COINTEGRATION RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AND THE INCREASE IN CONSUMER CREDITS: A STUDY SPECIFIC TO TURKEY (2015:M2-2020:M2)

Year 2023, Volume: 1 Issue: 2, 40 - 51, 31.12.2023

Müşerref Arık

Abstract

The increased use of consumer loans arises as a result of the people' increased demand for cash as a result of the economy's recessions. While the rising need for cash raised the demand for bank loans, which are the quickest and easiest approach, it also increased the number of people who used loans. Although the causes influencing loan utilization occur on an economic basis, rising unemployment rates may be identified as one of the most significant drivers of the given condition. Although the increase in unemployment rates may be attributed to a lack of work, it is expected that individuals would resort to consumer loans to meet their economic demands. The association between the growth in unemployment rates and the increase in consumer loans in the data range 2015:M2-2020:M2 was examined based on the related hypothesis. The study employed the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test, the Fourier ADF test, and the Johansen Cointegration test. As a consequence of the study, the long-term link between the two variables has been established, and it is advised to develop political arrangements based on the concept of expanding employment while decreasing credit demand.

Keywords

Unemployment Rates, Consumer Loans, Johansen Cointegration Test, Fourier Analysis, Augmented Dickey Fuller

İŞSİZLİK ORANLARI VE TÜKETİCİ KREDİLERİNDEKİ ARTIŞ ARASINDA EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖZELİNDE BİR İNCELEME (2015:M2-2020:M2)

Abstract

Tüketici kredisi kullanımındaki artış, ekonomide meydana gelen gerilemeler sonucunda vatandaşlar tarafından nakit ihtiyacının artması sonucunda meydana gelmektedir. Artan nakit ihtiyacı en hızlı ve kolay yöntem olan banka kredilerine talebi arttırırken, kredi kullanan kişi sayısında da yukarı yönlü bir hareketlenmeyi beraberinde getirmiştir. Kredi kullanımını etkileyen nedenler ekonomik tabanda yer bulmakla birlikte, ifade edilen durumun en büyük etkileyicileri arasında artan işsizlik oranları gösterilebilecektir. İşsizlik oranlarındaki artış, istihdam yetersizliği ile açıklanabilecek olmakla birlikte ilgili durumun ekonomik gereksinimler nedeniyle vatandaşların tüketici kredilerine yöneleceğini düşündürmektedir. İlgili düşünceden hareketle çalışma dahilinde 2015:M2-2020:M2 veri aralığında işsizlik oranlarındaki artış ve tüketici kredilerindeki artış değişkenleri arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada Augmented Dickey Fuller birim kök testi, Fourier ADF testi ve Johansen Eşbütünleşme testinden yararlanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda iki değişken arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisi ispat edilmiş olup istihdamı arttırma anlayışı temelinde politik düzenlemeler gerçekleştirilmesi kredi kullanımına olan talebin azaltılması noktasında önerilmektedir.

Keywords

İşsizlik Oranları, Tüketici Kredileri, Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi, Fourier Analizi, Augmented Dickey Fuller

References

• Baziki, S. B., Kılıç, Y., & Yılmaz, M. H. (2022). Consumer Loan Rate Dispersion And The Role Of Competition: Evidence From Turkish Banking İndustry. Central Bank Review, 22(1), 27–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Cbrev.2022.01.001
• Bethune, Z. (2015). Consumer Credit, Unemployment, and Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics
• Bozoklu, S. & V. Yılancı & M.S. Görüş (2020), Persistence in Per Capita Energy Consumption: A Fractional Integration Approach with A Fourier Function, Energy Economics, (91). 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104926
• Broz, V., & Hlavacek, M. (2019). What Drives the Distributional Dynamics of Client Interest Rates on Consumer Loans in the Czech Republic?, Finance A Uver-Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 69(3). 275-297.
• Cernohorsky, J. (2017). Types of Bank Loans and Theır Impact on Economıc Development: A Case Study of The Czech Republıc. E & M Ekonomie A Management, 20(4), 34–48. https://doi.org/10.15240/Tul/001/2017-4-003
• Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W. (1979), Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, (74), 427–431.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
• Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The Flexible Fourier and Dickey Fuller Type Unit Root Tests, Economics Letters, (117), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
• Fullerton, T. M., & Muniz, E. P. (2020). Credit union loan rate determinants in the United States, Applied Economics, (52)49. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1764481
• Herkenhoff, K. F. (2019). The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Unemployment. The Review of Economic Studies. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz006
• Johansen, S. (1988). “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, s.231-254.
• Kilci, E. N., & Baygin, B. K. (2019). Analysis of The Relationship Between Consumer-Commercial Loan Interest Rates and Non-Performing Loans in Turkey by Employing Asymmetric Adjustment. Maliye Dergisi, 177, 104–120.
• Konat, G., Taş, Ş., & Bayat, T. (2022). The Relationship Between Exchange Market Pressure Index and Dolarization: The Case of Turkey, Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 23(2). https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1065378
• Kozlovtceva, I., Penikas, H., Petreneva, E., & Ushakova, Y. (2022). Macroprudential Policy Efficiency in Russia: Assessment for the Uncollateralized Consumer Loans. Emerging Markets Review, 52, 100910. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Ememar.2022.100910
• Magri, S. (2019). Are Lenders Using Risk-Based Pricing in The Italian Consumer Loan Market? The Effect of the 2008 Crisis. Journal of Credit Risk, 15(1), 27–65. https://doi.org/10.21314/Jcr.2018.241
• Sevinc, D. (2021). The Relationship Between Non-Performıng Loans and Macroeconomic Factors in Turkey. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 8(2), 609–629. https://doi.org/10.30798/Makuiibf.691534
• Sztaudynger, M. (2019). Macroeconomic Factors And Consumer Loan Repayment, The Polish Journal of Economics, (4). 155-177.
• Tian, J., Li, H., & You, P. (2022). Economic Policy Uncertainty, Bank Loan, and Corporate Innovation. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 76, 101873. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Pacfin.2022.101873
• Vithessonthi, C. (2023). The Consequences of Bank Loan Growth: Evidence from Asia. International Review of Economics & Finance, 83, 252–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.İref.2022.08.025
• Wadud, M., Ahmed, H. J. A., & Tang, X. L. (2020). Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the US: Does consumer sentiment play a role?, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, (52). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101132
• Yılmaz, K. S. (2022). Determinants Of Non-Performing Consumer Loans For Turkey: Ardl Bounds Testing Approach, Business Management and Economics Engineering, 20(2). 312-328. https://doi.org/10.3846/bmee.2022.16936