Hamas’ın 7 Ekim 2023 İsrail Saldırısı Sonrası “Direniş Ekseni”nin Krizi

Abstract

Bu makale, Hamas’ın İsrail’e yönelik gerçekleştirdiği 7 Ekim 2023 saldırılarının ardından “direniş ekseni”nin nasıl bir durumda olduğunu incelemektedir. Çalışmanın temel amacı, 7 Ekim 2023 sonrasında yaşanan askeri ve siyasi gelişmelerin “direniş ekseni”nin varlığını ve işlevselliğini nasıl etkilediğini ve İran’ın bu süreçte nasıl bir politika izlediğini ortaya koymaktır. Mevcut literatürde “direniş ekseni” genellikle caydırıcılık, güç dengesi ve stratejik derinlik gibi kavramlarla açıklanırken, bu çalışma bu tür açıklamaların “direniş ekseni”nin temellerini ve yansımalarını kavramak için yetersiz olduğunu savunmaktadır. Makale, “direniş ekseni”nin stratejik ya da rasyonel bir politika olmaktan ziyade, İran İslam Cumhuriyeti'nin devrim sonrası kimliği, anti-Amerikancılığı ve anti-Siyonizm’ine yerleşik, katı bir rutin politika uygulaması olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Ancak çalışmada gösterildiği üzere İran’ın “direniş ekseni”ni katı bir rutin olarak devam ettirmesi kazançlarının ötesinde büyük maliyetlere ve kayıplara yol açmıştır. Nitekim 7 Ekim 2023 sonrası dönemde İran'ın maddi ve ideolojik taahhütleri ile maddi kapasitesi arasında derin bir uyumsuzluk ortaya çıkmıştır. Hamas ve Hizbullah'ın ağır kayıpları, Esad rejiminin çöküşü ve İran’ın İsrail ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin askeri baskısına giderek daha fazla maruz kalması, “direniş ekseni”nin caydırıcılık ve stratejik derinlik aracı olarak etkinlik sağlayamadığını göstermiştir. Bulgular, “direniş ekseni”nin tamamen ortadan kalkmasa bile 7 Ekim 2023 sonrasında önemli ölçüde yıprandığını ve ağır kayıplar verdiğini, İran’ın ise “direniş ekseni” politikasına katı bağlılığı yüzünden maliyetli bir çatışma sürecinin içerisine sürüklendiğini göstermektedir. Öte yandan İran ve müttefikleri “direniş paradigması”na verdikleri ideolojik, kimliksel ve jeopolitik önemden dolayı “direniş ekseni”ni inatçı bir şekilde sürdürmeye devam etmektedir.

Keywords

• Direniş Ekseni
• Hamas
• İran
• İsrail
• 7 Ekim 2023 Saldırıları

The Crisis of the “Axis of Resistance” Following Hamas’ October 7, 2023 Attack on Israel

Abstract

This article examines the status of the “axis of resistance” following Hamas’ attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023. The main objective of this study is to reveal how the military and political developments that took place after October 7, 2023 affected the existence and functionality of the “axis of resistance” and what policy Iran pursued during this process.Although existing literature often interprets the “axis of resistance” using concepts such as deterrence, balance of power, and strategic depth, these frameworks are insufficient for capturing its foundations. The study contends that the “axis of resistance” constitutes a routinized foreign policy practice rooted in the Iran Islamic Republic’s post-revolutionary identity, anti-Americanism, and anti-Zionism, rather than a purely strategic or rational policy. The analysis demonstrates that Iran’s persistent adherence to this rigid routine now incurs costs that surpass its benefits. After October 7, 2023, a pronounced gap emerged between Iran’s material and ideological commitments and its material capabilities. The significant losses suffered by Hamas and Hezbollah, the collapse of the Assad regime, and Iran’s heightened vulnerability to military pressure from Israel and the United States of America indicate that the “axis of resistance” can no longer serve effectively as a tool of deterrence or strategic depth. The findings reveal that, while the “axis of resistance” has not entirely disappeared, it has been substantially weakened since October 7, 2023, and Iran is now ensnared in a costly conflict dynamic due to its inflexible commitment to this policy. Nonetheless, Iran and its allies persist in upholding the “axis of resistance” primarily because of the ideological, identity based and geopolitical importance they attribute to the resistance paradigm.

Keywords

• Axis of Resistance
• Hamas
• Iran
• Israel
• October 7 2023 Attacks

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