IS THERE A CO-INTEGRATION BETWEEN EXTERNAL DEBT INTEREST RATE AND GLOBALIZATION? THE CASE OF TURKEY

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2, 53 - 68, 30.06.2019

Cüneyt Koyuncu Seyfettin Ünal

https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.584352

Öz

Çalışmada
küreselleşme ve dış borç faiz oranı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki
araştırılmıştır. Kullanılan veri seti Türkiye’ye ilişkin 1970-2014 dönemini
kapsayan bir zaman serisidir. Öncelikle, serilerin durağan olup olmadığını
belirlemek üzere birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Daha sonra, serilerin uzun
dönemde birlikte hareket edip etmediği sınır testi ile incelenmiştir. Ardından,
ARDL modelinin hata düzeltme formu kullanılarak değişkenlerin hem kısa hem de
uzun dönem katsayılarının tahminlemesi yapılmıştır. Son olarak, seriler
arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi bulunup bulunmadığı nedensellik testiyle
incelenmiştir. Ulaşılan bulgular, küreselleşme ve dış borç faiz oranı
serilerinin eş-bütünleşik olduğunu; dolayısıyla, uzun dönemde birlikte
hareketini ortaya koymaktadır. Uzun dönemli katsayı tahminlemesi,
küreselleşmenin Türkiye’nin dış borç faiz oranı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak
anlamlı olmak üzere düşürücü bir etkisi olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca,
küreselleşmeden dış borç faiz oranına doğru tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin varlığı
tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, resmi ve özel kredi verici olmak üzere
iki farklı borç sağlayıcının uyguladığı faiz oranları için de geçerliliğini
korumaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization, External Debt, ARDL Model, Turkey.

Kaynakça

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