YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ?

Oğuz Tümtürk

doi:10.54688/ayd.1758938

TR EN

YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ?

Öz

Bu çalışma, petrol fiyatı şoklarının Türkiye ekonomik belirsizliği üzerindeki etkilerini 2006:M1-2024:M12 aylık dönemi için analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, yapısal petrol fiyatı şoklarını belirlemek amacıyla Killian (2009) tarafından önerilen yapısal VAR modeli kullanılmıştır. Küçük açık ekonomi varsayımına dayanılarak, petrol fiyatı şokları dışsal olarak ele alınmış ve bu dışsallık istatistiksel olarak da doğrulanmıştır. Ekonomik belirsizlik değişkeni olarak Kılıç ve Balli (2024) tarafından oluşturulan ülke-spesifik ekonomik belirsizlik verisi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişmelerin arz ve talep şoklarından yakından etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Küresel ekonomik talepte ve petrol-spesifik talepte meydana gelen pozitif şokların yol açtığı petrol fiyatı artışları ise Türkiye’nin ekonomik belirsizliğini arttırmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Fiyatı Şokları, Belirsizlik, Yapısal VAR

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Türkçe

Konular

Makroekonomik Teori

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Oğuz Tümtürk ^*
0000-0002-1935-0858
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

29 Aralık 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

5 Ağustos 2025

Kabul Tarihi

24 Kasım 2025

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Cilt: 16 Sayı: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1758938

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA59CF29UG

APA

Tümtürk, O. (2025). YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ? Journal of Academic Approaches, 16(2), 793-817. https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1758938

AMA

1.Tümtürk O. YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ? Journal of Academic Approaches. 2025;16(2):793-817. doi:10.54688/ayd.1758938

Chicago

Tümtürk, Oğuz. 2025. “YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ?”. Journal of Academic Approaches 16 (2): 793-817. https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1758938.

EndNote

Tümtürk O (01 Aralık 2025) YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ? Journal of Academic Approaches 16 2 793–817.

IEEE

[1]O. Tümtürk, “YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ?”, Journal of Academic Approaches, c. 16, sy 2, ss. 793–817, Ara. 2025, doi: 10.54688/ayd.1758938.

ISNAD

Tümtürk, Oğuz. “YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ?”. Journal of Academic Approaches 16/2 (01 Aralık 2025): 793-817. https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1758938.

JAMA

1.Tümtürk O. YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ? Journal of Academic Approaches. 2025;16:793–817.

MLA

Tümtürk, Oğuz. “YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ?”. Journal of Academic Approaches, c. 16, sy 2, Aralık 2025, ss. 793-17, doi:10.54688/ayd.1758938.

Vancouver

1.Oğuz Tümtürk. YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ? Journal of Academic Approaches. 01 Aralık 2025;16(2):793-817. doi:10.54688/ayd.1758938

YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ?

YAPISAL PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARI TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BELİRSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLER Mİ?

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

DO STRUCTURAL OIL PRICE SHOCKS AFFECT TÜRKİYE’S ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY?

Öz

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