COVID-19 Pandemisinin Kompartman Modelleri: Sistematik Bir Literatür Taraması

Öz

COVID-19 hızla tüm dünyada yayılırken, bu pandeminin çeşitli yönleriyle ilgili çok sayıda çalışma yayınlanmıştır. Pandeminin dinamiklerini araştırmak, bulaşma mekanizmasını anlamak ve önleyici tedbirleri değerlendirmek için farklı yöntemler önerilmiştir. Matematiksel modeller, enfeksiyonun seyri için çeşitli parametreleri tahmin etmek ve hastalık kontrolü için etkili politikalar geliştirmek için dünya çapında sıklıkla kullanılmaktadır. Kompartman modelleri epidemiyolojideki en popüler matematiksel modellerdir. Bu modeller, popülasyonu durumlarına göre ayrı gruplara (kompartman) böler ve bir bireyin bir kompartmandan diğerine hareketini tanımlar. Pandeminin dinamiklerini modellemek ve karantina, yüz maskeleri ve aşılama gibi farklı girişimlerin etkinliğini ve gerekliliğini ölçmek için çeşitli kompartman modelleri ve varyasyonları geliştirilmiştir. Bu makale, literatürde COVID-19 pandemisini modellemek için önerilen farklı kompartman modelleri üzerine sistematik bir literatür taraması sunmaktadır. Bu modeller, modeldeki kompartman yapısı, modelin amacı, değişkenler ve metodolojik yaklaşımlar temelinde ayrıntılı olarak ele alınmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kompartman modelleri
• Koronavirüs
• COVID-19
• Salgın modelleme

Compartmental Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Literature Review

Abstract

As COVID-19 rapidly spread all around the world, different methods have been proposed to explore the dynamics of the pandemic, understand the transmission mechanism, and assess the preventive measures. Mathematical models are frequently used worldwide to predict various parameters and develop effective policies for disease control. Compartmental models are the most popular mathematical models in epidemiology. These models divide the population into distinct groups (compartments) based on their status and describe the movement of an individual from one compartment to another. Various compartmental models and their variations have been developed to model the pandemic dynamics and measure the efficiency and necessity of different initiatives such as lockdowns, face masks, and vaccination. This paper provides a systematic literature review on different compartmental models proposed to model the COVID-19 pandemic. These models are discussed in detail based on the compartmental structure in the model, aim of the model, variables, and methodological approaches.

Keywords

• Compartmental model
• Coronavirus
• COVID-19
• Epidemic modelling

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