Orta Asya Devletleri’nin Küresel Güçlere Siyasal Yakınlığının Analizi: Kırgızistan, Tacikistan ve Türkmenistan Örneği

Abstract

Uzun bir süre Sovyet rejimi altında kalan Orta Asya Devletleri, bağımsızlıklarını kazanmalarının ardından dünya siyasetinde küresel ve bölgesel politika tercihleri konusunda merak uyandırmaya başlamış ve bu durum küresel güç rekabetinde de Orta Asya’nın öneminin artmasına yol açmıştır. Küçük Devlet kavramı etrafında teorize edilen bu çalışmada, Orta Asya Devletleri’nden Kırgızistan, Tacikistan ve Türkmenistan’ın 1992-2021 yılları arasındaki Birleşmiş Milletler (BM) Genel Kurulu oy verileri analiz edilerek üç küresel güç olan ABD, Çin ve Rusya’ya karşı siyasal yakınlık derecelerinin ortaya koyulması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmanın Orta Asya Devletleri’nden üç devlet ile sınırlandırılmasının nedeni yalnız bu devletlerin küçük devlet tanımına uygun olmasıdır. BM oy verilerine dayanarak elde edilen nicel analiz sonuçlarına göre üç Orta Asya Devleti’nin; siyasal yakınlık açıdan kuruluştan günümüze Rusya ve Çin’e ABD’den daha yakın olduğu; özellikle 1995-96 yıllarından sonra ABD ile siyasal yakınlığın giderek farklılaştığı; Çin ile siyasal yakınlığın ise özellikle 2000’li yıllardan sonra artış gösterdiği anlaşılmıştır.

Keywords

• Orta Asya
• siyasal yakınlık
• Birleşmiş Milletler
• küçük devlet
• küreselgüçler

An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan

Abstract

The Central Asian states, which remained under the Soviet regime for a long time, started to arouse curiosity in world politics about global and regional policy preferences after they gained their independence, and this situation led to an increase in the importance of Central Asia in global power competition. In this study, which is theorized around the concept of Small State, it is aimed to reveal the degree of political affinity towards the three global powers, China, Russia, and the USA, by analyzing the United Nations (UN) General Assembly voting data of the Central Asian States, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan between 1992-2021. The reason why the study is limited to three states from the Central Asian States is that only these states are suitable for the definition of small states. According to the quantitative analysis results obtained based on the UN voting data; the three Central Asian States are closer to Russia and China than the USA from their establishment to the present in terms of political affinity; the political affinity with the USA has become increasingly different especially after the years 1995-96; and, it is understood that the political affinity with China has increased especially after the 2000s.

Keywords

• Central Asia
• political affinity
• United Nations
• small state
• global powers

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