Enflasyonun Mali Performansa Etkileri: Gelişmiş Ekonomiler İçin Panel Eşik Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2002-2023 dönemi için IMF sınıflandırmasına göre gelişmiş ekonomiler olarak sınıflandırılan 35 ülkeden elde edilen verileri kullanarak, enflasyon ile mali performansın bir göstergesi olan bütçe dengesi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Enflasyonun mali performans üzerindeki etkisinin doğrusal olmadığı varsayımıyla, analizde Hansen (1999) tarafından geliştirilen tek eşikli sabit etkiler panel eşik analizi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, enflasyonun reel kamu harcamalarını azaltmak suretiyle bütçe dengesini iyileştirebileceğine işaret eden Patinkin etkisinin gelişmiş ekonomilerdeki her rejimde geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Dış denge, kamu borcu, ekonomik büyüme, siyasi istikrar ve nüfus artışı da mali performansın önemli belirleyicileridir. Yapılan sağlamlılık testi de bu sonuçları doğrulamaktadır. Bulgular, fiyat düzeylerindeki değişikliklerin kamu harcamaları yoluyla mali dengeyi etkileyebileceğini ve bu nedenle, kalıcı mali disiplin sağlamak için harcama verimliliğine dayalı politikaların önceliklendirilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Enflasyon
• Mali Performans
• Bütçe Dengesi
• Olivera-Tanzi Etkisi
• Patinkin Etkisi

The Effects of Inflation on Fiscal Performance: A Panel Threshold Approach for Advanced Economies

Abstract

This paper analyzes the link between inflation and the budget balance, considered a key measure of fiscal performance, by utilizing data from 35 IMF-designated advanced economies covering the years 2002 to 2023. Assuming that the effect of inflation on fiscal performance is not linear, the analysis uses the single-threshold fixed-effects panel threshold analysis method developed by Hansen (1999). The findings show that the Patinkin effect holds in every regime in advanced economies and that inflation improves the budget balance by reducing real public spending. External balance, public debt, economic growth, political stability, and population growth are also significant determinants of fiscal performance. Robustness test confirms these results. The findings indicate that changes in price levels can affect fiscal balance through public spending and, therefore, policies based on spending efficiency should be prioritized to ensure lasting fiscal discipline.

Keywords

• Inflation
• Fiscal Performance
• Budget Balance
• Olivera-Tanzi Effect
• Patinkin Effect

References

1. Abdioğlu, Z., & Terzi, H. (2009). Enflasyon ve Bütçe Açıkları İlişkisi: Tanzi ve Patinkin Etkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 195–211.
2. Abizadeh, S., & Yousefi, M. (1998). Deficits and Inflation: An Open Economy Model of the United States. Applied Economics, 30(10), 1307–1316.
3. Aghevli, B. B., & Khan, M. S. (1978). Government Deficits and the Inflationary Process in Developing Countries. IMF Staff Papers, 25(3), 383–415.
4. Aktan, C. C., & Dileyici, D. (2010). Maliye Politikası. Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık.
5. Bailey, M. J. (1956). The Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance. Journal of Political Economy, 64(2), 93–110.
6. Blanchard, O. J. (1990). Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators (No. 79). Paris: OECD Publishing.
7. Buiter, W. H. (1985). A Guide to Public Sector Debt and Deficits. Economic Policy, 1(1), 13–61.
8. Cagan, P. (1956). The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation. In M. Friedman (Ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money (pp. 25–117). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

9. Caner, M., & Hansen, B. E. (2004). Instrumental Variable Estimation of a Threshold Model. Econometric Theory, 20(5), 813–843.
10. Cardoso, E. (1998). Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect. IMF Staff Papers, 45(4), 619–646.
11. Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Kim, D., & Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. Econometric Theory, 25(6), 1754–1792.
12. Çavuşoğlu, A. T. (2005). Vergi Gelirleri ve Kamu Harcamaları Açısından Enflasyon: Tanzi ve Ters Tanzi Etkileri. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(3), 35–52.
13. Chang, H. J. (1994). Impact of Inflation, Output, Employment, and Income Effect in Budget Deficits for Taiwan: A Forecast of Regional Input–Output Approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 16(3), 345–351.
14. Demir, F. (2023). The Effect of Inflation on the Budget Deficit in Türkiye: Evidence from Cointegration Test with Multiple Structural Breaks. Journal of Life Economics, 10(4), 169–178.
15. Dhakal, D., Kandil, M., Sharma, S. C., & Trescott, P. B. (1994). Determinants of the Inflation Rate in the United States: A VAR Investigation. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 34(1), 95–112.
16. Dornbusch, R. (1998). Debt and Monetary Policy: The Policy Issues. In G. Calvo & M. King (Eds.), The Debt Burden and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy (pp. 3–22). London: Macmillan Press.
17. Dwyer, G. P., Jr. (1982). Inflation and Government Deficits. Economic Inquiry, 20(3), 315–329.
18. Günay, N. (2006). Kamu Bütçesi. Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
19. Gupta, K. L. (1992). Budget Deficits and Economic Activity in Asia. London and New York: Routledge.
20. Hamburger, M. J., & Zwick, B. (1981). Deficits, Money and Inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 7(1), 141–150.
21. Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345–368.
22. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). World Economic Outlook (WEO). Retrieved September 20, 2025, from https://www.imf.org/en/publications/sprolls/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending
23. Karras, G. (1994). Macroeconomic Effects of Budget Deficits: Further International Evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 13(2), 190–210.
24. Keynes, J. M. (1971). A Tract on Monetary Reform (Original work published 1923). In The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes (Vol. 4). London: Macmillan.
25. Kremer, S., Bick, A., & Nautz, D. (2013). Inflation and Growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis. Empirical Economics, 44(2), 861–878.
26. Maki, D. (2012). Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011–2015.
27. Musgrave, R. A., & Musgrave, P. B. (1989). Public Finance in Theory and Practice (5th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
28. Niskanen, W. A. (1978). Deficits, Government Spending, and Inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 4(3), 591–602.
29. Oladipo, S. O., & Akinbobola, T. O. (2011). Budget Deficit and Inflation in Nigeria: A Causal Relationship. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(1), 1–8.
30. Olivera, J. H. G. (1967). Money, Prices and Fiscal Lags: A Note on the Dynamics of Inflation. PSL Quarterly Review, 20(82), 258–267.
31. Patinkin, D. (1965). Money, Interest and Prices: An Integration of Monetary and Value Theory. New York: Harper & Row.
32. Patinkin, D. (1993). Israel’s Stabilization Program of 1985, or Some Simple Truths of Monetary Theory. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(2), 103–128.
33. Persson, M., Persson, T., & Svensson, L. (1998). Debt, Cash Flow and Inflation Incentives: A Swedish Example. In G. Calvo & M. King (Eds.), The Debt Burden and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy (pp. 28–62). London: Macmillan Press.
34. Pesaran, H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
35. Phelps, E. S. (1973). Inflation in the Theory of Public Finance. The Swedish Journal of Economics, 75(1), 67–82.
36. Piontkivsky, R., Bakun, M., Kryshko, M., & Sytnyk, T. (2001). The Impact of the Budget Deficit on Inflation in Ukraine. Kyiv: International Centre for Policy Studies.
37. Sargent, T. J., & Wallace, N. (1981). Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 5(3), 1–17.
38. Şen, H. (2003). Olivera-Tanzi Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Maliye Dergisi, 143, 30–57.
39. Solomon, M., & Wet, A. (2004). The Effect of a Budget Deficit on Inflation: The Case of Tanzania. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 7(1), 100–116.
40. Tanzi, V. (1977). Inflation, Lags in Collection, and the Real Value of Tax Revenue. IMF Staff Papers, 25(1), 154–167.
41. Tanzi, V. (1978). Inflation, Real Tax Revenue, and the Case for Inflationary Finance: Theory with an Application to Argentina. IMF Staff Papers, 25(3), 417–451.
42. Türk, İ. (1992). Kamu Maliyesi. Ankara: Turhan Kitabevi.
43. Vieira, C. (1999). The Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: A Study of the European Union. Doctoral Dissertation. United Kingdom: Loughborough University.
44. Vieira, C. (2000). Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary? Evidence for the EU. Economic Research Paper, 7, 1–16.
45. Wang, Q. (2015). Fixed-Effect Panel Threshold Model Using Stata. The Stata Journal, 15(1), 121–134.
46. World Bank. (2025). World Development Indicators (WDI). Retrieved September 20, 2025, from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
47. World Bank. (2025). Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). Retrieved September 20, 2025, from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators