YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ?

Year 2025, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 793 - 817, 29.12.2025

Oğuz Tümtürk

https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1758938

Abstract

Bu çalışma, petrol fiyatı şoklarının Türkiye ekonomik belirsizliği üzerindeki etkilerini 2006:M1-2024:M12 aylık dönemi için analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, yapısal petrol fiyatı şoklarını belirlemek amacıyla Killian (2009) tarafından önerilen yapısal VAR modeli kullanılmıştır. Küçük açık ekonomi varsayımına dayanılarak, petrol fiyatı şokları dışsal olarak ele alınmış ve bu dışsallık istatistiksel olarak da doğrulanmıştır. Ekonomik belirsizlik değişkeni olarak Kılıç ve Balli (2024) tarafından oluşturulan ülke-spesifik ekonomik belirsizlik verisi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişmelerin arz ve talep şoklarından yakından etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Küresel ekonomik talepte ve petrol-spesifik talepte meydana gelen pozitif şokların yol açtığı petrol fiyatı artışları ise Türkiye’nin ekonomik belirsizliğini arttırmaktadır.

Keywords

Petrol Fiyatı Şokları , Belirsizlik , Yapısal VAR

DO STRUCTURAL OIL PRICE SHOCKS AFFECT TÜRKİYE’S ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY?

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of oil prices shocks on economic uncertainty in Turkey over the monthly period from 2006:M1 to 2024:M12. We employ the structural VAR model proposed by Kilian (2009) to identify structural oil price shocks. Based on the small open economy assumption, oil price shocks are treated as exogenous, and the exogeneity assumption is also empirically validated. We employed the economic country-specific uncertainty index developed by Kılıç and Ballı (2024) as the measure of economic uncertainty. The empirical findings indicate that changes in oil prices are significantly driven by supply and demand shocks. Oil price increases triggered by positive shocks in global demand and oil-specific demand are found to increase economic uncertainty in Turkey.

Keywords

Oil Price Shocks , Uncertainty , Structural VAR

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