Silahlar, Büyüme ve İstikrar: Batı Balkanlar'daki Savunma Harcamalarının Makroekonomik Etkileri ve Türkiye Açısından Önemi

Öz

Balkan ülkelerinde savunma harcamalarının makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri hem akademik hem de politik düzeyde önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışma, konunun Türkiye'nin bölgesel güvenlik ve ekonomik çıkarlarını nasıl etkilediğini değerlendirmek için ekonometrik yöntemler kullanarak stratejik ve ekonomik etkilerini vurgulamaktadır. Beş Batı Balkan ülkesi olarak kabul edilen Arnavutluk, Bosna-Hersek, Hırvatistan, Kuzey Makedonya ve Sırbistan'da savunma harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, 2007-2024 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Swamy'nin Tesadüfi Katsayılar Modeli ve Görünüşte İlişkisiz Regresyon (SUR) modelleri kullanılarak yapılan tahminler sonucunda, savunma harcamalarının Arnavutluk, Bosna-Hersek ve Kuzey Makedonya'da ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumsuz, Hırvatistan ve Sırbistan'da ise olumlu bir etkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Savunma harcamaları
• Ekonomik büyüme
• Swamy’nin Tesadüfi Katsayılar Modeli
• SUR modeller

Guns, Growth, and Stability: Macroeconomic Impacts of Defense Spending in the Western Balkans and Their Relevance for Türkiye

Öz

The effects of defense spending on macroeconomic indicators in Balkan countries are significant at both academic and political levels. This study uses econometric methods to evaluate how the issue affects Turkiye's regional security and economic interests, highlighting its strategic and economic implications. The relationship between defense spending and economic growth in five Western Balkan countries—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, North Macedonia, and Serbia—was examined using data from 2007 to 2024. Estimates made using Swamy's Random Coefficients Model and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models concluded that defense spending has a negative effect on economic gro

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Defense spending
• Economic growth
• Swamy’s Random Coefficient Model
• SUR models

Kaynakça

1. Aijaz Syed, A. (2021). The asymmetric relationship between military expenditure, economic growth and industrial productivity: An empirical analysis of India, China and Pakistan via the NARDL approach. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 13(1), 77–97.
2. Barros, C. (2002). Development and conflict in the Balkans: Catch-up and military expenditure. Defence and Peace Economics, 13(5), 353–363.
3. Başar, S., & Künü, S. (2012). Savunma harcamalarının iktisadi büyümeye etkisi. Kafkas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 10, 1–30.
4. Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271–280.
5. Biswas, B. (1992). Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries. In B. Biswas (Ed.), Defense spending and economic growth (pp. 223–235). Routledge.
6. Deger, S., & Sen, S. (1983). Military expenditure, spin-off and economic development. Journal of Development Economics, 13(1–2), 67–83.
7. Dunne, J. P., & Smith, R. (1990). Military expenditure and unemployment in the OECD. Defence and Peace Economics, 1(1), 57–73.
8. Dunne, J. P., Smith, R. P., & Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of military expenditure and growth: A critical review. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449–461.

9. Dunne, P., Smith, R., & Willenbockel, D. (2004). Theoretical and econometric issues in analysing the military expenditure–growth nexus.
10. Faini, R., Annez, P., & Taylor, L. (1984). Defense spending, economic structure, and growth: Evidence among countries and over time. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 32(3), 487–498.
11. Gecaj, R. (2018). The security of the Balkan states and the current security threats. Transatlantic Students’ Conference Addressing Diplomatic, Economic, and Migration Challenges in Southeastern Europe, James Madison University, Florence, 23–27 April.
12. Giray, F. (2004). Savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 181–199.
13. Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., & Milenković, N. (2021). Panel cointegration analysis of military expenditure and economic growth in the selected Balkan countries. Economic Themes, 59(3), 375– 390.
14. Kelkitli, F. A. (2013). AKP döneminde Türkiye ve Batı Balkanlar. Avrasya Etüdleri, 44(2), 89–110.
15. Koçbulut, Ö., & Altıntaş, H. (2021). Savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: OECD ülkeleri için panel eşik değer analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 28(3), 533–555.
16. Kusi, N. K. (1994). Economic growth and defense spending in developing countries: A causal analysis. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38(1), 152–159.
17. Mabeba, M. (2024). The effect of military expenditure on economic prosperity in Croatia. Futurity of Social Sciences, 2(2), 4–20.
18. Murdoch, J. C., Pi, C. R., & Sandler, T. (1997). The impact of defense and non-defense public spending on growth in Asia and Latin America. Defence and Peace Economics, 8(2), 205– 224.
19. Omitoogun, W., & Sköns, E. (2006). Military expenditure data: A 40-year overview. In SIPRI Yearbook. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
20. Schizer, D. M. (2022). Red, white, and blue—and also green: How energy policy can protect both national security and the environment. Southern California Law Review, 96, 1157–1208.
21. Sümer, K. K. (2013). Makro ekonometrik modeller. Beşir Kitabevi.
22. Swamy, P. A. V. B. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311–323.
23. Tahirovic, M. (2014). Relations between Turkey and the Balkan countries as a function of improving the regional peace and stability. Adam Academy Journal of Social Sciences, 4(2), 59–76.
24. Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2012). İleri panel veri analizi. Beta Yayınları.
25. World Bank Group. (2023). Western Balkans regular economic report: Toward sustainable growth (No. 24).
26. Zarić, I., & Budimir, Ž. (2022). The great powers’ geopolitical competition over the Balkans: The influence of the Ukrainian crisis. Review of International Affairs, 73(1186).
27. Zellner, A. (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57(298), 348–368.