TÜRKİYEDE TURİZM BİR EKONOMİK BÜYÜME POLİTİKASI ARACI OLABİLİR Mİ? BİR GRANGER NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2006, Volume: 9 Issue: 16, 107 - 126, 01.12.2006

Ali Rıza Özdemir , Oktay Öksüzler

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, turizm ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, Türkiye için 1963-2003 dönemine ait turizm gelirleri, GSMH ve reel döviz kuru değişkenleri kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Kullanılan değişkenlerin birim köke sahip olmaları ve durağan olmamaları nedeni ile Johansen tekniği uygulanmaktadır. Değişkenler koentegre bulunduğu için vektör otoregresyon modeli VAR yerine vektör hata doğrulama modeli VECM kullanılarak nedensellik araştırılmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde turizmden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir ilişki olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye de kamu politikalar n n turizm sektörünü arz ve talebi artıracak şekilde yönlendirmek suretiyle ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırmasının mümkün olduğunu göstermektedir

Keywords

Turizm, ekonomik büyüme, nedensellik ilişkisi, kamu politikaları

CAN TOURISM BE AN ECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY TOOL IN TURKEY? A GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Abstract

This paper examines the casual relationship between tourism and economic growth in Turkey over the period 1963-2003 using a multivariate model of GDP, tourism earnings and real exchange rate variables. Since the variables included in the model are nonstationary and have a unit root, the Johansen technique has been applied. To test Granger causality instead of VAR model, VECM is employed since there was strong evidence that the variables are cointegrated. The empirical results suggested that there is both short run and long run unidirectional causality running from Tourism to GDP in Turkey. This results suggest that public policies in favor of the tourism supply will enhance Turkey’s economic growth

Keywords

Tourism, economic growth, causality relationship, public policies

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