TÜRKİYE VE KUZEYDOĞU ANADOLU TARIMINDA BELİRSİZLİK VE EKONOMİK ETKİLERİ

Year 1975, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, - , 20.12.2010

Ergün Kip

Abstract

ÖZET
Bu, araştırmada, Türkiye ve özelliHe Kuzeydoğu Anadolu
tarımlarının bitkisel üretim kesimlerini temsilen ele alman
muhtelif ürünlerin verim, fiyat ve gayrisafi hasıla1amufu yıldan
yıla görülen şiddetli dalgala:nmalardan ileri gelen belirsiz·
lik ve bu belirsizliğin iktisadi tesirleri incelenmektedir,.
Elde edilen bulgulardan, gerek Türkiye ve gerekse Kuzeydoğu
Anadolu düzeyinde yetiştirilen belli başlı ürünlerin
verim, fiyat vıe dolayısiyle gayri safı hasılalarının yıldan yıla
şiddetli dalgalanmalar gösterdiği anlaşılmaktadır. Bu ise,
çiftçiyi önemli bir teknik ve ekonomik beMrsizlikle karşı karşıya
bırakmaktadır. Bu durumun bir sonucu olarak; tarım·
~al üretimin rasyonel bir şekilde planlanması güçleşmekte,
kaynaklar etkin olmıyan bileşim 'Ve miktarlarda kullanılmakta,
işgücü sermaye yerine ikame ediımek~e ve uzun vadeli yatırımlardan kaçımlmaktadır.

SUMMARY: UNCERTAINTY AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
ON THE AGRICULTURE OF TURKEY AND NORTH EAST REGION
Decision-making withDut complete
knowledge is a problem of
major significance in the _agricultural
economy. Because of lincertainty,
productian planning is
frequently imperfect. This results
in lowt:r incomes for farm people
and a mis-alloca~ion of produe.üve
resources.
This study estimates the
degree of variabi1ity in yields,
prices and gross incomes associated
with varioliS types of crop pm·
duction in Turkeyand specifically
in the Northeastern Region and
investigates the relationships between
stability and level of farm
income from particular cropping
systems. Knowledge of these relationships
is prerequisite to rational
choices among crops or combinations
of crops to .produce.
For example, farmers must decide
whether to pioduce: a) high income
crops with a correspondingly
high risk of large losses, b)
lower risk crops with tower aver-
22'
age iDeome, c) a combination of
high and low risk crops.
In line with these ge;1eral
goals: the specific objectives of
this studyare: 1) to estimate
absolute and relative variability
of product priees, yields, and
gross income of major crops, 2)
to compare various 'erop diversi·
fication systems from the stand.
point of variability and level of
income in the Northeastern Region,
3) to investigate the effects
of uncertainty upon allacative
efficiency in agriculture.
Variability measures of indi·
vidual crops were derived exdusivelyfrom
the yield and prke
series compiIed by the State hıstitute
of Statics and the gross income
computed here as unit prke
X yield per hectare for the period
of 1948·1970 for Turkeyand 19511970
for the Northeastern ~egion.
Variability, in erop produetion
stems form the fact that
eornputed associated with the
individual farrner's view of un.
predictable or «randam» variation.
In the first, it is assamed that
in the eyes of the farmer any deviation
from the long-rurn. mean is
a randam or unpredictable event
and the original series used to
compute the «coefficient of variation'}
by the fol1owing equation:
yields, priees and ineames are
influeneed by many variables in
an unpredictable or «randam»
manner, From the standpoint of
the individual farmer, what portion
of the total variation in yield
priee and income is unpredietable
or «random» aııd what portian
predietable? In this study, two
types of variabiIity measures are
Coeffident of variation
----- ...; variance
1948-70 or 1951-70 mean
X 100
eaeh series and then deviations
from this trend line is used to
eompute the «eoefficient of random
variation» by the fol1owing
equation:
In the second, it is assumed that
farmers reeognize certain longmn
physİcal and eeonomie trends
and view the «randoID,) element
as a deviatimı from these trends.
Thus, a trend Line is fitted to
. . ... Standard deviation of regression
Coeffıcıent o randoın yanatıon ='1948-70 or 1951-70 mean X 100
The results obtained on the
oasis of the variability measures,
cpmputed as described ab'ove, are
suınmarized in Table ı. Thus :
A - Yield uncertainty: Accarding
to the coeffieients of variation
and random variation, there
is a great deal of uneertainty in
yields of principal crops of both
Turkeyand the speeifıc region of
Northeast, The ranking eorresponds
c10sely with eommon kn-owledge
cemeerning relative yield
variabiIity of crops. ,Yield variability
of irrigated crops usual1y is
less than for dryland farmed
crops.
B -- Priee uncertainty: Coefficients
of variation on priees are
also' high in almost all crops. Thus,
farmers who do not aware of the,
long-run price trends are faeed
with a high deg~ee of priee uneertainty,
However, eoefficients of
random variation are mueh lower
than coeffieients of variation.
c - Gross income uneertainty:
Gross income variability
results fröm the interaction of
yield and price. Sİnee yİeId variability
is higher than priee variabi·"
lity for almost aU crops, the most
iınportant faetor eontribııting to
gross income variability of crops
is the variahility of yields.
Because of unce~tainty, praduction
planning is frequently
imperfect. in order to lessen incôme
variabiIity, farmers apply
crop diversification, liquidity. and
flexibility. This results in a mis~
allocation of productive resources.
Some means of lessening uncertainty
and its economic effects
are: a) credit policy, b) decreas~
ing the dependanceof farming on
natural conditions, c) agricultural
insurance, and d) forward pric- .
ing.

Keywords

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