Türkiye Elektrik Piyasasında Merit Sınıflandırma Etkisinin Test Edilmesi: Rüzgar Penetrasyonunun Gün Öncesi Elektrik Fiyatlarına Etkisi

Öz

Son destekleme mekanizmaları sayesinde, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının, özellikle rüzgar enerjisinin, Türkiye elektrik üretimindeki payı önemli ölçüde artmıştır. Artan yenilenebilir penetrasyonunun elektrik fiyatlarını düşürmesi beklenmektedir ve bu merit sınıflandırma etkisi olarak bilinmektedir. Bu makalenin temel amacı Türk elektrik piyasasında merit sınıflandırma etkisinin test edilmesidir. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye gün öncesi elektrik piyasası takas fiyatı ve rüzgar temelli elektrik üretimi 2011 ile 2018 arası dönemi verilerini içeren günlük veri seti üzerine dalgacık dönüşümlü parametrik olmayan Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Genel sonuçlar Türkiye elektrik piyasasında rüzgarın merit sınıflandırma etkisini doğrulamaktadır. Ayrıca, eksi yönlü nedenselliğin gücünün farklı alt dönemlerde şiddetli bir şekilde değiştiği de gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türkiye elektrik piyasası,rüzgar penetrasyonu,merit sınıflandırma etkisi,CWT Granger nedensellik

Testing Merit-Order Effect in Turkey’s Electricity Market: The Effect of Wind Penetration on Day-Ahead Electricity Prices

Öz

Due to recent support mechanisms, the share of renewable energy sources, particularly wind, in Turkey’s electricity generation has increased significantly. Increasing renewable penetration is supposed to decrease the electricity prices, which is known as the merit-order effect. Main purpose of this article is to test the existence of merit-order effect in Turkish electricity market. To this end, a nonparametric Granger causality test based on wavelet transformation is applied on a daily data set covering Turkish day-ahead power market clearing prices and electricity generation from wind over the period between 2011 and 2018. The overall results confirm the existence of the merit-order effect of wind in Turkey's electricity market. It is also observed that the strength of the negative causality alters drastically over different sub-periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turkish electricity market,wind penetration,merit-order effect,CWT Granger causality

Kaynakça

1. Aguirar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. (2014). The continuous wavelet transform: Moving beyond uni‐ and bivariate analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(2), 344-375.
2. Akkemik, K. A. and Oğuz, F. (2011). Regulation, efficiency and equilibrium: A general equilibrium analysis of liberalization in the Turkish electricity market. Energy, 36(5), 3282-3292.
3. Akpinar, E. K. (2006). A statistical investigation of wind energy potential. Energy Sources, Part A, 28(9), 807-820.
4. Alboyaci, B. and Dursun, B. (2008). Electricity restructuring in Turkey and the share of wind energy production. Renewable Energy, 33(11), 2499-2505.
5. Aras, H. (2003). Wind energy status and its assessment in Turkey. Renewable Energy, 28(14), 2213-2220.
6. Asan, G. and Tasaltin, K. (2017). Market efficiency assessment under dual pricing rule for the Turkish wholesale electricity market. Energy Policy, 107, 109-118.
7. Avci-Surucu, E., Aydogan, A. K. and Akgul, D. (2016). Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting. Energy Economics, 54, 77-87.
8. Azofra, D., Jiménez, E., Martínez, E., Blanco, J. and Saenz-Díez, J. C. (2014). Wind power merit-order and feed-in-tariffs effect: a variability analysis of the Spanish electricity market. Energy Conversion and Management, 83, 19-27.

9. Bagdadioglu, N. and Odyakmaz, N. (2009). Turkish electricity reform. Utilities Policy, 17(1), 144-152.
10. Bahçe, S. and Taymaz, E. (2008). The impact of electricity market liberalization in Turkey: “Free consumer” and distributional monopoly cases. Energy Economics, 30(4), 1603-1624.
11. Benli, H. (2013). Potential of renewable energy in electrical energy production and sustainable energy development of Turkey: Performance and policies. Renewable Energy, 50, 33-46.
12. BP (2018). Statistical Review of World Energy, 2018. Available at: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html. Accessed on 24.08.2018.
13. Böckers, V., Giessing, L. and Rösch, J. (2013). The green game changer: An empirical assessment of the effects of wind and solar power on the merit order (No. 104). DICE Discussion Paper.
14. Camadan, E. (2011). Why 2012 will be so important for the Restructured Turkish Electricity Market. The Electricity Journal, 24(10), 70-78.
15. Camadan, E. and Erten, I. E. (2011). An evaluation of the transitional Turkish electricity balancing and settlement market: Lessons for the future. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(2), 1325-1334.
16. Camadan, E. and Kölmek, F. (2013). A critical evaluation of Turkish Electricity Reform. The Electricity Journal, 26(1), 59-70.
17. Çetin, T. (2014). Structural and regulatory reform in Turkey: Lessons form public utilities. Utilities Policy, 31, 94-106.
18. Çetinkaya, M., Başaran, A. A. and Bağdadioğlu, N. (2015). Electricity reform, tariff and household elasticity in Turkey. Utilities Policy, 37, 79-85.
19. Clò, S., Cataldi, A. and Zoppoli, P. (2015). The merit-order effect in the Italian power market: The impact of solar and wind generation on national wholesale electricity prices. Energy Policy, 77, 79-88.
20. Cludius, J., Hermann, H., Matthes, F. C. and Graichen, V. (2014). The merit order effect of wind and photovoltaic electricity generation in Germany 2008–2016: Estimation and distributional implications. Energy Economics, 44, 302-313.
21. Durak, M. and Şen, Z. (2002). Wind power potential in Turkey and Akhisar case study. Renewable Energy, 25(3), 463-472
22. Dursun, B. and Gokcol, C. (2014). Impacts of the renewable energy law on the developments of wind energy in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 40, 318-325.
23. Ediger, V. Ş. and Kentel, E. (1999). Renewable energy potential as an alternative to fossil fuels in Turkey. Energy conversion and management, 40(7), 743-755.
24. Erdogdu, E. (2009). On the wind energy in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13 (6–7):1361-1371
25. Erdogdu, E. (2010). A paper on the unsettled question of Turkish electricity market: Balancing and settlement system (Part I). Applied Energy, 87(1), 251-258.
26. Erdogdu, E. (2011). The impact of power market reforms on electricity price-cost margins and cross-subsidy levels: A cross country panel data analysis. Energy Policy, 39(3), 1080-1092.
27. Ertürk, M. (2012). The evaluation of feed-in tariff regulation of Turkey for onshore wind energy based on the economic analysis. Energy Policy, 45, 359-367.
28. Gozen, M. (2014). Renewable energy support mechanism in Turkey: Financial analysis and recommendations to policymakers. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(2), 274-287.
29. Gökçek, M., Bayülken, A. and Bekdemir, Ş. (2007). Investigation of wind characteristics and wind energy potential in Kirklareli, Turkey. Renewable Energy, 32(10), 1739-1752.
30. Güneği, O. O. (2002). Elektrik Enerjisinde Yeni Dönem. Planlama Dergisi, DPT’nin Kuruluşunun 42. Yılı Özel Sayı, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı, Ankara, 255–262.
31. Hepbasli, A. and Ozgener, O. (2004). A review on the development of wind energy in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 8(3), 257-276.
32. Ilkılıç, C., Aydın, H. and Behçet, R. (2011). The current status of wind energy in Turkey and in the world. Energy policy, 39(2), 961-967.
33. Ilkiliç, C. (2012). Wind energy and assessment of wind energy potential in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(2), 1165-1173.
34. Ilkiliç, C. and Aydin, H. (2015). Wind power potential and usage in the coastal regions of Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 44, 78-86.
35. Kaplan, Y. A. (2015). Overview of wind energy in the world and assessment of current wind energy policies in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 43, 562-568.
36. Karahan, H. and Toptas, M. (2013). The effect of power distribution privatization on electricity prices in Turkey: Has liberalization served the purpose?. Energy Policy, 63, 614-621.
37. Karsli, V. M. and Gecit, C. (2003). An investigation on wind power potential of Nurdaǧı-Gaziantep, Turkey. Renewable Energy, 28(5), 823-830
38. Ketterer, J. C. (2014). The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany. Energy Economics, 44, 270-280.
39. Kyritsis, E., Andersson, J. and Serletis, A. (2017). Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications. Energy Policy, 101, 550-560.
40. Li, X. L., Chang, T., Miller, S. M., Balcilar, M. and Gupta, R. (2015). The co-movement and causality between the US housing and stock markets in the time and frequency domains. International Review of Economics & Finance, 38, 220-233.
41. Melikoglu, M. (2016). The role of renewables and nuclear energy in Turkey׳ s Vision 2023 energy targets: Economic and technical scrutiny. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 62, 1-12.
42. MENR (2009), Electricity energy market and supply security strategy paper. May 18, 2009, No. 2009/11.
43. Nalan, Ç. B., Murat, Ö. and Nuri, Ö. (2009). Renewable energy market conditions and barriers in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13(6-7), 1428-1436.
44. O'Mahoney, A. and Denny, E. (2011). The merit order effect of wind generation on the Irish electricity market. MPRA Paper No. 56043,
45. Oğulata, R. T. (2003). Energy sector and wind energy potential in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 7(6), 469-484.
46. Olayeni (2016). Causality in Continuous Wavelet Transform Without Spectral Matrix Factorization: Theory and Application. Computational Economics, 47 (3), 321-340.
47. Ozcan, M. (2018). The role of renewables in increasing Turkey's self-sufficiency in electrical energy. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82(P3), 2629-2639.
48. Özkıvrak, Ö. (2005). Electricity restructuring in Turkey. Energy Policy, 33(10), 1339-1350.
49. Öztopal, A., Şahin, A. D., Akgün, N. and Şen, Z. (2000). On the regional wind energy potential of Turkey. Energy, 25(2), 189-200.
50. Paraschiv, F., Erni, D. and Pietsch, R. (2014). The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices. Energy Policy, 73, 196-210.
51. Rua, A. (2013). Worldwide synchronization since the nineteenth century: A wavelet based view. Applied Economics Letters, 20(8), 773–776.
52. Sensfuß, F., Ragwitz, M. and Genoese, M. (2008). The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany. Energy Policy, 36(8), 3086-3094.
53. Simsek, H. A. and Simsek, N. (2013). Recent incentives for renewable energy in Turkey. Energy Policy, 63, 521-530.
54. Sirin, S. M. and Gonul, M. S. (2016). Behavioral aspects of regulation: A discussion on switching and demand response in Turkish electricity market. Energy Policy, 97, 591-602.
55. TEIAS (2018). Turkish Electricity Generation and Transmission Statistics. Available at: https://www.teias.gov.tr/tr/turkiye-elektrik-uretim-iletim-istatistikleri. Accessed on 24.08.2018.
56. Tolun, S., Menteş, S., Aslan, Z. and Yükselen, M. A. (1995). The wind energy potential of Gökçeada in the northern Aegean Sea. Renewable Energy, 6(7), 679-685.
57. Tükenmez, M. and Demireli, E. (2012). Renewable energy policy in Turkey with the new legal regulations. Renewable Energy, 39(1), 1-9.
58. Türksoy, F. (1995). Investigation of wind power potential at Bozcaada, Turkey. Renewable Energy, 6(8), 917-923.
59. Ucar, A. and Balo, F. (2009a). Investigation of wind characteristics and assessment of wind-generation potentiality in Uludağ-Bursa, Turkey. Applied Energy, 86(3), 333-339.
60. Ucar, A. and Balo, F. (2009b). Evaluation of wind energy potential and electricity generation at six locations in Turkey. Applied Energy, 86(10), 1864-1872.
61. Ulusoy, A. and Oguz, F. (2007). The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis. Energy Policy, 35(10), 5021-5034.
62. Woo, C. K., Horowitz, I., Moore, J. and Pacheco, A. (2011). The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience. Energy Policy, 39(7), 3939-3944.
63. Yaniktepe, B., Koroglu, T. and Savrun, M. M. (2013a). Investigation of wind characteristics and wind energy potential in Osmaniye, Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 21, 703-711.
64. Yaniktepe, B., Savrun, M. M. and Koroglu, T. (2013b). Current status of wind energy and wind energy policy in Turkey. Energy Conversion and Management, 72, 103-110.
65. Yousefi-Sahzabi, A., Unlu-Yucesoy, E., Sasaki, K., Yuosefi, H., Widiatmojo, A. and Sugai, Y. (2017). Turkish challenges for low-carbon society: Current status, government policies and social acceptance. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 68, 596-608.