Epidemic Update of COVID-19 in Turkey and Similarity with Other Countries: A Descriptive Study

Abstract

Objective: COVID-19 outbreaks firstly observed in mainland in China have been reported in more than 200 countries, including Turkey in a short period. This makes a serious threat to the world in terms of public health. Various effects caused by the epidemic are different in each country. The present study was aimed to compare the COVID-19 epidemic parameters in Turkey with countries with the most reported confirmed cases around the world.
Methods: The relevant data set by country between 22 January and 6 May 2020, associated with the cases that 57-day after the first COVID-19 report, was obtained from a detailed research from the official database of Johns Hopkins University. Additionally, daily reports announced by World health Organization are included to the study. The first reported case by country was identified and a data set for the next 57-day epidemic progress was created.
Results: Although the number of confirmed cases sharply increased worldwide at the end of January 2020, the daily growth rate tended to decrease in the following months. The growth curve of Turkey was similar to Italy and the United States, however, the number of confirmed cases was different. Case fatality rate on the first 57-day, Turkey with 2,72% more higher than such countries Russia (%0,38), the United Kingdom (%1,57), and Germany (%0,42). Considering the ratio of the number of recovered patients to the number of deaths, it is seen that the highest country is Germany. Though it seems like a more moderate rate in Turkey, it is lower in the United Kingdom.
Conclusion: With the increasing number of cases, epidemic parameters of the outbreak in countries are changing rapidly. In particular, decision makers need to take measures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic at the social and individual level by using effectively national surveillance, monitoring and control systems.

Keywords

• Coronavirus
• COVID-19
• Outbreak
• Turkey

Türkiye’de COVID-19 Salgınına Yönelik Epidemik Gelişmeler ve Diğer Ülkelerle Olan Benzerlikleri: Tanımlayıcı Bir Çalışma

Abstract

Amaç: İlk olarak Çin’de tespit edilen COVID-19 salgını kısa sürede, Türkiye’de dahil, 200’den fazla ülkede raporlanmıştır. Bu durum toplum sağlığı açısından büyük bir tehdit oluşturmaktadır. Her ülkede salgının neden olduğu etkiler farklı olmaktadır. Bu çalışma ile Türkiye’deki ve en çok doğrulanmış vaka rapor edilen ülkelerdeki COVID-19 salgınına bağlı parametrelerin tanımlayıcı olarak karşılaştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Yöntem: Ülkelere göre ilk COVID-19 vakasının tespit edilmesinden sonraki 57 günlük sürede gelişen vakalara yönelik, 22 Ocak – 6 Mayıs 2020 tarihleri arasındaki ilgili veri seti Johns Hopkins Üniversitesine bağlı resmi veritabanından detaylı bir araştırma ile elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca Dünya Sağlık Örgütü’nün yapmış olduğu günlük raporlar da çalışmaya dahil edilmiştir. Ülkelere göre ilk rapor edilen vaka tarihi tanımlanmış ve sonraki 57 günlük salgın sürecine ait veri seti oluşturulmuştur. Bulgular: Ocak 2020 sonunda dünya genelinde vaka artış oranı aniden yükselmesine rağmen, sonraki aylarda günlük vaka artış oranı düşme eğilimi göstermiştir. Toplam vaka sayıları farklı olmakla birlikte, Türkiye’nin vaka artış eğrisi İtalya ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri ile benzerlik göstermektedir. İlk 57.günde vaka ölüm hızı Türkiye’de %2,72 ile Rusya (%0,38), İngiltere (%1,57) ve Almanya (%0,42) gibi ülkelerden daha fazladır. İyileşen hasta sayısının ölen sayısına olan orana bakıldığında en yüksek ülkenin Almanya olduğu görülmektedir. Türkiye’de bu oran daha ılımlı gibi görünmesine rağmen, İngiltere’de oldukça düşüktür. Sonuç: Vaka sayısının artmasıyla ülkelerde rapor edilen epidemik parametrelerde hızla değişmektedir. Özellikle karar vericilerin daha etkili vaka gözlem, takip ve kontrol sistemleri oluşturarak toplumsal ve bireysel düzeyde hastalığın etkilerini azaltmak için önlemler alması gereklidir.

Keywords

• Koronavirüs
• COVID-19
• salgın
• Türkiye

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