Türkiye Elektrik Piyasasında Merit Sınıflandırma Etkisinin Test Edilmesi: Rüzgar Penetrasyonunun Gün Öncesi Elektrik Fiyatlarına Etkisi

Abstract

Son destekleme mekanizmaları sayesinde, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının, özellikle rüzgar enerjisinin, Türkiye elektrik üretimindeki payı önemli ölçüde artmıştır. Artan yenilenebilir penetrasyonunun elektrik fiyatlarını düşürmesi beklenmektedir ve bu merit sınıflandırma etkisi olarak bilinmektedir. Bu makalenin temel amacı Türk elektrik piyasasında merit sınıflandırma etkisinin test edilmesidir. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye gün öncesi elektrik piyasası takas fiyatı ve rüzgar temelli elektrik üretimi 2011 ile 2018 arası dönemi verilerini içeren günlük veri seti üzerine dalgacık dönüşümlü parametrik olmayan Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Genel sonuçlar Türkiye elektrik piyasasında rüzgarın merit sınıflandırma etkisini doğrulamaktadır. Ayrıca, eksi yönlü nedenselliğin gücünün farklı alt dönemlerde şiddetli bir şekilde değiştiği de gözlemlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Türkiye elektrik piyasası,rüzgar penetrasyonu,merit sınıflandırma etkisi,CWT Granger nedensellik

Testing Merit-Order Effect in Turkey’s Electricity Market: The Effect of Wind Penetration on Day-Ahead Electricity Prices

Abstract

Due to recent support mechanisms, the share of renewable energy sources, particularly wind, in Turkey’s electricity generation has increased significantly. Increasing renewable penetration is supposed to decrease the electricity prices, which is known as the merit-order effect. Main purpose of this article is to test the existence of merit-order effect in Turkish electricity market. To this end, a nonparametric Granger causality test based on wavelet transformation is applied on a daily data set covering Turkish day-ahead power market clearing prices and electricity generation from wind over the period between 2011 and 2018. The overall results confirm the existence of the merit-order effect of wind in Turkey's electricity market. It is also observed that the strength of the negative causality alters drastically over different sub-periods.

Keywords

• Turkish electricity market,wind penetration,merit-order effect,CWT Granger causality

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