Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

The outward oriented and export led growth strategies followed after the 1980s in Turkish economy have boomed the exports and changed the type of the exported items. In this manner, labour-intensive textile and clothing weighted exportation were replaced by technology-intensive motor vehicles and equipment weighted products. This structural transformation in export has unavoidably affected the amount of human capital used in export sector. In parallel fashion, it is possible that the human capital might affect export, boosting productivity. This study elaborates on the relationships between human capital and export as well as export-growth and human capital-growth relationships, which have been studied extensively. The relationships among variables were investigated using Toda-Yamamoto causality tests covering a period from 1980 to 2007. The findings reveal unidirectional causality from export to human capital. It follows from this that, in accordance with the structural transformation in Turkish economy, more human capital is needed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Human Capital, Export, Economic Growth

BEŞERİ SERMAYE, İHRACAT VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Öz

Türkiye ekonomisinde 1980 sonrası dönemde izlenen dışa açık ve ihracata dayalı büyüme stratejileri, ihracatın hızla artmasına ve ihraç edilen ürünlerin niteliğinin de değişmesine yol açmıştır. Bu çerçevede son yıllarda emek yoğun tekstil ve giyim eşyası ağırlıklı ihracat yapısı, teknoloji yoğun motorlu taşıtlar ve ekipmanları ağırlıklı bir yapıya dönüşmüştür. İhracattaki bu yapısal dönüşümün, ihracat sektörlerinde ihtiyaç duyulan beşeri sermaye miktarını da etkilemesi kaçınılmazdır. Benzer şekilde beşeri sermayenin de verimlilik artışı sağlayarak ihracatı etkilemesi mümkündür. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada, uygulamalı literatürde yoğun bir şekilde ele alınan ihracat-büyüme ve beşeri sermaye-büyüme ilişkilerinin yanında özellikle beşeri sermaye-ihracat ilişkileri üzerinde yoğunlaşılmıştır. Değişkenler arası ilişkiler, 1980-2007 dönemi için Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, ihracattan beşeri sermayeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisini göstermektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuç, Türkiye ekonomisinin ihracatında görülen yapısal değişime paralel olarak daha fazla beşeri sermayeye gereksinim duyduğu biçiminde yorumlanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat, Büyüme

Kaynakça

1. Aighon, Philippe-P. Howitt (1992) “A model of Growth through Creative Destruction,” Econemetrica, 323-51.
2. Alıcı, Aslı A.-Meltem S. Ucal (2003) “Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis,” European Trade Study Group (ETSG) 5th. Annual Conference 11- 13 September, Madrid, http://www.etsg.org/ETSG2003/papers/alici.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 21.08.2009)
3. Berg, Andrew-Anne Kruger (2003) “Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey,” IMF Working Paper, WP/03/30, (Erişim Tarihi: 20.09.2007), http://www.internationalmonetaryfund.com/external/ pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp0330.pdf
4. Dixon, Robert-Anthony P. Thirlwall (1975) “A Model of Regional Growth Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines,” Oxford Economic Papers, 27(2): 201-214.
5. Gråsjö Urban (2005) “Human capital, R&D and Regional Export Performance,” The Royal Institute of Technology, Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS) Electronic Working Paper Series, No:50.
6. Grossman, Gene M.-Elhanan Helpman (1991) Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, MIT Press, Cambridge.
7. Grossman, Gene M.-Elhanan Helpman (1990) “Comparative Advantage and Long-Run Growth,” American Economic Review, 80(4): 796-815.
8. Barro, Robert J. (1991) “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106: 407-443.

9. Chuang, Yih-Chyi (1998) “Learning by Doing, the Technology Gap, and Growth,” International Economic Review, 39: 697-721.
10. Chuang, Yih-Chyi (2000) Human capital, exports and economic growth: a causality analysis for Taiwan 1952– 1995, Review of International Economics, 8(4): 712-720.
11. Contractor Farok J.-Susan M. Mudambi (2008) “The Influence of Human Capital Investment on the Exports of Services and Goods: An Analysis of the Top 25 Services Outsourcing Countries,” Management International Review, 48 (4): 433-445.
12. Cortés-Jiménez-Isabel Manuela Pulina-Carme Riera i Prunera-Manuel Artis, (2009) “Tourism and Exports as a means of Growth,” Research Institute of Applied Economics, Working Papers No:2009/10.
13. Eickelpasch Alexander-Alexander Vogel (2008) “Determinants of Export Behaviour of German Business Services Companies,” Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Discussion Papers, No: 876.
14. Levin, Andrew-Lakshmi K. Raut (1997) “Complementarities between Exports and Human Capital in Economic Growth: Evidence from the Semi-Industrialized Countries,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 46: 155-74.
15. Lucas, Robert E., Jr. (1988) “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22:3-42.
16. Moslehi Adel-Ali Mohaghar-Alireza Tamizi-Sanaz Bayati (2006) “Intellectual Capital and Export Development, an examination in four service Industries,” IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology, 407-411.
17. Narayan, Paresh Kumar-Russel Smyth (2004) “Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Exports, Human Capital and Real Income in China,” International Journal of Applied Economics, 1(1): 24–45.
18. Pissarides, Christopher A. (1997) “Learning by Trading and the Returns to Human Capital in Developing Countries,” World Bank Economic Review,11: 17–32.
19. Romer, Paul M. (1990) “Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence,” Carnegie–Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 32: 251–85.
20. Stoian, Maria-Cristina (2007) Human Capıtal in Export-based Internationalisation: “Managerial Determinants and Their Influence upon the Export Behaviour of the Firm: Four Case-Studies of Catalan Exporting SMES,” European Doctoral Programme in Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management, Unıversitat Autònoma De Barcelona.
21. Stokey, Nancy L. “Human Capital, Product Quality, and Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (1991):587–616.
22. Swift, Daniel (2006) “Human Capital Investment as a Realist Foreign Policy,” International Public Policy Review, 2 (2): 68-91.
23. Tsen, Wong Hock (2006) “Granger Causality Tests Among Openness to International Trade, Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth in China: 1952-1999,” International Economic Journal, 20 (3) Ünsal, Erdal (2007) İktisadi Büyüme, İmaj Yayınevi, Ankara.
24. Wagner, Joachim (2008) “Exports and Firm Characteristics: First Evidence from Fractional Probit Panel Estimates,” University of Lüneburg, Working Paper Series in Economics, No. 97.
25. Yavuz, Nilgün Ç. (2006) “Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisinin Testi: Yapısal Kırılma ve Nedensellik Analizi,” Doğus Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7 (2): 162-171.
26. Young, Alwyn (1991) “Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106: 369-405.