Türkiye'de Daha Eşitlikçi Vergi Politikaları için Mikrosimülasyon Analizi: 2003-2013

Abstract

Türkiye, yüksek gelir dağılımı eşitsizliği yaşayan bir ülke olarak, son 10 yılda, bölüşümü ciddi biçimde etkilediği bilinen vergi politikalarında özellikle bireysel gelir vergisi tarifesinde önemli değişiklikler gerçekleştirmiştir. İlk değişikliğin gerçekleştiği 2005 yılında en üst gelir diliminin tabi olduğu vergi oranının düşürülmesiyle üst gelir gruplarının vergi yükü azaltılırken; 2008 yılında alt gelir gruplarının vergi yükünü düşüren Asgari Geçim İndirimi (AGİ) uygulamasına başlanmıştır. Bu dönemde bazı ürünlerin KDV oranlarında değişikliklere gidilmesine rağmen, özellikle enerji ve iletişim hizmetlerindeki özel tüketim vergileri yoluyla hanelerin dolaylı vergi yükü artmaya devam etmiştir. Bu değişikliklerin, gelirin yeniden dağılımında çelişkili sonuçlara yol açacağı açıktır. Ancak bugüne kadar Türkiye’de kapsamlı biçimde tüm bu değişiklikleri inceleyen bir çalışma yapılmamıştır. Bu açığı kapatmak amacıyla, bu çalışmada birey ve hanelerin doğrudan ve dolaylı vergi yüklerini hesaplamak için hazırlanmış Türkiye’nin ilk Mikrosimülasyon Modeli’nin sonuçlarını sunuyoruz. Mikrosimülasyon tekniği farklı politika önerilerinin sonuçlarını karşılaştırma olanağı tanıması nedeniyle özellikle kamu politikalarının etkilerinin incelenmesinde etkin bir araçtır. Bu yazıda, hem son 10 yıldaki politika değişikliklerinin birey ve hanelerin vergi yüklerinde ve ikincil dağılımdaki sonuçları incelenmiş hem de daha eşitlikçi bir vergi politikası için olası vergi politikası simülasyonlarının sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır.

Keywords

• Mikrosimülasyon
• Vergi Politikaları
• Gelir Dağılımı
• Türkiye
• Dolaysız Vergiler

A Microsimulation Analysis for a More Progressive Tax Policies in Turkey: 2003 - 2013

Abstract

The incidence of public finance policies has been an important area of research in applied economic studies last couple of decades, particularly for the countries who are struggling to cope with high inequality and poverty rates. Turkey as a country with high income inequality has experienced changes in its tax policies last 10 years, particularly in the personal income tax schedule. The changes have included serious cuts in top tax rates (from 45% to 35%), and reduction in the number of income brackets. Most importantly Cost of Living Allowance for workers was introduced in 2008. Along with these changes, indirect taxes have continued to be the dominant revenue source for the government thanks to high excises. As these developments can have contradictory redistributive impacts, there has been no work to investigate the impact of these changes on distribution. For this aim, in this paper we present the first microsimulation model for Turkey which is designed to estimate both direct and indirect tax burdens on individual and household level. Microsimulation method is an efficient tool as it gives researchers and policy makers the opportunity to compare the results of the different policy recommendations. In addition to evaluating the impacts of tax policy changes last 10 years, we present the results of different simulations conducted to create more progressive tax policies for Turkey 

Keywords

• Microsimulation Models
• Tax Policies
• Income Distribution
• Turkey
• Direct Taxes

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