İşsizlik Histerisinin Sektörel Bir Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisinin üstesinden gelmek zorunda olduğu en önemli sorunlardan birisi işsizliktir. Literatürde yüksek işsizlik oranlarını açıklayan çok sayıda teori vardır. Denge işsizlik oranı teorileri olarak da adlandırılan geleneksel teoriler, işsizli- ği, doğal işsizlik oranı etrafında dalgalanmalar olarak tasvir ederler. Fakat bu geleneksel teorilere, son yıllarda popüler hale gelen histeri hipotezi perspektifinden itirazlar yükselmiştir. Bu makale, Türkiye için 1988-2008 verilerini kullanarak sektörel ve genel işsizlikteki histeri etkisini test etmektedir. Çalışmada doğal oran alternatif hipotezine karşılık histeri etkisini test etmek için yapısal kırılmasız ve yapısal kırılmalı tek değişenli zaman serisi birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Bulunan sonuç- lar önceki ampirik çalışmalara benzer olarak, histeri hipotezinin reddedilmesi üzerinde yoğunlaşmakta ve Phelps (1994) tarafından geliştirilen yapısalcı teori ile uyumludur.

Keywords

• Histeri, Para Politikası, İşsizlik, Birim Kök Testi, Yapısal Kı- rılma. JEL Sınıflandırması: E2, E24, E31

A Sectoral Analysis of Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

One of the most important issues that the Turkish economy must overcome is the problem of unemployment. Several theories have been proposed to explain the existence of high unemployment rates. Traditional theories, sometimes referred to as equilibrium unemployment rate theories, describe movements in the unemployment as fluctuations around the natural rate. However, these theories have been challenged by hysteresis theories, which have become the popular explanations for the increase in unemployment. This paper tests hysteresis effects in sectoral and general unemployment using data from Turkey for the period 1988–2008. The paper applies univariate time series unit root tests with and without structural break to test for unemployment hysteresis in Turkey versus the alternative of a natural rate. Similar to previous empirical research, the results point to the rejection of the hysteresis hypothesis and are compatible with the structuralist theories as described by Phelps (1994)

Keywords

• Hysteresis, Monetary Policy, Unemployment, Unit Root Test, Structural Breaks. JEL Classification: E2, E24, E31

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