Enflasyonun Mali Performansa Etkileri: Gelişmiş Ekonomiler İçin Panel Eşik Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2002-2023 dönemi için IMF sınıflandırmasına göre gelişmiş ekonomiler olarak sınıflandırılan 35 ülkeden elde edilen verileri kullanarak, enflasyon ile mali performansın bir göstergesi olan bütçe dengesi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Enflasyonun mali performans üzerindeki etkisinin doğrusal olmadığı varsayımıyla, analizde Hansen (1999) tarafından geliştirilen tek eşikli sabit etkiler panel eşik analizi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, enflasyonun reel kamu harcamalarını azaltmak suretiyle bütçe dengesini iyileştirebileceğine işaret eden Patinkin etkisinin gelişmiş ekonomilerdeki her rejimde geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Dış denge, kamu borcu, ekonomik büyüme, siyasi istikrar ve nüfus artışı da mali performansın önemli belirleyicileridir. Yapılan sağlamlılık testi de bu sonuçları doğrulamaktadır. Bulgular, fiyat düzeylerindeki değişikliklerin kamu harcamaları yoluyla mali dengeyi etkileyebileceğini ve bu nedenle, kalıcı mali disiplin sağlamak için harcama verimliliğine dayalı politikaların önceliklendirilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon
• Mali Performans
• Bütçe Dengesi
• Olivera-Tanzi Etkisi
• Patinkin Etkisi

The Effects of Inflation on Fiscal Performance: A Panel Threshold Approach for Advanced Economies

Öz

This paper analyzes the link between inflation and the budget balance, considered a key measure of fiscal performance, by utilizing data from 35 IMF-designated advanced economies covering the years 2002 to 2023. Assuming that the effect of inflation on fiscal performance is not linear, the analysis uses the single-threshold fixed-effects panel threshold analysis method developed by Hansen (1999). The findings show that the Patinkin effect holds in every regime in advanced economies and that inflation improves the budget balance by reducing real public spending. External balance, public debt, economic growth, political stability, and population growth are also significant determinants of fiscal performance. Robustness test confirms these results. The findings indicate that changes in price levels can affect fiscal balance through public spending and, therefore, policies based on spending efficiency should be prioritized to ensure lasting fiscal discipline.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Inflation
• Fiscal Performance
• Budget Balance
• Olivera-Tanzi Effect
• Patinkin Effect

Kaynakça

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