TÜRKİYEDE TURİZM BİR EKONOMİK BÜYÜME POLİTİKASI ARACI OLABİLİR Mİ? BİR GRANGER NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, turizm ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, Türkiye için 1963-2003 dönemine ait turizm gelirleri, GSMH ve reel döviz kuru değişkenleri kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Kullanılan değişkenlerin birim köke sahip olmaları ve durağan olmamaları nedeni ile Johansen tekniği uygulanmaktadır. Değişkenler koentegre bulunduğu için vektör otoregresyon modeli VAR yerine vektör hata doğrulama modeli VECM kullanılarak nedensellik araştırılmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde turizmden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir ilişki olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye de kamu politikalar n n turizm sektörünü arz ve talebi artıracak şekilde yönlendirmek suretiyle ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırmasının mümkün olduğunu göstermektedir

Keywords

• Turizm,ekonomik büyüme,nedensellik ilişkisi,kamu politikaları

CAN TOURISM BE AN ECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY TOOL IN TURKEY? A GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Abstract

This paper examines the casual relationship between tourism and economic growth in Turkey over the period 1963-2003 using a multivariate model of GDP, tourism earnings and real exchange rate variables. Since the variables included in the model are nonstationary and have a unit root, the Johansen technique has been applied. To test Granger causality instead of VAR model, VECM is employed since there was strong evidence that the variables are cointegrated. The empirical results suggested that there is both short run and long run unidirectional causality running from Tourism to GDP in Turkey. This results suggest that public policies in favor of the tourism supply will enhance Turkey’s economic growth

Keywords

• Tourism,economic growth,causality relationship,public policies

References

1. Akal, M. (2004), “Forcasting Turkey’s Tourism Revenues by ARMAX Model”, Tourism Management. 25(3), 533-546.
2. Alipour H. ve H. Kilic (2003), “An Institutional Appraisal of Tourism Development and Planning: A Case of Turkish Republic of North Cyprus(TRNC)”, Tourism Management. 26(1), 79- 109.
3. Asufu-Adjaye John, (2000), “The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence From Asian Developing Countries”,Energy Economics. 22, 615-625.
4. Bhagwati, J. ve T. Srinivason, (1979), “Trade Policy and Development”, International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, R. Dornbusch and J. Frenkel Eds., Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp. 1-35.
5. Balaguer, J. ve M. Cantavella-Jorda, (2002), “Tourism as a Long Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34(7): 877-884.
6. Brohman J. (1996), “New directions in Tourism for Third World Development”, Annals of Turism Research, 23: 48-70.
7. Burns P. (1999), “Paradoxes in Planning: Tourism Elitism or Brutalism”, Annals of Tourism Research. 26(2), 329-348.
8. Chi-Ok Oh (2002), “The Contribution of Tourism Development to Economic Growth in the Korean Economy”, Tourism Management. 26(1), 39-44.

9. Devlet İstatistik Enstitusü (DİE), (2004), Istatistik Yayinlari, Ankara.
10. Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometrcs Time Series, New York: Wiley. pp. 374.
11. Fayed, H. ve J. Fletcher (2002), “Globalization of Economic Activity: Issues for Tourism.” Tourism Economics. 8(2), 207-230.
12. Göymen K. (2000), “Tourism and Governance in Turkey”, Annals of Tourism Research. 24(7), 1005-1048.
13. Gonzalo, J. (1994), “ Five Altenative Methods of Estimating Long Run Equilibrium Relationships ” Journal of Econometrics. 60, 203-233.
14. Granger C. W. J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics. 39, 199-211.
15. Hendry, D.F., and K. Juselius, (2000), “Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1”, Energy Journal. 21(1), 1-42.
16. Johansen S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 12, 231-254.
17. Kan, Phang, ve Toh, (1995), “Multiplier Effect: Singapore’s Hospitality Industry”, Cornell Hotel and Restourant Administration Quarterly. 36: 64-69.
18. Marin, D. (1992), “Is the Export-led Hypothesis Valid for Industrial Countries?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, 678-688.
19. Stock, J. ve M. Watson (1988), “Testing for Common Trends”, Journal of the American Statistical Association. 83(December), 1097-1107.
20. World Tourism Organization (WTO), (2006), Tourism Market Trend. Retrieved from http://www.world-tourism.org/market-research/facts&figures/menu.htm.