Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

The outward oriented and export led growth strategies followed after the 1980s in Turkish economy have boomed the exports and changed the type of the exported items. In this manner, labour-intensive textile and clothing weighted exportation were replaced by technology-intensive motor vehicles and equipment weighted products. This structural transformation in export has unavoidably affected the amount of human capital used in export sector. In parallel fashion, it is possible that the human capital might affect export, boosting productivity. This study elaborates on the relationships between human capital and export as well as export-growth and human capital-growth relationships, which have been studied extensively. The relationships among variables were investigated using Toda-Yamamoto causality tests covering a period from 1980 to 2007. The findings reveal unidirectional causality from export to human capital. It follows from this that, in accordance with the structural transformation in Turkish economy, more human capital is needed.

Keywords

• Human Capital, Export, Economic Growth

BEŞERİ SERMAYE, İHRACAT VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisinde 1980 sonrası dönemde izlenen dışa açık ve ihracata dayalı büyüme stratejileri, ihracatın hızla artmasına ve ihraç edilen ürünlerin niteliğinin de değişmesine yol açmıştır. Bu çerçevede son yıllarda emek yoğun tekstil ve giyim eşyası ağırlıklı ihracat yapısı, teknoloji yoğun motorlu taşıtlar ve ekipmanları ağırlıklı bir yapıya dönüşmüştür. İhracattaki bu yapısal dönüşümün, ihracat sektörlerinde ihtiyaç duyulan beşeri sermaye miktarını da etkilemesi kaçınılmazdır. Benzer şekilde beşeri sermayenin de verimlilik artışı sağlayarak ihracatı etkilemesi mümkündür. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada, uygulamalı literatürde yoğun bir şekilde ele alınan ihracat-büyüme ve beşeri sermaye-büyüme ilişkilerinin yanında özellikle beşeri sermaye-ihracat ilişkileri üzerinde yoğunlaşılmıştır. Değişkenler arası ilişkiler, 1980-2007 dönemi için Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, ihracattan beşeri sermayeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisini göstermektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuç, Türkiye ekonomisinin ihracatında görülen yapısal değişime paralel olarak daha fazla beşeri sermayeye gereksinim duyduğu biçiminde yorumlanabilir.

Keywords

• Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat, Büyüme

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