Are We Using the Correct Critical Values?”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, 825-831.
  • Yamak, N. ve Küçükkale, Y. (1997). “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”. İktisat İşletme Finans, 12(131), 5-14.
There are 42 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language tr;en
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Ömer Yılmaz This is me

Merter Akıncı This is me

Publication Date May 27, 2012
Published in Issue Year 2011 Volume: 15 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Yılmaz, Ö., & Akıncı, M. (2012). İktisadi Büyüme ile Cari İşlemler Bilançosu Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15(2), 363-377.

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