Araştırma Makalesi
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IS THERE A CO-INTEGRATION BETWEEN EXTERNAL DEBT INTEREST RATE AND GLOBALIZATION? THE CASE OF TURKEY

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2, 53 - 68, 30.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.584352

Öz

Çalışmada
küreselleşme ve dış borç faiz oranı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki
araştırılmıştır. Kullanılan veri seti Türkiye’ye ilişkin 1970-2014 dönemini
kapsayan bir zaman serisidir. Öncelikle, serilerin durağan olup olmadığını
belirlemek üzere birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Daha sonra, serilerin uzun
dönemde birlikte hareket edip etmediği sınır testi ile incelenmiştir. Ardından,
ARDL modelinin hata düzeltme formu kullanılarak değişkenlerin hem kısa hem de
uzun dönem katsayılarının tahminlemesi yapılmıştır. Son olarak, seriler
arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi bulunup bulunmadığı nedensellik testiyle
incelenmiştir. Ulaşılan bulgular, küreselleşme ve dış borç faiz oranı
serilerinin eş-bütünleşik olduğunu; dolayısıyla, uzun dönemde birlikte
hareketini ortaya koymaktadır. Uzun dönemli katsayı tahminlemesi,
küreselleşmenin Türkiye’nin dış borç faiz oranı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak
anlamlı olmak üzere düşürücü bir etkisi olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca,
küreselleşmeden dış borç faiz oranına doğru tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin varlığı
tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, resmi ve özel kredi verici olmak üzere
iki farklı borç sağlayıcının uyguladığı faiz oranları için de geçerliliğini
korumaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • BONIZZI, Bruno, Christina LASKARIDIS & Jan TOPOROWSKI (2015), ‘‘Developing Countries’ External Debt and International Financial Integration’’, Financialisation, Economy, Society and Sustainable Development Working Paper Series, 121. BORIO, C. and P. DISYATAT (2011), ‘‘Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Link or No Link?’’, BIS Working Paper, Bank for International Settlements. BOYD, John H., and Bruce D. SMITH (1997), ‘‘Capital Market Imperfections, International Credit Markets, and Nonconvergence,’’ Journal of Economic Theory, 73, 335–364. BRONER, F., T. DIDIER, A. ERCE and S.L. SCHMUKLER (2011), ‘‘Gross Capital Flows: Dynamics and Crises’’, Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank. BRUNO, V. and H.S. Shin (2013), ‘‘Capital Flows, Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity’’, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper. CALDERÓN, C. & M. KUBOTA (2013), ‘‘Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?’’ Journal of International Economics, 89, 122–142. CALVO, G.A. (1998) ‘‘Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops’’, Journal of Applied Economics, 1, 35–54. CALVO, G.A., L. LEIDERMAN & C.M. REINHART (1993), ‘‘Capital inflows to Latin America: The role of external factors’’, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 40, 108–151. CALVO, D.R., J.H. STEFANOUDAKIS & J.M. BLANCO TAMES (2009), ‘‘External Debt and Economic Growth’’, Malardalen University. Retrieved October 26, 2015, from http://mdh.diva-portal.org/smash/ get/diva2:236410/FULLTEXT01.pdf. CAVALLO, E.A., A. POWELL, M. PEDEMONTE and P. TAVELLA (2013), ‘‘A New Taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops Should Countries Be Most Concerned About?’’, Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank. CHANG, C.P., C.C. LEE, M.C. HSIEH (2011), ‘‘Globalization, Real Output and Multiple Structural Breaks’’, Global Economic Review, 40(4), 421-444. COORAY, A., I. GADDIS & K.M. WACKER (2012), ‘‘Globalization and female labor force participation in developing countries: An empirical (re-)assessment, Courant Research Centre: Poverty’’, Equity and Growth-Discussion Papers, No. 129. CORDELLA, T., L.A. RICCI & M. RUIZ ARRANZ (2010), ‘‘Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance?’’, IMF Staff Papers, 57(1), 1–24. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2009.20. DOOLEY, M., E. FERNANDEZ-ARIAS & I. SHIN (1997), ‘‘Private inflows when crises are anticipated: A case study of Korea’’, Unpublished manuscript. DREHER, A. (2006), ‘‘Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from A New Index of Globalization’’, Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091-1110. EDWARDS, S. (2001), ‘‘Does the Current Account Matter?’’, Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research. GERTLER, Mark and Kenneth ROGOFF (1990), ‘‘North-South Lending and Endogenous Domestic Capital Market Inefficiencies’’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 26, 245–266. JALLES, J.T. (2011), ‘‘The Impact of Democracy and Corruption on the Debt-Growth Relationship in Developing Countries’’, Journal of Economic Development, 36(4), 41–72. JOHNSON, K.H. (2009), ‘‘Gross or Net International Financial Flows: Understanding the Financial Crisis’’, CGS Working Paper, Council on Foreign Relations. KOSE, M.A., E.S. PRASAD and M.E. TERRONES (2003), ‘‘Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility’’, IMF Staff Papers, 50, 119–142. KOYUNCU, Julide Yalcinkaya and Mustafa UNVER (2017), ‘‘The Association between Corruption and Globalization in African Countries’’, Social Sciences Research Journal, Volume 6, Issue 4, pp.20-28. KUCERA, D. (2001), ‘‘Foreign Trade of manufactures and men and women’s employment and earnings in Germany and Japan’’, International Review of Applied Economics, 15(2), 130-148. doi. 10.1080/02692170151136998. MATSUYAMA, Kiminori (2004), ‘‘Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking and Endogenous Inequality of Nations’’, Econometrica, 72, 853–884. MATSUYAMA, Kiminori (2008), ‘‘Aggregate Implications of Credit Market Imperfections’’, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2007, 22, 1–60. MILESI-FERRETT, G.M. and A. RAZIN, A. (1998), ‘‘Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities’’, Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research. PATTILLI, C., H. POIRSON & L. RICCI (2002), ‘‘External Debt and Growth’’. Finance & Development, 39(2), 32–35. MONTIEL, P. & M.C. REINHART (2001), ‘‘The dynamics of capital movements to emerging economies during the 1990s’’, UNU/WIDER Project on Short-term Capital Movements and Balance of Payments Crises. OKSAK, Yuksel and Julide Yalcinkaya KOYUNCU (2017), ‘‘Does Globalization Affect Female Labor Force Participation: Panel Evidence’’, Journal of Economics Bibliography, Volume 4, Issue 4, pp.381-387. REINHART, C.M. & K.S. ROGOFF (2010), ‘‘Growth in a Time of Debt’’. The American Economic Review, 100(2), 573–578. doi:10.1257/aer.100.2.573. REISEN, H. (1998), ‘‘Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits’’, OECD Development Centre Working Paper, OECD Publishing. SCHCLAREK, A. (2004), ‘‘Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries’’, Lund: Lund University, Retrieved October 26, 2015, from https://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=1387405&fileOId=2061440. SCHULARICK, M. (2006), ‘‘A tale of ‘Two Globalizations’: Capital flows from rich to poor in eras of global finance’’, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 11, 339-354.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm İktisadi ve idari Bilimler Sayısı
Yazarlar

Cüneyt Koyuncu Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-8638-2761

Seyfettin Ünal

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Koyuncu, C., & Ünal, S. (2019). IS THERE A CO-INTEGRATION BETWEEN EXTERNAL DEBT INTEREST RATE AND GLOBALIZATION? THE CASE OF TURKEY. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 17(2), 53-68. https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.584352