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An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan

Yıl 2023, , 1 - 32, 30.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10701

Öz

The Central Asian states, which remained under the Soviet regime for a long time, started to arouse curiosity in world politics about global and regional policy preferences after they gained their independence, and this situation led to an increase in the importance of Central Asia in global power competition. In this study, which is theorized around the concept of Small State, it is aimed to reveal the degree of political affinity towards the three global powers, China, Russia, and the USA, by analyzing the United Nations (UN) General Assembly voting data of the Central Asian States, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan between 1992-2021. The reason why the study is limited to three states from the Central Asian States is that only these states are suitable for the
definition of small states. According to the quantitative analysis results obtained based on the UN voting data; the three Central Asian States are closer to Russia and China than the USA from their establishment to the present in terms of political affinity; the political affinity with the USA has become increasingly different especially after the years 1995-96; and, it is understood that the political affinity with China has increased especially after the 2000s.

Kaynakça

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Orta Asya Devletleri’nin Küresel Güçlere Siyasal Yakınlığının Analizi: Kırgızistan, Tacikistan ve Türkmenistan Örneği

Yıl 2023, , 1 - 32, 30.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10701

Öz

Uzun bir süre Sovyet rejimi altında kalan Orta Asya Devletleri, bağımsızlıklarını kazanmalarının ardından dünya siyasetinde küresel ve bölgesel politika tercihleri konusunda merak uyandırmaya
başlamış ve bu durum küresel güç rekabetinde de Orta Asya’nın öneminin artmasına yol açmıştır. Küçük Devlet kavramı etrafında teorize edilen bu çalışmada, Orta Asya Devletleri’nden Kırgızistan,
Tacikistan ve Türkmenistan’ın 1992-2021 yılları arasındaki Birleşmiş Milletler (BM) Genel Kurulu oy verileri analiz edilerek üç küresel güç olan ABD, Çin ve Rusya’ya karşı siyasal yakınlık derecelerinin ortaya koyulması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmanın Orta Asya Devletleri’nden üç devlet ile sınırlandırılmasının nedeni yalnız bu devletlerin küçük devlet tanımına uygun olmasıdır. BM oy verilerine dayanarak elde edilen nicel analiz sonuçlarına göre üç Orta Asya Devleti’nin; siyasal yakınlık açıdan kuruluştan günümüze Rusya ve Çin’e ABD’den daha yakın olduğu; özellikle 1995-96 yıllarından sonra ABD ile siyasal yakınlığın giderek farklılaştığı; Çin ile siyasal yakınlığın ise özellikle 2000’li yıllardan
sonra artış gösterdiği anlaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

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  • Archer, Clive, Alyson JK Bailes, and Anders Wivel, Eds. Small States and International Security: Europe and Beyond. Routledge, 2014.
  • Armstrong, Harvey W., and Robert Read. “The Determinants of Economic Growth in Small States.” The Round Table: Commonwealth, Journal of International Affairs, vol. 92, no. 368, 2003, pp. 99-124.
  • Badan, Phool. “Emerging Political System in Central Asia in the Post-Soviet period.” India Quarterly, vol. 57, no. 3, 2001, pp. 97-118.
  • Bailey, Michael A., Anton Strezhnev, and Erik Voeten. “Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 61, no. 2, 2017, ss. 430-456.
  • Barnett, Michael, and Raymond Duvall. “Power in International Politics.” International Organization, vol.59 no.1, 2005, pp. 39-75.
  • Batsaikhan, Uuriintuya, and Marek Dabrowski. “Central Asia—twenty-five years after the breakup of the USSR.” Russian Journal of Economics, vol. 3, no. 3, 2017, pp. 296-320.
  • Bertrand, Olivier, Marie-Ann Betschinger, and Alexander Settles. “The Relevance of Political Affinity for the Initial Acquisition Premium in Cross‐border Acquisitions.” Strategic Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 10, 2016, pp. 2071-2091.
  • Beşimov, Baktıbek, and Satke Ryskeldi. “Orta Asya’da Rusya-Çin Mücadelesi.” Aljazeera Turk, 14.03.2014. http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/gorus/orta-asyadarusya-cin-mucadelesi.
  • Birdişli, Fikret. “Orta Asya Bölgesel Güvenlik Kompleksi Bağlamında KırgızistanÖzbekistan İhtilafı.” Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 15, no. 30, 2017, pp. 123-143.
  • Blank, Stephen. “The Strategic Importance of Central Asia: an American View.” Parameters 38, no. 1, 2008, pp. 73-87.
  • Browning, Christopher S. “Small, Smart and Salient? Rethinking Identity in the Small States Literature.” Cambridge review of international affairs, vol. 19, no. 4, 2006, pp. 669-684.
  • Bukovskis, Karlis, Aleksandra Palkova, and Arturs Bikovs. “Foreign Policy Specialization of Small States: Latvia’s Engagement in Central Asia.” Romanian Journal of European Affairs, vol 21, no. 2, 2021, pp. 114-129.
  • Boyer, Alan Lee. “US Foreign Policy in Central Asia: Risk, ends, and Means.” Naval War College Review, vol. 59, no. 1, 2006, pp. 91-118.
  • Cooper, Andrew F., and Bessma Momani. “Qatar And Expanded Contours of Small State Diplomacy.” The International Spectator, vol. 46, no. 3, 2011, pp. 113-128.
  • Copeland, Dale C. “The Constructivist Challenge to Structural Realism.” Constructivism and International Relations, Eds. S. Guzzini & A. Leander, London: Routledge, 2006.
  • Dahl, Robert A. “The Concept of Power.” Behavioral Science, vol. 2, no. 3, 1957, pp. 201-215.
  • Das, Aparajita. “A Fine Balance: India’s Voting Record at the UNGA.” Observer Research Foundation, vol. 192, no. 16, 2017, 1-16.
  • Dreher, Axel, Peter Nunnenkamp, and Rainer Thiele. “Does US aid buy UN General Assembly Votes? A Disaggregated Analysis.” Public Choice, vol. 136, 2008, pp. 139-164.
  • Dreher, Axel, and Nathan M. Jensen. “Country or Leader? Political Change and UN General Assembly Voting.” European Journal of Political Economy, vol. 29, no. 1, 2013, pp. 183-196.
  • East, Maurice. “Size and Foreign Policy Behaviour: A test for two models.” Journal of World Politics, vol. 25, 1973, pp. 556-576.
  • Elman, Miriam F. “The Foreign Policies of Small States: Challenging Neorealism in its Own Backyard.” British Journal of Political Science, vol. 25, no. 2, 1995, pp. 171-217.
  • Erol, Mehmet Seyfettin, and Tunç Çiğdem. “11 Eylül Sonrası ABD’nin Küresel Güç Mücadelesinde Orta Asya.” Avrasya Dosyası, vol. 9, no. 3, 2003, pp. 5-28.
  • Evans, Graham, and Jeffrey Newnham. “The Penguin Dictionary of International Relations.” London: Penguin Books, 1999.
  • Ferdinand, Peter. “Rising powers at the UN: an Analysis of the Voting Behaviour of BRICS in the General Assembly.” Third World Quarterly, vol. 35, no. 3, 2014, pp. 376-391.
  • Garrison, A. Jean, and Ahad Abdurahmonov. “Explaining the Central Asian Energy Game: Complex Interdependence and How Small States Influence Their Big Neighbors” Asian Perspective, vol. 35, no. 3, 2011, pp. 381-405.
  • Gartzke, Erik. “Kant We All Just get Along? Opportunity, Willingness, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace.” American Journal of Political Science, vol. 42, no. 1, 1998, pp. 1-27.
  • Gleason, Gregory, Asel Kerimbekova and Svetlana Kozhirova. “Realism and the Small State: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan.” International Politics, vol. 45, no. 1, 2008, pp. 40-51.
  • Goetschel, Laurent. Small States Inside and Outside the European Union: Interests and Policies. Springer Science & Business Media, 2013.
  • Handel, Michael. Weak States in the International System. London: Frank Cass., 1990.
  • Hansen, Flemming S. “Small States in Post-Soviet Central Asia: Navigating Between Two Great Power Neighbours.” Handbook on the politics of small states, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2020.
  • Hey, Jeanne A. K. “Introducing Small State Foreign Policy.” Small States in World Politics: Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior, der. Jeanne A. K. Hey, Boulder, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2003.
  • Horta, Loro. “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): An Asian NATO?” Asia Pasific: Perspectives, vol. 8, no. 1, 2008.
  • Hwang, Wonjae, Amanda G. Sanford, and Junhan Lee. “Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence Voting in the UN General Assembly?” International Interactions, vol. 41, no. 2, 2015, pp. 256-278.
  • Jargalsaikhan, Enkhsaikhan. “The Role of Small States in Promoting International Security: The Case of Mongolia.” Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, vol. 1, no. 2, 2018, pp. 404-435.
  • Kainazarov, Baktybek. “Competition of World Powers in Central Asia.” Przegląd Politologiczny, vol. 2 2019, pp. 67-77.
  • Kanapiyanova, Zhuldyz. “The US and Russian Policy toward Central Asia in The Framework of The Geopolitical Theory.” Eurasian Research Journal, vol. 2, no. 2, 2020, pp. 55-68.
  • Kazantsev, Andrei, Svetlana Medvedeva, and Ivan Safranchuk. “Between Russia and China: Central Asia in Greater Eurasia.” Journal of Eurasian Studies, vol. 12, no. 1, 2021, pp. 57-71.
  • Kelkitli, Fatma Asli. “Small State Foreign Policy in Central Asia: The Cases of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.” Insight Turkey, vol. 24, no. 4, 2022, pp. 145-166, https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/48706293.
  • Keohane, Robert. “Lilliputian’s Dilemmas: Small States in International Politics.” International Organization, vol. 23, no. 2, 1969, pp. 291-310.
  • Keohane, Robert. “Political Influence in the General Assembly.” International Conciliation, 1966.
  • Khan, Mohammad Zahidul Islam. “Is Voting Patterns at the United Nations General Assembly a Useful Way to Understand a Country’s Policy Inclinations: Bangladesh’s Voting Records at the United Nations General Assembly.” SAGE Open, vol. 10, no. 4, 2020.
  • Kim, Anthony. “The Geopolitical Rivalry in Central Asia Will Only Intensify.” Central Asia, 2021, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/geopolitics-centralasia/Knudsen, Olav F. “Small States, Latent and Extant: Towards a General Perspective.” Journal of International Relations and Development, vol. 5, no. 2, 2002, pp. 182-198.
  • Kurecic, Petar, Goran Kozina, and Filip Kokotovic. “Revisiting the Definition of Small State through the use of Relational and Quantitative Criteria.” 19th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development Book of Proceedings, Melbourne: Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency, 2017.
  • Kurşun, Ali M., and Emel Parlar Dal. “An Analysis of Turkey’s and BRICS’ Voting Cohesion in the UN General Assembly during 2002–2014.” Global Policy, vol. 8, no. 2, 2017, pp.191-201.
  • Labs, Eric J. “Do Weak States Bandwagon?” Security Studies, vol. 1, no. 3, 1992, ss. 383-416
  • Laruelle, Marlène, and Sébastien Peyrouse. “The United States in Central Asia: Reassessing a Challenging Partnership.” Strategic Analysis, vol. 35, no. 3, 2011, pp. 427-438.
  • Liedy, Amy. “The Great Power Rivalvry in Central Asia.” Kennan Institute, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/the-great-power-rivalry-central-asia.
  • Mackinder, Halford J. The Geographical Pivot of History in Democratic Ideals and Reality New York: Norton and Company, 1962.
  • Mamedova, Anastasia O. “US-UK Cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly: Important Votes (2001-2019).” Mgimo Review of International Relations, vol. 15, no. 2, 2022, pp. 164-208.
  • Melnikovova, Lea. “China’s Interests in Central Asian Economies.” Human Affairs, vol. 30, no. 2, 2020, pp. 239-252.
  • Morgenthau, Hans J. “Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace.” 4th ed. New York: Knopf, 1968.
  • Mowle, Thomas S. “Worldviews in Foreign Policy: Realism, Liberalism, and External Conflict”. Political Psychology, vol.24 no.3, 2003, pp. 561-592.
  • Murray, David J. “Microstates: Public Administration for the Small and Beautiful.” Public Administration and Development, vol. 1, no. 3, 1981, pp.. 245-256.
  • Mosler, Martin, and Niklas Potrafke. “International Political Alignment during the Trump Presidency: Voting at the UN General Assembly.” International Interactions, vol. 46, no. 3, 2020, pp. 481-497.
  • Mushelenga, Peya, and Jo-Ansie Van Wyk. “The diplomacy of Small States in the International Political System.” Journal for Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences, 2019, pp. 118-145.
  • Nedelea, Marilena O. “Economics’ Diplomacy and Romania’s Foreign Interests Promotion.” The USV (University Suceava) Annals of Economics and Public Administration, vol. 9, no. 1, 2009, pp. 335-340.
  • Neumann, Iver B., and Sieglinde Gstöhl. “Introduction: Lilliputians in Gulliver’s World?” Eds. C. Ingebritsen, I. B. Neumann, S. Gstöhl, & J. Beyer, Small states in International Relations, Seattle, WA: University of Washington Press, 2006, pp. 3-36.
  • Nogayeva, Ainur. “Orta Asya’da ABD, Rusya ve Çin: Stratejik Denge Arayışları.” International Strategic Research Organization, USAK, 2011.
  • Oliphant, Craig. “Russia’s Role and Interests in Central Asia.” Safer World, 2013.
  • Orasam. “Orta Asya-Çin Doğal Gaz Hattı Çin’e 270 Miyar Metreküp Doğalgaz Taşıdı.” (15.07.2019) https://orasam.manas.edu.kg/index.php/tr/turkmenistan/2133-orta-asya-in-do-al-gaz-hatti-in-e- 270-milyar-metrek-pdo-al-gaz-ta-idi.
  • Purtaş, Fırat. Orta Asya ile Güney Asya Arasında Modern İpek Yolu Projesi. Ankara, 2011. https://www.ayu.edu.tr//static/kitaplar/hindistan_rapor.pdf. Qodirov, Nosirkhon. “Central Asia in Between Russia, China and the United States: Cooperation or Competition?” Avrasya Dünyası, vol. 10, 2022, pp. 4-10.
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  • Voeten, Erik. Data and analyses of voting in the United Nations General Assembly. London: Routledge, 2013.
  • Voeten, Erik, Strezhnev Anton, and Michael Bailey. “United Nations General Assembly Voting Data.” Harvard Dataverse, vol. 28, 2009, UNVotes.csv. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LEJUQZ.
  • Walt, Stephen M. “International Relations: One World, Many Theories.” Foreign Policy, 110, 1998, pp. 29-46.
  • Walt, Stephen M. The Origins of Alliances. NY: Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1987.
  • Waltz, Kenneth. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979.
  • Weber, Max. The Theory of Social and Economic Organization. New York: Oxfod University Press. 1947.
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  • Wishnick, Elizabeth. Russia, China, and the United States in Central Asia: Prospects for Great Power Competition and Cooperation in the Shadow of the Georgian Crisis. Strategic Studies Institute, 2009.
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  • Yakobashvili, Temuri. “A Chinese Marshall Plan for Central Asia.” 16.10.2013, http://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/12838-achinese-marshall-plan-for-centralasia?.html.
  • Yapıcı, Utku. “Kazakistan’ın Dış Güvenlik Politikasında Çok-vektörlülük.” Der. Demirtepe, M. Turgut, and Özkan, Güner, Uluslararası Sistemde Orta Asya: Dış Politika ve Güvenlik, USAK Yayınları, Ankara, 2013.
  • Ziegler, Charles E. “Russia in Central Asia: The Dynamics of Great-Power Politics in a Volatile Region.” Asian Perspective, vol. 38, no. 4, Special Issue: The Impact of Post-2014 Afghanistan on Asia Regional Security (Oct.-Dec. 2014), pp. 589-617.
Toplam 84 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Türk Dünyası Çalışmaları
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Zuhal Çalık Topuz 0000-0003-0021-1353

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Ekim 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023

Kaynak Göster

APA Çalık Topuz, Z. (2023). An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Bilig(107), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10701
AMA Çalık Topuz Z. An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Bilig. Ekim 2023;(107):1-32. doi:10.12995/bilig.10701
Chicago Çalık Topuz, Zuhal. “An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan”. Bilig, sy. 107 (Ekim 2023): 1-32. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10701.
EndNote Çalık Topuz Z (01 Ekim 2023) An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Bilig 107 1–32.
IEEE Z. Çalık Topuz, “An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan”, Bilig, sy. 107, ss. 1–32, Ekim 2023, doi: 10.12995/bilig.10701.
ISNAD Çalık Topuz, Zuhal. “An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan”. Bilig 107 (Ekim 2023), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10701.
JAMA Çalık Topuz Z. An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Bilig. 2023;:1–32.
MLA Çalık Topuz, Zuhal. “An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan”. Bilig, sy. 107, 2023, ss. 1-32, doi:10.12995/bilig.10701.
Vancouver Çalık Topuz Z. An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Bilig. 2023(107):1-32.

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