Silahlar, Büyüme ve İstikrar: Batı Balkanlar'daki Savunma Harcamalarının Makroekonomik Etkileri ve Türkiye Açısından Önemi

Abstract

Balkan ülkelerinde savunma harcamalarının makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri hem akademik hem de politik düzeyde önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışma, konunun Türkiye'nin bölgesel güvenlik ve ekonomik çıkarlarını nasıl etkilediğini değerlendirmek için ekonometrik yöntemler kullanarak stratejik ve ekonomik etkilerini vurgulamaktadır. Beş Batı Balkan ülkesi olarak kabul edilen Arnavutluk, Bosna-Hersek, Hırvatistan, Kuzey Makedonya ve Sırbistan'da savunma harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, 2007-2024 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Swamy'nin Tesadüfi Katsayılar Modeli ve Görünüşte İlişkisiz Regresyon (SUR) modelleri kullanılarak yapılan tahminler sonucunda, savunma harcamalarının Arnavutluk, Bosna-Hersek ve Kuzey Makedonya'da ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumsuz, Hırvatistan ve Sırbistan'da ise olumlu bir etkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Keywords

• Savunma harcamaları
• Ekonomik büyüme
• Swamy’nin Tesadüfi Katsayılar Modeli
• SUR modeller

Guns, Growth, and Stability: Macroeconomic Impacts of Defense Spending in the Western Balkans and Their Relevance for Türkiye

Abstract

The effects of defense spending on macroeconomic indicators in Balkan countries are significant at both academic and political levels. This study uses econometric methods to evaluate how the issue affects Turkiye's regional security and economic interests, highlighting its strategic and economic implications. The relationship between defense spending and economic growth in five Western Balkan countries—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, North Macedonia, and Serbia—was examined using data from 2007 to 2024. Estimates made using Swamy's Random Coefficients Model and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models concluded that defense spending has a negative effect on economic gro

Keywords

• Defense spending
• Economic growth
• Swamy’s Random Coefficient Model
• SUR models

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